{"id":116689,"date":"2025-11-04T02:47:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T02:47:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/116689\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T02:47:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T02:47:07","slug":"weak-rental-market-to-persist-with-low-migration-and-slowing-wage-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/116689\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak rental market to persist with low migration and slowing wage growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Tauranga rents fell 0.2% to $683\/week and Christchurch was down 1.5% to $532\/week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Dunedin is the only place in New Zealand where rents rose: up 3.4% to a median $505\/week.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Data from Cotality shows how rents everywhere except Dunedin are in negative growth territory.\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Data from Cotality shows how rents everywhere except Dunedin are in negative growth territory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cConditions remain subdued, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/immigration\/190\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/immigration\/190\/\">net migration<\/a> having fallen a long way from its peak and the stock of available rental listings on the market still elevated,\u201d Cotality\u2019s commentary said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThere\u2019s also another constraint on rental growth, given that their level is already high in relation to households\u2019 incomes: wage growth is slowing too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">That weakness was clearly illustrated in the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) bonds data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The median national rent in the three months to August fell 1.1% annually.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">That was one of the first declines since late 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Nationally, how much are rents down?<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Cotality also presented a national chart on falling rental prices.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Fluctuating picture of national residential rents with some big falls lately. This shows how rents of New Zealand residential properties fell -1.1% in the year to August 2025. Image \/ Cotality\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Fluctuating picture of national residential rents with some big falls lately. This shows how rents of New Zealand residential properties fell -1.1% in the year to August 2025. Image \/ Cotality<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The graphic above compares the Consumers Price Index with rental prices and again shows a big drop lately.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the rental scene was unusual lately.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThis is an incredibly weak period for rents. This doesn\u2019t happen that often. To have rents this weak, you\u2019d have to go back to the GFC, around 2009,\u201d Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Rents have previously risen considerably, but they have now tailed off, he said. The near-term chances for a continuation of the low rents would depend on when migration changed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Although net migration was still positive, it was not rising as much as it had been.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Kelvin Davidson of Cotality said now is a particularly unusual time for rents. Photo \/  Peter Meecham\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Kelvin Davidson of Cotality said now is a particularly unusual time for rents. Photo \/  Peter Meecham<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The near-term was not defined, he said, \u201cbut rents are not going to change a lot soon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cNet migration could turn on a dime but the economy is taking time to turn around. It will take a while for our labour market to look attractive to new migrants,\u201d Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p>How bad are migration numbers?<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Last month, Liam Dann <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/migration-kiwis-still-leaving-new-zealand-in-record-numbers\/WPEHJT7NBZHSFFBHZEIOU5GTF4\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/migration-kiwis-still-leaving-new-zealand-in-record-numbers\/WPEHJT7NBZHSFFBHZEIOU5GTF4\/\">reported<\/a> how New Zealand\u2019s annual net migration rate had fallen again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">At just 10,600 for the year to August 2025, the net number of additional migrants in the country appears to be a reversal from a return to growth in the year to July.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The August 2025 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens, Stats NZ said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">There were 73,900 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record of 73,300 in the July 2025 year.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Annual net migration is falling. Photo \/ Brett Phibbs\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Annual net migration is falling. Photo \/ Brett Phibbs<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Davidson said new data for September will be released by the MBIE within the next week or two but he doesn\u2019t expect any big changes. <\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cRents could be sliding lower, which will be a continuation of what we\u2019ve seen lately.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">It was too black-and-white a view to say it was a good time to be a tenant and a bad one to be a landlord, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cRemember, it\u2019s still expensive to rent, it\u2019s just that prices are not going up as quickly. It\u2019s a better time to be a tenant, but rents are not massively falling, except in Wellington. Tenants will either secure a better property at the same rent or get a reduced rent for the same property in Wellington.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Davidson said it was important to know that the data presented were only for new rental properties. They didn\u2019t capture renewals of leases in existing rentals.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Rents are down everywhere except in Dunedin in the latest year. Photo \/ 123rf\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Rents are down everywhere except in Dunedin in the latest year. Photo \/ 123rf<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Cotality says New Zealand has 1.7 million dwellings. Home ownership is at 66%, meaning 34% of properties are rented, which Davidson said equates to about 570,000 dwellings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Those residences are occupied by well over one million tenants, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p>Tenant lobby group boss remains unhappy<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Renters United president Luke Somervell said people continued to leave New Zealand.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Renters United president Luke Somervell. Photo \/ Luke Somervell\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Renters United president Luke Somervell. Photo \/ Luke Somervell<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cBut it\u2019s good to hear that rents are falling. Always happy to see that, but it\u2019s not a renters\u2019 bonanza. Rents may be slightly cheaper but tenants are still living in the same decaying housing stock,\u201d Somervell said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cMore people are leaving the country, so there are more rooms up for rent but this is only temporary, and we\u2019re not seeing a major structural change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"The opening ceremony of the Resido rental apartment complex in Mt Wellington.&#10;From left, Hauauru Rawiri of Ngati Paoa, Housing Minister Chris Bishop, PM Christopher Luxon, Clive Mackenzie from Kiwi Property and Simon Shakesheff from Kiwi Property. Photo \/ Jason Oxenham\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>The opening ceremony of the Resido rental apartment complex in Mt Wellington.<br \/>\nFrom left, Hauauru Rawiri of Ngati Paoa, Housing Minister Chris Bishop, PM Christopher Luxon, Clive Mackenzie from Kiwi Property and Simon Shakesheff from Kiwi Property. Photo \/ Jason Oxenham<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Somervell decried the coalition Government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/government-to-make-it-easier-to-evict-tenants-hopes-to-encourage-more-investment-in-rentals-officials-unsure-whether-tenants-will-benefit\/3QO2JTAUBBCSNO5R3CU7SMUJGQ\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/government-to-make-it-easier-to-evict-tenants-hopes-to-encourage-more-investment-in-rentals-officials-unsure-whether-tenants-will-benefit\/3QO2JTAUBBCSNO5R3CU7SMUJGQ\/\">reversal of no-cause evictions<\/a>, which means landlords can \u201cevict at will\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The market for tenants remained unfair, whereas other sectors like food and employment showed more respect to consumers and employees.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIt\u2019s an embarrassment for us as a country,\u201d Somervell said of the rental market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWe\u2019re told renting sucks, but save up and you\u2019ll be able to afford a home,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>How many properties for rent?<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">One online website today showed New Zealand had 13,200 rental listings nationally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Of those, 6299 were for Auckland rental properties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The most expensive at $8000\/week is for the waterfront property 28 Blomfield Spa in Takapuna: a five-bedroom home with three toilets and garaging for five cars. <\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Ockham Residential and five-iwi collective Marut\u016b\u0101hu collective have developed the red Whet\u016b apartment block and the green Toi at Pt Chevalier in Auckland. This is on former Unitec land. Photo \/ Ockham\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Ockham Residential and five-iwi collective Marut\u016b\u0101hu collective have developed the red Whet\u016b apartment block and the green Toi at Pt Chevalier in Auckland. This is on former Unitec land. Photo \/ Ockham<\/p>\n<p>Now, rental supply is fast expanding<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Apartment specialist Ockham Residential has sold some new apartments at Pt Chevalier\u2019s Toi building.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">But it decided to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/ockhams-21st-project-opens-toi-high-rise-in-pt-chevalier-built-with-maori-iwi-group-marutuahu\/2QZ5DJG5Q5FW3IWD7ABVUWLMBM\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/ockhams-21st-project-opens-toi-high-rise-in-pt-chevalier-built-with-maori-iwi-group-marutuahu\/2QZ5DJG5Q5FW3IWD7ABVUWLMBM\/\">rent<\/a> all units in the neighbouring, larger Whet\u016b block.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">The photo above shows the orange or red-colour Toi and the neighbouring green Whet\u016b.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">In September, Housing Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/why-auckland-needs-to-grow-chris-bishop\/35TCV4KQYBAULCYVKGZTOWQI7U\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/why-auckland-needs-to-grow-chris-bishop\/35TCV4KQYBAULCYVKGZTOWQI7U\/\" target=\"_blank\">Chris Bishop<\/a> cut the ribbon beside Auckland Mayor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/wayne-brown\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/wayne-brown\/\" target=\"_blank\">Wayne Brown<\/a> at the 65-unit Toi block on ex-Unitec land opposite the historic Carrington Hospital and near the Mason Clinic.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Te Reiputa, a five-block build-to-rent project on Auckland's Mt Wellington Highway by Simplicity Living. This shows the project on September 25, 2025. Completion is due next year. Photo \/ Simplicity Living\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Te Reiputa, a five-block build-to-rent project on Auckland&#8217;s Mt Wellington Highway by Simplicity Living. This shows the project on September 25, 2025. Completion is due next year. Photo \/ Simplicity Living<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Falling rents come at the same time that Simplicity Living has become New Zealand\u2019s largest rental property developer, working solely in Auckland but soon to expand to Queenstown.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\">Simplicity Living\u2019s new build-to-rent projects<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/simplicity-living-announces-500m-600-unit-frankton-build-to-rent-scheme\/6RTZ2JVAKVDNLLV5NQEAKDOLXA\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/simplicity-living-announces-500m-600-unit-frankton-build-to-rent-scheme\/6RTZ2JVAKVDNLLV5NQEAKDOLXA\/\">Remarkables Park<\/a>, Queenstown: 600-unit, $500m investment planned. 12 Lower Shotover Rd, resource consent yet to be granted.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/simplicity-living-announces-500m-600-unit-frankton-build-to-rent-scheme\/6RTZ2JVAKVDNLLV5NQEAKDOLXA\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/property\/simplicity-living-announces-500m-600-unit-frankton-build-to-rent-scheme\/6RTZ2JVAKVDNLLV5NQEAKDOLXA\/\">Te Reiputa<\/a>: 297 units, 222 car parks, $225m, 80 Mt Wellington Highway, nearing completion;Waiatarua: 330 units, 172 car parks, $284m, 130 Ascot Ave, ex-Ellerslie Racecourse carpark, under construction;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=simplicity+living+northcote+nz+herald&amp;cvid=615ac4109c2e4c439ea31063f17c0c08&amp;gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOdIBCDQxMTlqMGo5qAIIsAIB&amp;FORM=ANAB01&amp;PC=U531\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=simplicity+living+northcote+nz+herald&amp;cvid=615ac4109c2e4c439ea31063f17c0c08&amp;gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOdIBCDQxMTlqMGo5qAIIsAIB&amp;FORM=ANAB01&amp;PC=U531\">Northcote:<\/a> 93 units planned, 137 Lake Rd, due to start this month;Morningside: 264 units, 10 Morningside Dr, construction started in July, due for completion 2027.May buy more land at Unitec in Waterview, Middlemore and Maungawhau on land used for the City Rail Link but no announcements yet made.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ZzQnbEvs\" style=\"display:none\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/author\/anne-gibson\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/author\/anne-gibson\/\" target=\"_blank\">Anne Gibson<\/a> has been the Herald\u2018s property editor for 25 years, written books and covered property extensively here and overseas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tauranga rents fell 0.2% to $683\/week and Christchurch was down 1.5% to $532\/week. Dunedin is the only place&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116690,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[59777,95,7564,51,138,6097,219,38403,5616,3499,17576,225,8751,111,139,69,73394,22429,62592,16402,44439,2249,29307,2044,61,60700,27037,102],"class_list":["post-116689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-59777","tag-and","tag-annually","tag-auckland","tag-business","tag-down","tag-economy","tag-falling","tag-forecast","tag-growth","tag-low","tag-market","tag-migration","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-persist","tag-rental","tag-rents","tag-reverse","tag-slowing","tag-soon","tag-subdued","tag-time","tag-to","tag-wage","tag-weak","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}