{"id":107983,"date":"2025-10-30T01:13:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T01:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/107983\/"},"modified":"2025-10-30T01:13:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T01:13:08","slug":"below-the-surface-of-chinas-slowing-retail-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/107983\/","title":{"rendered":"Below the surface of China\u2019s slowing retail growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Mark Tanner*<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/english.news.cn\/20251020\/d15b6909739d4dbd91c41d38f6446b3c\/c.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">retail goods sales grew 4.5% in the first nine months of the year<\/a>. While solid by most countries\u2019 standards, it trails the 5.1% rise in incomes. Consumers are saving a slightly larger share of their pay packets, despite <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/chinas-consumer-subsidy-scheme-needs-rethink-2025-10-21\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u00a5300 billion ($42 billion) in consumption subsidies this year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This hasn\u2019t been helped by real estate, which had long been the <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/china-high-house-prices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">psychological backbone of households feeling wealthier<\/a>, but still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/10\/chinas-property-slump-this-year-looks-worse-than-expected-sp-says.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">haven\u2019t managed to shake falling prices<\/a>. But not all sectors are slowing: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202510\/t20251020_1961608.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">online retail rose 9.8%<\/a>, up on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202410\/t20241025_1957147.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">7.9% growth for the same period last year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Reading deeper into the \u201cslower\u201d growth story<\/p>\n<p>A headline slowdown glosses over the brands that have evolved with shifting habits, and are flying as a result. Those giving consumers both the products and marketing that hit the <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/5-senses-marketing-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">right emotional notes<\/a> are seeing growth far beyond the average.<\/p>\n<p>Food finds its appetite<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not just the <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/pop-mart-labubu-branding-lessons-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Labubus<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/popmart-jewelry-china-popop\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Laopus<\/a> lighting up Chinese social feeds. Sales of <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/PDChina\/status\/1976088974881063064\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">\u2018green organic food\u2019 surged 27.9%<\/a> during Golden Week, while overall <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202510\/t20251020_1961608.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">spending on food climbed 10.4%<\/a> in the first three quarters.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s appetite is still there, it\u2019s just getting more selective and, in many cases, more premium.<\/p>\n<p>From owning to experiencing<\/p>\n<p>The service sector grew 5.2% in the first 9-months of the year, 16% faster than goods, as Chinese consumers continue to trade \u201cstuff\u201d for experiences. Across the spectrum, from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/business\/china-business\/article\/3329995\/hilton-launch-new-brands-china-it-seeks-expand-presence-more-300-cities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Hilton Group opening high-end hotels in another 30 cities<\/a>, to <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/mixue-vertical-integration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Mixue<\/a> scooping up <a href=\"https:\/\/www.itiger.com\/news\/1174835481\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">more cheap ice cream, milk tea<\/a>\u00a0and <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/mixue-selling-beer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">now beer<\/a>, experiences are becoming an increasing driver of consumption growth.<\/p>\n<p>Products that tap into this growing quest for experiences are riding high in China, like the <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/foreign-outdoor-brands-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">five foreign outdoor brands that climbed past $500 million in annual sales<\/a> within a few years. Sports and recreation retail itself has grown 19.6% this year.<\/p>\n<p>Luxury showing green shoots \u2026 for brands that cater to new needs<\/p>\n<p>Desire for experiences is reflective of a McKinsey survey showing that more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.travelandtourworld.com\/news\/article\/shangri-la-signatures-a-new-era-of-luxury-in-china-with-silk-lakehouse-in-hangzhou\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">70% of affluent Chinese travellers prioritised cultural and personal enrichment over displays of luxury<\/a>. Despite this, even brands that sell branded goods are rewarded if they provide rich experiences in their customer journey.<\/p>\n<p>An example of this is Louis Vuitton\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/starbucks-lv-cruiseship-shanghai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">The Louis\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/starbucks-lv-cruiseship-shanghai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Cruise Ship<\/a>\u00a0in downtown Shanghai. At a time when many luxury brands are pulling back, the brand\u2019s ginormous investment drew an explosion of social media posts, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/22\/losing-the-chinese-shopper-could-soon-have-global-consequences.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">100,000 daily passers-by and around 2,500 making an appointment and queuing up to visit it each day<\/a>. The experience contributed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.business.hsbc.com\/en-gb\/insights\/market-and-regulatory-insights\/understanding-the-new-chinese-consumer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">LVMH swinging back to modest growth last quarter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Coach, meanwhile, didn\u2019t spend large on a ship, but leaned into <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/services\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">big-data insights and in-home ethnographic research to deeply understand its customers and service their needs<\/a>. This saw their parent company\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/coach-winning-over-chinese-consumers-094431075.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">revenue in China grow 5% over the past year<\/a>, as many of their peers struggled.<\/p>\n<p>Me, Myself, and My Laopu<\/p>\n<p>Growing sales in China isn\u2019t just about knowing what people buy, but why. Gifting was once the lifeblood of luxury but has been curbed by the <a href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/216244\/what-chinas-anti-corruption-push-has-done-to-swiss-watch-exports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">anti-corruption drive<\/a> and a new wave of self-indulgent consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Laopu Gold has read the room perfectly: <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4830757-2025-chinese-jewellery-retailer-insights-gold-self-wear-remain-key\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">37% of jewellery purchases this year were \u201cself-indulgent,\u201d<\/a> up from 27% last year as more consumers focus on spoiling themselves.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s next: a nudge from Beijing<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s retail categories will continue to face challenges. However the 15th Five Year Plan released next March will almost certainly outline further plans to build a <a href=\"https:\/\/english.www.gov.cn\/news\/202510\/24\/content_WS68fad2e0c6d00ca5f9a06fe2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u201crobust domestic market\u201d<\/a> to goose consumption. Brands with the deepest understanding of Chinese consumer needs and behaviours, and act upon them, are most likely to tap into the opportunity from this.<\/p>\n<p>*<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinaskinny.com\/about-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Mark Tanner<\/a> is the CEO of China Skinny, a marketing consultancy in Shanghai. This article was first published <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/deeper-insights-china-retail-slowdown\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/chinaskinny.com\/blog\/cbi500-alibaba-peking-inform-china-marketing\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">,<\/a> and is re-posted with permission.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Mark Tanner* China\u2019s retail goods sales grew 4.5% in the first nine months of the year. While&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107984,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-107983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}