So much for ignoring the labor market revisions!<\/p>\n
The major indexes fell sharply from the cusp of fresh records around 10:30 a.m. ET. The Dow was down 60 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2%. The Russell 2000 was down 0.6%.<\/p>\n
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer nonfarm jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ended March 2025.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe jobs picture keeps deteriorating and while that should make it easier for the Fed to cut rates this fall, it could also throw some cold water on the recent rally,\u201d writes Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. \u201cWorse still, if the CPI shows a worsening trend of higher inflation on Thursday then the market will begin worrying about stagflation.\u201d<\/p>\n
The BLS will release the producer price index for August on Wednesday, followed by the consumer price index on Thursday.<\/p>\n
“The bull market has been extremely resilient this year, but we could be approaching an inflection point where it is tested again,” Zaccarelli writes.<\/p>\n
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was up to 3.54%, while the 10-year yield was also up to 4.08%.<\/p>\n
Rosenberg Research’s David Rosenberg says that the revisions mean that market participants have been trading off of monthly jobs reports that have been overstated by more than two million over the past three years.<\/p>\n
“But magnitude aside, three years in a row of negative benchmark revisions tells you that the labor market and hence the economy have been far less vibrant than commonly perceived,” Rosenberg says. “And this is where a ‘data dependent’ Fed gets it wrong because it is formulating policy not just based on incomplete information but on coincident to lagging indicators.”<\/p>\n
Rosenberg argues the case for the Fed to lower the federal funds rate to 3%, or even lower, is growing by the day.<\/p>\n
“This ‘data dependent’ Fed has been pursuing a policy that has been far too tight for far too long, and that was as true under the Biden administration in 2022 and 2023 as it now under Donald Trump\u2019s tenure,” Rosenberg says. “And when you look at the fact that the sectors most closely tied to the consumer \u2013 retail with a -126k downward revision and leisure-hospitality with a -176k negative adjustment \u2013 it is clear that this critical segment of the economy had lacked the vitality that so many pundits had been waxing about for so long.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"So much for ignoring the labor market revisions! The major indexes fell sharply from the cusp of fresh…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4974,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[138,220,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-11950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}