{"id":111046,"date":"2025-10-31T18:01:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T18:01:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/111046\/"},"modified":"2025-10-31T18:01:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T18:01:07","slug":"cotality-data-shows-house-prices-up-0-2-in-october-green-shoots-visible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/111046\/","title":{"rendered":"Cotality data shows house prices up 0.2% in October, green shoots visible"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cThat being said, sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum, and of course, the economy and labour market are still subdued.\u201d<\/p>\n

Davidson said the Reserve Bank\u2019s relaxation of the loan-to-value ratio lending restrictions, coming into effect on December 1, was a \u201cnotable shift\u201d that could \u201cpossibly benefit investors a bit more than owner-occupiers\u201d. <\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough the potential scope for more pre-approvals for low equity loans could bolster first home buyers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen in the past that banks tend to act early on these rule changes, so the effects may start to show through even as soon as the release of October\u2019s mortgage lending stats in late November.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"CotalityCotality NZ chief economist Kelvin Davidson says there may be some green shoots in the property market: \u201cThat being said, sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum, and of course, the economy and labour market are still subdued.\u201d Photo \/ Peter Meecham<\/p>\n

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley also said October\u2019s figures could be a good sign for the market ahead.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market is still pretty flat, but when you\u2019re starting to see those tiny inches up in prices, it doesn\u2019t add up to a lot, but it is a sign that things might be heading in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

To pick up the market, Tuffley told the Herald, it would be \u201cquite important\u201d for sales turnover to increase to reduce the overall number of listings.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s when you\u2019re likely to see a bit more upward price pressure come through, because that\u2019s one of the challenges for the market, there\u2019s an awful lot of new listings pouring into the market all the time.\u201d <\/p>\n

The numbers around the country<\/p>\n

Dunedin was the main centre to see the highest growth in prices over the month, with a 0.7% uplift. Christchurch had the second-highest growth rate, 0.4%. Wellington and Tauranga saw 0.2% growth, Hamilton saw none, and Auckland\u2019s average prices dropped by 0.2%.<\/p>\n

It takes the median house price in Auckland to $1,051,796.<\/p>\n

And growth around Auckland itself has been patchy. Prices in Franklin grew by 0.3%, and on the North Shore by 0.1%.<\/p>\n

\"NickNick Tuffley, ASB chief economist: \u201cThe market is still pretty flat, but when you\u2019re starting to see those tiny inches up in prices … it is a sign that things might be heading in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other submarkets across the city fell. Auckland City prices fell by 0.3%, while Rodney, Manukau and Papakura\u2019s average prices dropped by 0.1%. Waitakere prices sank 0.7%.<\/p>\n

Davidson said a \u201ccautious mood is clearly pervading the property market\u201d in Auckland.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe stock of available listings across the Super City has eased downwards this year, potentially lessening buyers\u2019 pricing power to a degree. But the new-build pipeline remains active.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u20182026 likely to see a rise in sales and prices\u2019, says economist<\/p>\n

Davidson expected a lot of focus on what the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) decides at the next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on November 26. <\/p>\n

He believes the RBNZ will likely cut the OCR by 25 basis points.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis, however, could mark the end of the cuts in this cycle.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf so, it\u2019ll then be a case of judging how these effects are eventually filtering through to the economy, consumer spending, and the housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given that mortgage rates have already fallen \u201ca long way\u201d, housing affordability is \u201cmore favourable\u201d and the economy is \u201cset to improve\u201d, increases in property sales activity and house prices appear likely in 2026, Davidson said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, would-be buyers may not necessarily need to be too concerned about falling behind. After all, with the stock of housing having risen in recent years relative to population, and debt-to-income ratio caps also now in action, only a modest rise in prices of perhaps 5% or less seems more likely than a fresh boom.<\/p>\n

\u201cProspective buyers, whether that\u2019s owner-occupiers or investors, will also no doubt be pleased that values remain around 17% below their early 2022 peak \u2013 with some likely to be viewing this as a strong opportunity to snap up \u2018bargains\u2019 at what might prove to be the low point for the market.”<\/p>\n

Tuffley said his team at ASB were also forecasting a 25 basis point cut to the OCR this month. He believed another cut was likely if the economy \u201cdoesn\u2019t show much in the way of picking up\u201d over summer. <\/p>\n

Raphael Franks<\/a> is an Auckland-based reporter who covers business, breaking news and local stories from T\u0101maki Makaurau. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.<\/p>\n

Sign up to The Daily H<\/a>, a free newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cThat being said, sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum, and of course, the economy…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111047,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[25620,74,138,37006,124,3105,13488,15248,1342,2518,3499,10053,78,225,4486,3234,3556,111,139,69,1570,12937,1881,12000,2687,8466,26777,418,35970,810,25019,102],"class_list":["post-111046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-25620","tag-after","tag-business","tag-cotality","tag-could","tag-data","tag-economists","tag-falls","tag-five","tag-green","tag-growth","tag-house","tag-in","tag-market","tag-month","tag-months","tag-national","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-october","tag-prices","tag-recovery","tag-rose","tag-saying","tag-second","tag-shoots","tag-shows","tag-signal","tag-up","tag-visible","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}