{"id":10449,"date":"2025-09-08T22:28:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T22:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/10449\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T22:28:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T22:28:07","slug":"the-fed-funds-market-is-pricing-in-a-10-chance-of-a-50-basis-point-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/10449\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed funds market is pricing in a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The one thing that doesn&#8217;t make sense to me about the Fed is the calendar.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">To my way of thinking, you want to make your decision-making and communication as systematic as possible. Yet the Fed has this funky calendar where they have different sets of information at each meeting.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Wouldn&#8217;t it be better to have a system where they get non-farm payrolls and CPI then a week to communicate it and then have the meeting?<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">This week illustrates the problem as the non-farm payrolls report came right before the Fed blackout. So now we&#8217;re in a position where we have to wait for some kind of leak or guess what the Fed will do after CPI. It&#8217;s a mess.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Right now market pricing is 10% for 50 bps but what if we get a soft CPI report? Or some other negative economic news? <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Do we really want to go into the FOMC priced at a one-in-four chance of a 50 bps cut? That&#8217;s just going to create the kind of volatility that the Fed usually aims to avoid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The one thing that doesn&#8217;t make sense to me about the Fed is the calendar. To my way&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10450,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-10449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}