Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Ahead of third-quarter earnings season in Canada’s technology sector, National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse emphasizes “performance this year has been narrow, requiring more attention to stock selection.”

“Year-to-date, the S&P / TSX Info Tech is up 20 per cent vs. the broader S&P 500 Info Tech Index up 21 per cent (as of October 22 close),” he said. “While AI (and related) names have seen outsized performance, there have been pockets of outperformers across special situations. This is not dissimilar in the U.S. where mega caps have been led by their AI leverage at scale. Interestingly, while AI has driven that narrow performance, it’s also cast a cloud across the technology sector – specifically software and, more recently, IT services as it relates to the potential disruption it may cause in those markets. Aside from the AI theme and special situations, we continue to see potential M&A activity creating opportunity for investors within our coverage universe. As for where we’re sitting against those themes from a specific stock perspective, Canadian Technology names that have flourished year-to-date include Celestica (up 186 per cent), Coveo (up 19 per cent), OpenText (up 38 per cent) and Shopify (up 52 per cent) as it relates to AI. As for unique special situations, we’ve seen gains in names like Kraken Robotics (up 165 per cent) and Zedcor (up 79 per cent), and for M&A, TELUS Digital (up 12 per cent) is the most recent beneficiary.

“Looking to year end, our select picks at the time of writing are Shopify, OpenText and Kinaxis.”

In a client report, Mr. Tse disputes the common perception that valuations for stocks in the sector are now far too high. Instead, he recommends investors look to future potential.

“Broadly, the U.S. Info Tech Index trades around 37 times forward P/E today – in Canada, it’s closer to 53 times,“ he said. ”While high in absolute terms, we need to take into account the expected relative growth rates. All that had us updating our implied growth analysis. For those following our research, you’ve seen this analysis in the past – in short, it’s an internally built scorecard that assesses what valuations imply for growth for each of our coverage names – allowing us to make a call on whether those implied growth rates are reasonable based on our expectations of the respective coverage names outlooks.

“Some of the core inputs used to perform this analysis are: Long-term industry growth assumptions, based on more mature peers across the past 10 years to lend perspective; Discount rates reflecting the interest rate environment and respective risk premiums, corporate capital structures and operational risk; Normalized net profit margins, benchmarked to mature peers. … While headline valuations appear elevated in certain pockets, our implied growth analysis shows many of our favoured names, while seemingly expensive on 1-year forward valuations, are less so against the longer-term outlook.”

Mr. Tse made these target adjustments for stocks in his coverage universe:

* Docebo Inc. (DCBO-Q/DCBO-T, “sector perform”) to US$31 from US$35. The average target on the Street is US$50.56.

Analyst: “We continue to see a balanced risk-to-reward profile. In our view, the stock needs a consistent string of no “one-off” quarters before it can pick up a sustained valuation re-rating. Given that, we maintain our Sector Perform rating on a revised DCF-based target price of US$31.”

* Kraken Robotics Inc. (PNG-X, “outperform”) to $7.50 from $5. Average: $5.25.

Analyst: “We expect in-line Q3 results with sequential improvements in both revenue and Adj. EBITDA; however, Kraken’s business can be inherently lumpy due to the timing of product deliveries … Shares are up significantly across the past month-plus (up over 100 per cent since early September) on the back of Anduril’s Australian Navy win. Given this sharp move, we expect near-term share price volatility, but our long-term thesis and conviction in the name remain strong.”

* Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD-N/LSPD-T, “sector perform”) to US$13 from US$15. Average: US$13.64.

Analyst: “We continue to believe the Company must demonstrate a meaningful re-acceleration of customer location growth before it can see a sustained (upward) valuation re-rating, which is starting to gain some early traction (i.e., moving from 3-per-cent year-over-year growth in FQ4 to 5 per cent in FQ1’26) but below Lightspeed’s three-year CAGR [compound annual growth rate] target of 10–15 per cent for Net Customer Locations from FY26 – 28.“

* Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T, “sector perform”) to $7 from $5.75. Average: $8.11.

Analyst: “We’re expecting essentially in-line FQ4’25 (CQ3) results for Real Matters. Recall in FQ3 (Jun) Real Matters delivered results that were below expectations given a softer spring market, a reversion to mean versus prior year volumes, and distortions in the mortgage broken channel where volumes were being pushed to non-banks. Both Net revenue and Adj. EBITDA came in below expectations at US$11.9-milion and US$0.3-milion, respectively. That said, Real Matters continued to onboard new clients, launching four new clients in the quarter – one being the largest credit union in the U.S. onto its Title platform. Subsequent to quarter end, the Company launched its second Tier 1 lender in U.S. Title and a top 15 lender in U.S. Appraisal.”

* Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N/SHOP-T, “outperform”) to US$200 from US$180. Average: US$161.80.

Analyst: “We continue to believe Shopify will deliver outsized growth along with scaling operating leverage. We reiterate our Outperform rating and revise our target price to US$200 off increasing confidence in Shopify’s execution on expanding growth drivers. Our updated DCF-based target implies a valuation of 18.6 times EV/Sales (was 16.8 times) on FY26E – we think it’s important to note the implied valuation on next year’s forecasts does not reflect the scaling multiple growth drivers.”

Along with his Shopify change, Mr. Tse reiterated “”outperform” ratings for his other top picks Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T) and Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) with targets of $240 and US$45, respectively. The averages are $226.28 and US$37.60.

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Following adjustments to Scotia’s annual gold and silver price forecasts through 2028 as well as its long-term assumptions, equity analyst Tanya Jakusconek made five rating changes to stocks in her coverage universe.

“We have increased our gold price forecast to $3,450/oz, $3,800/oz, $3,600/oz and $3,500/oz from $3,250/oz, $3,200/oz, $2,800/oz and $2,300 for 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. Our LT (2029+) price increases to $2,600/oz from $2,300/oz. We have also increased our silver price forecast to$38.50/oz, $42/oz, $40/oz, $35/oz (from $34.50/oz, $33/oz, $30/oz, $28/oz) for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028. ”Our LT silver price (2029+) increased to $30/oz from $27/oz,” she said. The increase in prices is supported by economic uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank buying.”

She upgraded upgraded Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, NGT-T), Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N, ABX-T) and to AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU-N) to “sector outperform” ratings from “sector perform” previously, pointing to “higher gold price (have above average costs).”

“We flag that we expect better operating performance from these companies and valuations are still attractive,” she said.

Her target for Newmont rose to US$114 from US$71.50, while her targets for Barrick and AngloGold increased to US$43 and US$90, respectively from US$27.50 and US$55.

Conversely, citing recent share price performance, Ms. Jakusconek downgraded Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM-N, TFPM-T) and OR Royalties Inc. (OR-N) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” ratings. Their targets are now US$35 and US$41, respectively, rising from US$29 and US$33.

“Furthermore, there is less sensitivity in our valuation to higher gold prices with the streaming companies. Operators are preferred to streamers at this point (better margin expansion and lower valuations),” she added.

The analyst added: “Top picks also include AEM, KGC, NEM, B and AU in the operators and WPM (silver exposure) and RGLD (growth and diversification) in the streamers.”

In a concurrent report, analyst Ovais Habib upgraded SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $39 target, up from $19 and above the $31.31 average.

“We are upgrading SSRM to Sector Outperform (from Sector Perform) based on an improving production profile at Marigold (as stripping at Red Dot gives way to higher grade ore), plus pending permit approvals at CC&V which could allow for significant mine life extension under Amednment 14 (to be further outlined in an upcoming technical report update), and a potential restart of operations at Çöpler after almost 2 years of rehabilitation work,“ he explained. ”We expect free cash flow to inflect higher in 2026 through to 2027 on the back of higher gold production and reduced care & maintenance costs, with longer-term optionality provided by Çöpler and Hod Maden.”

Mr. Habib added: “Our top picks for large intermediate producers are AGI, EDV, and PAAS; mid-cap intermediate producer picks include DPM, KNT, NGD, OGC, OLA, SSRM and TXG.”

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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin continues to see Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) as a “compelling investment opportunity” following Wednesday’s release of third-quarter results that he saw as “solid … especially impressive given the weak industrial and macro updates we got during Q3.”

Before the bell, the Alberta-based trucking and logistics company reported adjusted EBITDA of $96-million, exceeding both the analyst’s $91-million estimate and the consensus projection of $95-million. Revenue of $562-million fell short of the Street’s $604-million forecast, however Mr. Spracklin said that result was offset by stronger-than-anticipated EBITDA margin of 17.2 per cent (versus 15.7 per cent).

The analyst attributed a 1.4-per-cent drop in the company’s share price on Wednesday to “commentary on the outlook, with the soft backdrop expected to continue into early 2026, according to management.”

“Management indicated on the conference call that achieving the $350-million EBITDA target for 2025 is unlikely, primarily due to delays in closing the Cole Group acquisition and weaker than expected commodity prices that are negatively affecting the S&I [Specialized & Industrial Services] business,” he said. “Management was vague when asked to provide updated 2025 expectations except to say they do not expect any material changes in the markets and verticals they serve in the near-term. That said, consensus estimates had already reflected the likelihood that results would not meet guidance. Our 2025 EBITDA estimate in fact moves higher to $334-million (from $326-million) mainly due to stronger than expected Q3 results and ahead of consensus coming into the quarter of $328-million. That said, our estimate of $334-million remains below the company’s formal $350-million guide and consistent with the language noted above.

“We got some potential drivers of upside into next year. Key for us on the call was commentary that emerging driver constraints in the U.S. may positively impact rates in Canada and that there is potential upside to demand from ‘nation-building’ projects. We see this as a driver of upside into next year; and importantly one that we do not believe is priced into shares, which are yielding 10 per cent on our 2026 FCF estimates.”

Reaffirming his “outperform” recommendation for Mullen shares, Mr. Spracklin raised his target to $17 from $15 to “reflect potential upside to pricing, due to indication capacity may tighten, and to demand, reflecting nation building projects.” The average is $17.22.

Elsewhere, National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen trimmed his target shares to $16.50 from $17 with an “outperform” rating, seeing its results still showing a “stagnant market, but possibly some more optimism on the outlook.”

“Management previously indicated that hitting $350-million in EBITDA this year was unlikely (Cole Group acquisition took longer than expected, plus the S&I segment has been softer than originally anticipated), but reiterated its view that the current EBITDA run rate is at the $350-million level,” Mr. Doerksen said. “Management also expressed some optimism that long-awaited industry-wide trucking capacity supply reductions could materialize, noting that the U.S. is becoming more restrictive on commercial driver’s licenses and in Canada there appears to be an increased focus on safety enforcement, which is removing some trucks from the market.”

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In a research report titled Collective Vision, Finnish Precision, National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco formalized coverage of a pair precious metals developers, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL-T) and Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP-T), saying initiation is “timely amidst a constructive gold tape with valuation re-rates in view, M&A topical and developers offering added share price torque later in the cycle.”

“Over the last 12 months, CNL shares are up 243 per cent (vs. S&P TSX Gold Index at up 91 per cent) as the mineralization potential at Apollo and other prospective opportunities have been proven out,“ he explained. ”RUP is up 29 per cent over the same L12M period with share performance moderated as it progresses through a period of tempered share price performance as conceptualized by the Lassonde curve, advancing through project, economic and financing de-risking, setting up for a re-rate into development and transition to positive FCF. Developers also benefit from tailwinds on M&A speculation, currently supported by several factors, in our view, including (i) backfilling declining or enhancing growth production profiles; (ii) limited organic opportunities after an extended period of underinvestment in exploration; (iii) acquirors with strong balance sheets and outlook for elevated FCF; (iv) labour pressures mitigated by M&A; and (v) improving sentiment toward M&A from corporates and investors.

“In our view, we are early in the M&A valuation curve and will see good development projects acquired in the $2 billion to $5 billion range and valuations are adjusted higher to match the potential FCF. We expect consolidation to initially focus on safe-haven jurisdictions, North America, Australia and Europe, as was the case with recent senior producer divestments, before shifting focus to Latam/South America, and elsewhere globally.”

Mr. DeMarco’s ratings and targets are:

* Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL-T) with an “outperform” rating and target of $22.75 per share. The average on the Street is $21.20.

“CNL is advancing the highly prospective Gold-Silver-Copper-Tungsten targets in Colombia’s prolific porphyry district, anchored by its flagship Apollo system at Guayabales, approximately 2 kilometres north of Aris Mining’s 8.8 million ounce gold Marmato complex,” he said. “Apollo is underpinned by an expanding database of wide, high-grade intercepts placing it among the major new discoveries this exploration cycle, and heightening anticipation for the maiden resource in H2/26. Our target and rating is based on a 0.60 times NAVPS estimate and considers several positive attributes including our estimated total resource of 9 million ounces, prospective exploration upside and development tailwinds in an existing mining district endowed with infrastructure, tempered by the early stage with pending resource estimation, scoping studies, PEA and FS de-risking.”

* Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP-T) with an “outperform” rating and $8.50 target. The average is $12.06.

“RUP is advancing the Ikkari Gold Project in Finland, with a Pre-Feasibility Study showing robust economics including an after-tax NPV5-per-cent of $2.5-billion, buoyant 49-per-cent IRR [internal rate of return] at $2,650/oz gold, and $575 million initial capex,” he said. “Ikkari’s reserve endowment of 3.5 million oz and total resource of 4.2 million oz, drive a mine plan with open pit production of 227k oz/yr over the first 10 years, a production wheelhouse of broad interest to intermediate/senior producers, at AISC [all-in sustaining cost] of $717/oz in the lowest global quartile with read through to a welcomed cost-reducing effect to any mine portfolio. Ikkari’s cost profile is underpinned by elevated open pit Reserve grade of 2.16 g/t, low strip ratio of 3.6:1, yielding FCF of $359 million/yr at $2,650/oz. After open pit depletion, transition to underground mining adds 10 years of production for an above-average 20-year life of mine (LOM). Multiple de-risking catalysts are on deck with the DFS (YE26), permitting (H1/28) and first pour (NBCMe Q1/31). Our target and rating is based on a 0.80x NAVPS and considers several positive attributes, including the advanced project stage, tier 1 jurisdiction discounted valuation and exploration upside, tempered by the pending de-risking of permitting, financing and development.”

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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting to see “solid” earnings per share growth from Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) when it reports its third-quarter results before the bell on Oct. 29, pointing to both sales and margin improvements.

He’s projecting earnings per share of 97 cents for the Montreal-based clothing manufacturer, falling in line with the Street’s estimate and a gain of 12 cents from the same period a year ago.

“We continue to expect market share gains in Activewear (recall, GIL expects the market to decline low-single digit in 2025),” he said. “Our Q3/25 sales forecast (up 1.6 per cent year-over-year) is in line with guidance (up low-single digit year-over-year).

“NBCM models 30 basis points year-over-year EBIT margin expansion to 22.7 per cent (in line with guidance), reflecting, among other factors, 45 bps gross margin expansion year-over-year (lower cotton/manufacturing costs, and pricing), partly offset by 15 bps year-over-year higher SG&A rate (incl. D&A).”

Mr. Shreedhar now expects Gildan’s US$4.4-billion acquisition of Hanesbrands Inc. to close by the end of the first quarter of 2026, which is a delay from his previous forecast of the beginning of that fiscal period.

“Our analysis of GIL’s F-4 filing, which provide pro forma combined entity estimates, could suggest NBCM may be conservative, although disclosure prohibits fulsome reconciliation,” he added. “The F-4 projections reflect U.S. GAAP, and conversion to IFRS would raise EBITDA (NBCM is IFRS). Also, NBCM estimates do not reflect $200-million of one-time costs (in F-4).”

“Our estimates are adjusted accordingly. We hold a favourable view on the acquisition of HBI by GIL. In our view, the consolidated entity merges GIL’s manufacturing/wholesale strengths with HBI’s branded/retail strengths, possibly unlocking synergies beyond what management articulated (greater cost synergies).”

Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Gildan shares, Mr. Shreedhar increased his target by $1 to $92 to reflect foreign exchange considerations. The average on the Street is $90.68.

“We expect the combined entity to trade at a discount to GIL’s historical range given HBI’s lacklustre historical performance. As GIL demonstrates improvement in HBI’s organic growth, and delivers against its 2026-2028 outlook (which also reflects growth in GIL’s core business), we expect the multiple to reconstitute, and possibly expand beyond GIL’s five-year historical average (we view HBI to ultimately be less volatile than GIL’s historical business),” he said.

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Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho sees Zedcor Inc. (ZDC-X) “positioned at the intersection of physical guard disruption and compelling value proposition (plenty of white space)” and believes it “presents a rare land-grab opportunity” for the Calgary-based company.

Accordingly, he initiated coverage of the provider of turnkey and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions with a “buy” recommendation.

“We are positive on ZDC for several reasons: (1) our in-depth TAM analysis suggests significant growth opportunity, sizing up a potential $33.6-billion TAM [total addressable market]; (2) U.S. expansion provides attractive growth catalysts; (3) we see ZDC as a potential take-out candidate from strategics and PE acquirers; (4) ZDC presents a unique counter-cyclical play— generally, in a tougher macro environment, propensity for crime and theft could increase; this drives greater adoption for ZDC products and surveillance services,” said Mr. Ho.

In a report titled Delivering 24/7 surveillance monitoring without 24/7 payroll, Mr. Ho said Zedcor differentiates itself by “delivering a fully integrated, end-to-end security solution that can be more effective and cost-effective when compared with traditional physical security alternatives, mainly security guards.”

“Unlike the traditional security model, which relies on static closed-circuit cameras or on-site guards, ZDC’s live surveillance is managed remotely by Canada-based operators and powered by proprietary 24/7 monitoring technology,” he added. “A new Houston-based monitoring centre is slated to open in the coming months. This system enables proactive, realtime detection and response to trespassing incidents, theft prevention and vandalism, with a proven crime deterrence rate of more than 95 per cent. When necessary, law enforcement or private security teams can also be dispatched to follow up, usually within 4–6 minutes. This integrated approach not only enhances safety but also delivers meaningful cost savings—reducing theft-related losses and minimizing reliance on expensive personnel (25–60 per cent cheaper than security guards).”

He added: “We conducted a comprehensive, bottom-up analysis on ZDC’s potential TAM where we scrutinized 10 sub-sectors identifying a more than 1.1 million tower opportunity across North America, essentially 3 times larger than ZDC’s estimate of 374,000+. If ZDC maintains its current 10–15-per-cent market share with a 25-per-cent market penetration, ZDC could grow to 28,000–42,000 towers (14–21 times expansion from today’s fleet) with $840-million to $1.26-billion in revenue. Assuming a 40–45-per-cent adjusted EBITDA margin benefiting from economies of scale, ZDC adjusted EBITDA is poised to reach $336–567-million vs $18-million in 1H25 annualized EBITDA.”

He set a target of $7.50 per share, exceeding the average target of $6.39.

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In other analyst actions:

* CIBC’s Paul Holden cut his target for Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T) to $74 from $80, keeping a “neutral” rating. The average is $79.20.

* In response to the late Wednesday announcement of a strategic restructuring program that includes a $67-million charge and a 8-per-cent headcount reduction, TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding raised his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $105, exceeding the $104.20 average, from $100 with a “hold” rating.

“This restructuring program is intended to sharpen EQB’s capital allocation on core growth areas and indicates a lower expense run-rate. Given our higher F2026 EPS forecast, our target price moves to $105 (from $100). We expect the shares to respond positively to the restructuring program. We are maintaining our Hold rating and expect to revisit as we approach FQ4/25 results,” said Mr. Ryding.

* While he expects Lithium Royalty Corp. (LIRC-T) to report weaker revenue for the third quarter than the Street expects on Nov. 4, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé raised his target for its shares by $1 to $8 with an “outperform” rating.

“The quarter should show sequential improvement in LCE t [lithium carbonate equivalent tons] received, driven by sales timing at Grota do Cirilo and a small contribution from Tres Quebradas, as highlighted in Triple Flag Precious Metals’ Q3/25 preliminary revenue results,” he said. “We still look for a CFO inflection in early 2027 at our price deck and spot prices.

“As we look ahead to the next quarter, we also expect a quarter-over-quarter improvement with LIRC adding the Mariana asset owned by Ganfeng Lithium as a contributor and further derisking its revenue. Along with the preview, we lift our target multiple from 1.20 times to 1.30 times, still below small royalty peers average target multiples of 1.40 times, and raise our price target … Our near-term stance on lithium pricing remains cautious, despite the Q3 speculation-driven rally tied to curtailment headlines in China. We still view potential ex-China curtailments as the most reliable path to a more durable price recovery; we carry a constructive turn beginning in late 2026 into 2027.”

* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young raised his Power Corporation of Canada (POW-T) target to $65 from $60 with a “buy” rating. The average is $61.14.

“Simple math suggests POW could provide a 14-per-cent total return over the next year assuming no change in discount to NAV, with an attractive upside vs downside profile,” he said.

* Following in-line third-quarter results, TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil bumped his Street-low Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) target to $80 from $77 with a “hold” rating. The average is $102.87.

“PD is increasingly leaning in to its growth-oriented strategy that directs capital to upgrades in order to capitalize on greenshoots in U.S. gas basins at a time of heightened broader macro uncertainty. Commodity price strength/weakness will determine the success of this strategy in our view. We remain cautious given the recent deterioration in the crude oil macro,” said Mr. MacNeil.

* TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher raised his StorageVault Canada Inc. (SVI-T) target to $6 from $5.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $5.45.

“We think the second consecutive quarter of 5-per-cent-plus SPNOI [same-property net operating income] growth offsets the miss to our (arguably aggressive) Q3 AFFO estimate (cons appears to be closer to the 7.5-per-cent reported growth). Fundamentals are holding steady/improving with leads up year-over-year and housing activity beginning to pick up. Despite approximately 5 per cent lower estimates, our TP increases to $6 from $5.50 as we roll forward the valuation to 2027,” said Mr. Kelcher.

* CIBC’s Cosmos Chiu hiked his Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) target to $90 from $66 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $71.91.

* Seeing “value, momentum and execution” following Whitecap Resources Ltd.’s (WCP-T) quarterly results, National Bank’s Travis Wood raised his target for its shares to $15 from $14.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.58.