The influence of the smaller parties, the effect of a potential overhang (on both the left and the right), and the impact of enrolment and turnout are all likely to play a greater role than ever in determining who takes power.
As the final countdown begins, let’s take a look at what some different scenarios could mean for the left and right’s pathways to power, with the usual caveat that until November 7, anything can happen.
A late surge
Throughout the election campaign, the general conclusion from most poll results has been that Opportunity holds the balance of power. Neither the left nor the right blocs have been able to cobble together enough seats to create a majority.
For the most part, the parties have stayed in the same general zone of support in the various polls conducted in recent weeks.
National and Labour appear to be somewhere in the late 20s, the Green Party is around 15%, Act and NZ First are sitting just over or below 10% and Opportunity is slightly above 5%. Te Pāti Māori isn’t going for the party vote, with its support sitting, in many cases, at less than 1%.
Christopher Luxon at a National Party event in West Auckland on Sunday. Photo / Dean Purcell
There is a scenario where we see a late surge, with one party gaining momentum and dominating the last few days of the campaign.
However, given voting has already begun and is outpacing 2023’s turnout, even if one party did increase its support this week, the impact on the overall result may be small.
Similarly, there’s always a chance of a major gaffe that turns people off voting for a party.
This election has been remarkable in that there has been little in terms of scandal. The closest the campaign got was the furore over politicians taking pictures with gang members, with a Labour candidate resigning.
That ultimately appears to have had little impact on polling, potentially showing that support for parties has become fairly entrenched.
Regardless, we should never rule out a party making a late break, pulling up its bloc’s overall support and getting them across the finish line.
The Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong. Photo / Dean Purcell
Opportunity in or out?
Many polls are forecasting a situation where Opportunity crosses the all-important 5% threshold, gains a handful of seats in Parliament and gets to decide which bloc takes office.
Opportunity is running on the argument that it is a centrist party and is open to working with either side of politics. It’s a position some commentators argue is undermined both by its policies, which skew left, and by comments from its leader Qiulae Wong, such as considering ruling out working with NZ First.
If it is in the kingmaker position post-November 7, Opportunity is promising to speak with the party with the most seats first. It’s leaving itself open to different governing arrangements, such as being in a formal coalition or providing confidence and supply. It may also decide to sit on the crossbenches.
Opportunity entering Parliament currently appears to be among Labour’s best paths to power.
While the Green Party is recording historically high support, Labour is stagnant, sitting just above what it received in 2023 when it lost power.
Labour could surprise and record a result on Saturday larger than what we’re seeing in the polls. But it’s still highly unlikely Labour and the Greens together will be able to form a Government, meaning they will need friends.
Te Pāti Māori could contribute a number of MPs – the general consensus is probably four – determined by how many of the Māori electorates it wins.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins delivering a speech at a party rally in Wesley, Auckland on Saturday. Photo / Jamie Ensor
Depending on how the cards fall, a three-party left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could reach a majority. But that isn’t currently being reflected in poll results.
That means the threesome will likely need to become a foursome, with Opportunity’s seats roped in (with the proviso that Opportunity agrees to support the left bloc, rather than the right).
Even if Labour could govern with just the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, it may prefer to have Opportunity inside the tent.
Having Opportunity as an alternative would give the red party more leverage in negotiations, as well as a safety net if the numbers are tight and there’s any mid-term turmoil or falling-out.
National could also make a play for Opportunity’s support if the right otherwise doesn’t have the numbers.
While leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity, there are few who believe the National leader wouldn’t cave and pick up the phone if it was his only path to returning to the Beehive.
The coalition meant David Seymour and Winston Peters working together. Photo / Mark Mitchell
If National is the largest party – and there are indications it could be, especially if it holds most of its electorate seats – then the centre-right party may attempt to get Opportunity on board with Act and NZ First.
Considering the comments political figures on the right have made about Opportunity and Wong, that may appear like a long shot. But there was also a time when many didn’t think David Seymour and Winston Peters could work together.
There is a scenario where National, Act and NZ First collectively lift their support and can govern again, even with Opportunity in Parliament.
That would be helped if National creates an overhang by winning more electorate seats than what the party vote entitles it to (more on that below).
The current coalition’s chances of returning to office appear to increase if Opportunity just falls short of 5%.
Without Opportunity in Parliament, the seats it might otherwise have taken would instead be allocated among the parties that do cross the threshold.
With National, Act and NZ First collectively polling higher than Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori in many polls, that could be enough to push the right into a majority.
Green Party Co-leaders Marama Davidson (left) and Chlöe Swarbrick. Photo / Michael Craig
The overhang
One of the biggest variables for this election, on both the left and the right of politics, is the potential for a larger-than-usual overhang.
For the uninitiated, an overhang is caused when a party wins more electorates than the number of seats it is entitled to based solely on the party vote.
For example, if the party vote entitles a party to 30 seats in Parliament, but it wins 32 electorates, there are two extra seats added to the House.
That expands the size of Parliament, but also the number of seats required to have a majority in it.
Te Pāti Māori is deliberately attempting to engineer an overhang for the left. It is wanting to suppress its party vote, which it appears to be doing successfully, while winning individual electorates.
The party wants its supporters to direct their party vote to Labour or the Greens, increasing the number of seats those parties receive in Parliament. Te Pāti Māori’s extra electorate seats would then be added on top, helping the left bloc.
Te Pati Maori co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (left) and Rawiri Waititi. Photo / Mark Mitchell
There’s also the potential for a large overhang caused by results on the right.
The logic normally flows that when a party loses support, as National has over the past three years, it also loses a large number of electorates it holds.
However, that requires the opposing party, in this case Labour, to increase its support. While Labour has nudged up from 2023, it hasn’t capitalised on National’s fall.
That creates a scenario where National could hold on to many of its electorates. It is still likely to lose some which were only marginal wins in 2023.
This is what some on the right who promote the vote-splitting strategy are seizing on.
They argue that since National could win more electorate seats than its proportional entitlement, a party vote for National won’t add any more seats and is therefore wasted.
The strategy is for party votes to instead be given to Act or NZ First, to grow their share of seats in Parliament. National’s electorate seats would be added to these.
This strategy has been disowned by National, however, which argues it is too risky and could confuse voters. It instead says the simplest way for a National Government to be re-elected is to vote National.
Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s chief political reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.