{"id":11951,"date":"2025-09-09T15:19:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T15:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/11951\/"},"modified":"2025-09-09T15:19:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T15:19:06","slug":"is-a-big-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-on-the-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/11951\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a big Bank of Canada rate cut on the way?"},"content":{"rendered":"

BMO\u2019s Sal Guatieri wrote, \u201cStubborn core inflation sets a high bar for another Bank of Canada rate cut, reducing the odds of a move on September 17.\u201d He added that if future job and inflation reports remain subdued, the Bank could ease in October, eventually taking the policy rate down 75 basis points to 2.0%<\/a> before next spring.<\/p>\n

TD economist Rishi Sondhi argued that \u201cdomestic demand looks to have surprised on the upside. On the margin this could enhance the argument for the Bank to stand pat on rates at their September 17 meeting.\u201d However, CIBC\u2019s Andrew Grantham said, \u201cWe continue to think that a couple more interest rate cuts<\/a> from the Bank of Canada are needed to accelerate the recovery, and assuming no fireworks in next week\u2019s LFS figures, we forecast the first of those being delivered at the upcoming September meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Canadian banks stay calm amid mortgage jitters. Morningstar DBRS\u2019s Carl De Souza cites strong borrower credit scores and sub-55% LTVs as proof the Big Six can weather higher renewal rates and economic uncertainty.https:\/\/t.co\/32G70CzKEI<\/a><\/p>\n


\n\u2014 Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Labour market weakens as trade war bites<\/p>\n

The trade war\u2019s impact has been especially pronounced in manufacturing, which shed 58,100 jobs over the past seven months<\/a>. Professional, scientific, and technical services lost 26,000 positions in August alone. Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta saw the largest regional job losses, while Quebec remained stable.<\/p>\n

\u201cSouthern Ontario cities continue to shoulder the nation\u2019s highest unemployment rates, with Windsor (11.1%), Oshawa (9.0%), and Toronto (8.9%) bearing the brunt of trade war impact,\u201d Fan\u00a0said.<\/p>\n

Inflation concerns linger, but market expects easing<\/p>\n

While Canada\u2019s overall inflation rate remains below the BoC\u2019s 2% goal, the underlying rate is tracking \u201cmoderately above the target,\u201d Guatieri said. Desjardins Group economist Royce Mendes argued that inflation worries have been overstated by temporary factors, suggesting \u201cit\u2019s really time to move the inflation worries to the back burner and start focusing\u2026on supporting the economy, with the unemployment rate near 7%.\u201d Mendes flagged that markets may be underestimating the scope of future BoC cuts<\/a>.<\/p>\n