Although the study centres on Spain, the country\u2019s striking climate diversity positions it as a bellwether for internal climate migration. Its eastern, southern, and inland regions experience hot, predominantly dry conditions, while the northern coast enjoys a markedly cooler Atlantic climate. Unlike international migration, people relocating within Spain face few legal or bureaucratic barriers \u2013 provided, of course, they can afford to do so.<\/p>\n
Cool climate, hot property<\/p>\n
Using data from Spain\u2019s largest online property portal, Idealista, we analysed sale and rental prices in mainland Spain\u2019s 47 provincial capitals between 2009 and 2024. We found that extreme heat is affecting property values. Specifically, each additional day over 35\u00b0C translates into a drop of \u20ac1.40 per square metre in sale prices, and \u20ac0.0059 in monthly rental prices within the same province. <\/p>\n
To put this in less abstract terms, the average-sized Spanish home is somewhere around 120 square metres. With around 700,000 homes for sale<\/a> or rent<\/a> within the country in 2024, this equates to an annual loss of approximately \u20ac117.6 million per year in sales, and \u20ac500,000 in rental prices.<\/p>\n Read more: Who benefits from the heat?<\/p>\n According to our study, the country\u2019s cooler regions stand to benefit from their neighbours\u2019 high temperatures. Sale prices have risen in these areas by \u20ac2.80 per square metre, and rentals by \u20ac0.012, creating annual gains of around \u20ac235 million in sales and \u20ac1 million in rents. <\/p>\n In short, extreme heat is reducing value in some areas, and raising it in others. Spain\u2019s cooler regions stand to benefit economically from heatwaves elsewhere as their sale and rental prices increase.<\/p>\n This displacement of value, which we can tie to patterns of internal climate migration, has profound implications for the future of city planning, property investment and regional planning. Is this a new form of climate gentrification? Will Spain\u2019s coolest regions become its hottest property? Our study suggests that this is the case, and that the process is already well underway.<\/p>\n Read more: Homes, climate change and local economies<\/p>\n Property markets are sensitive to climate risk. In countries like the US<\/a> and China<\/a>, there have been well-documented falls in property prices in areas exposed to hurricanes, wildfires and floods. In Spain<\/a>, extreme heat is exerting a silent yet persistent influence \u2013 while it is not destroying homes directly, it is eroding their appeal and value in the mid-term. <\/p>\n This finding puts paid to the idea that financial and property markets are somehow immune to climate change. On the contrary, these are the areas where climate change will filter through to the everyday economy, and start having very real impacts on ordinary people\u2019s finances. And when a region\u2019s house prices fall due to extreme heat, it is not just homeowners who lose out \u2013 it also impacts the region\u2019s tax income, infrastructure investment and social cohesion.<\/p>\n The displacement of demand toward cooler provinces is a reflection of climate migration. While we generally associate this concept with international movement, it can also happen within a country. In Spain, extreme heat may well push people out of southern and inland areas toward the north or higher altitudes, where quality of life is seen as more sustainable.<\/p>\n Read more: Our study underscores the fact that these movements are not just demographic but also economic. The flows of property capital follow the movements of people. <\/p>\n This means areas where the climate is seen as more hospitable can anticipate greater investment, but this could place pressure on prices. The risk is that, as these areas become more desirable, local populations will be shut out of the property market. This would, in turn, increase inequality in these areas.<\/p>\n Spain\u2019s property future<\/p>\n The property market\u2019s future will be resilient and sustainable, or it will not exist at all. The impact of extreme heat is already leaving its mark on property values, and this will only intensify over the coming years.<\/p>\n The real question is no longer whether climate change will affect the market, but how we can respond to this challenge. We are faced with a choice: proactive policy changes, or inaction that will deepen inequalities and cause massive economic losses.<\/p>\n Our study is a warning: climate change will transform Spain\u2019s property market, affecting prices, investment and access to housing. Building climate risk into housing policy and financial strategy will be key to guaranteeing an equitable, sustainable and resilient society in the face of increasing heat and territorial inequality.<\/p>\n Just like its towns and cities, Spain\u2019s property market is on the front line of the climate crisis. What we do today will determine the social, economic and human value of housing in the future.<\/p>\n A weekly e-mail in English featuring expertise from scholars and researchers. It provides an introduction to the diversity of research coming out of the continent and considers some of the key issues facing European countries. Get the newsletter!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In August 2025, Spain suffered its worst heatwave since records began. It reinforced the fact that climate change…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117637,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[273,111,139,69,147],"class_list":{"0":"post-117636","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-new-zealand","10":"tag-newzealand","11":"tag-nz","12":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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