Planning for the future is key to survival, as laying out a so-called roadmap to follow will reduce any uncertainty, even when life gives you lemons. A State Pension rise could hide a surprise for one group, as they might receive more than expected. The forecasts have been made, and the outcome seems auspicious, to say the least. Discover what surprise might await one group of pensioners, and how this surprise could impact you in the near future. By staying informed, you could more easily navigate life’s State Pension surprises.

Pensions in the UK are changing steadily

According to Options Pensions, over the last decade and a half in the UK, life expectancy has increased, and the birth rate has decreased. In 2010, the ratio of people working to every pensioner was 3 to 1. Compared to 1901, the ratio was 10 people working for every pensioner, marking a significant decrease over a century.

For this reason alone, the UK Government must increase its expenditure on the State Pension. Predictions have indicated that the UK Government must spend 11.4% of the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) on pensions alone by 2050. This is one of the reasons why several changes have been made to the UK’s State Pension, including a State Pension rise.

The State Pension rise could hide a surprise

State Pension rises are not uncommon. In fact, the UK State Pension rises annually, and thanks to the ‘triple lock’ guarantee for pensioners, they could expect a significant boost soon. The triple lock scheme is simple, as it enables the State Pension to increase along with the highest figure of one of the following factors:

Inflation, or
The average earnings growth, or
2.5%

A report by The Sun highlighted the revised predictions released by the Office for National Statistics, which indicated that the average earnings growth (which includes bonuses) from May to July 2025 was 4.8%, and this is higher than the previously predicted 4.7%. Which means the upcoming State Pension rise could hide a surprise, and one group may receive more than expected.

One group could receive more than expected

Seeing as the average earnings growth was the highest among the three factors, the new State Pension will be based on the same growth percentage. This means that one group of pensioners could expect a rise of over £10 more than the rise based on the previous month’s predictions. According to a partner at LCP, Steve Webb:

“We can now be pretty certain that the new state pesion and the basic state pension will rise by 4.8%.”

The new predictions mean that, for those who reached pension age after April 2016, the weekly new State Pension will be £241.30. Pensioners who reached pension age before April 2016 could expect the basic State Pension to rise to £184.90 weekly. However, this higher rise could push certain pensioners over the threshold and result in millions losing out on the Winter Fuel Payment.

Webb added that millions could be missing out on the State Pension in 2027 due to the tax threshold, should allowances not rise as well. For 2026, the State Pension rate is just below the income tax threshold.

Only time will tell what will happen with the income tax threshold allowances and the future State Pension rises. So, not to sound too cliche, but may the odds forever be in your favour. We hope that it will all work out for the better in the end. By staying up to date with the latest news on the State Pension, you will be able to improve your planning for the future. For more information about the new State Pension, please review the statement by the UK Government on the State Pension rise for 2026.

Disclaimer: This content is informational only and does not supersede or replace the Department for Work and Pensions’ or HMRC’s own publications and notices. Always verify any specific dates and amounts by following the direct links in our article to the institutions or by consulting your local DWP field office or tax advisor.