{"id":121537,"date":"2025-11-06T18:50:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T18:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/121537\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T18:50:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T18:50:08","slug":"who-are-the-major-players-at-cop30-and-what-do-they-want-cop30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/121537\/","title":{"rendered":"Who are the major players at Cop30 and what do they want? | Cop30"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UN\u2019s Cop30 climate conference is under way, with negotiators, diplomats and leaders from around the world in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil<\/a>, to discuss how to handle the climate crisis.<\/p>\n

Who are the big players, and what do they want?<\/p>\n

Brazil<\/p>\n

Deciding to host a conference for 50,000 people in a small city in the Amazon rainforest was always going to be a controversial decision<\/a> but Brazil is determined to carry it off. The powerhouse of Latin America, with 213 million people, Brazil is the world\u2019s 10th biggest economy and has risen to become the eighth biggest exporter of oil and gas. But its defining feature is the Amazon rainforest, imperilled by the climate crisis and suffering record droughts, wildfires and the continuing depredations of ranchers and soy planters, but still the lungs of the world and a hotspot for biodiversity.<\/p>\n

Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, who leads a governing coalition drawn from opposing ends of the political spectrum after his narrow presidential victory over the rightwing populist Jair Bolsonaro, wants the world to be in no doubt: Cop30 will be the Cop of the Amazon<\/a>. To that end, his flagship project is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility<\/a>, a projected $125bn (\u00a395bn) fund that would enable governments and local communities to keep their forests standing instead of exploiting them for short-term gains.<\/p>\n

The start of the TFFF has been rocky \u2013 the UK has decided not to contribute<\/a>, for now at least, and other countries have given less than was hoped. But if the project can get off the ground it could be a vital lifeline for forested communities around the world.<\/p>\n

What Brazil has seemed less keen on is the core issue of Cop30: the sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to limit global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. Under the 2015 Paris agreement<\/a>, governments must produce plans on cutting emissions every five years. These nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were due in February, a deadline only a handful of countries met. By the eve of Cop30, only about 60 countries had submitted theirs \u2013 and they were grossly inadequate<\/a>. The UN estimated they would lead to a reduction in emissions of about 10% by 2035, compared with the 60% cut needed to stay within a 1.5C rise. Temperatures will rise by 2.5C even if the projected cuts are met.<\/p>\n

Technically, NDCs are not on the mandated agenda for Cop30<\/a>. But Brazil cannot avoid discussing them and without a clear answer on how these inadequate plans will somehow be rescued and the world put on a path to 1.5C, it is hard to see how Cop30 could be a success.<\/p>\n

An Indigenous activist stages a protest outside the summit building in B\u00e9lem, Brazil. Photograph: Eraldo Peres\/APThe US<\/p>\n

Donald Trump told the UN general assembly in September<\/a> that the climate crisis was \u201cthe greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world\u201d, a \u201cgreen scam\u201d based on \u201cpredictions \u2026 made by stupid people\u201d. He will not be attending Cop30.<\/p>\n

What is more concerning for participants is that the US president may try to wreak havoc from afar. At recent meetings of the International Maritime Organization, dealing with a potential carbon levy on shipping and a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the sector, the US used tactics of \u201cbullying and intimidation\u201d<\/a>, according to many countries present. Delegates received threatening phone calls and emails and were told if they voted for the proposals retaliation would extend not just to trade measures such as tariffs but would also target individuals, for instance through visa revocations.<\/p>\n

Participants told the Guardian the situation was unprecedented and shocking. It was also effective \u2013 the carbon levy, which had been agreed at a meeting in April, was in October unexpectedly put off for a year<\/a> as some delegates switched position. The delay gives the US the opportunity to work further on small countries involved.<\/p>\n

At Cop meetings in Trump\u2019s first presidency, the US barely figured. It sent small teams who attended few meetings and were usually noncommittal and sometimes obstructive. This time, Trump has been much more active across a range of fronts and, if Cop is in his sights, it could be a bumpy ride.<\/p>\n

Solar panels in western China\u2019s Qinghai province. More than a third of the country\u2019s energy consumption is met by renewables. Photograph: Ng Han Guan\/APChina<\/p>\n

Though Xi Jinping will not travel to the Amazon, the Chinese leader\u2019s presence will be felt. He showed unexpected fervour when he joined a key preparatory meeting<\/a> for Cop by video call earlier this year and again at the UN general assembly in September. This presages well for Chinese diplomatic engagement at Cop30, in contrast to last year where the world\u2019s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases kept a low profile. (Last year\u2019s Cop focused on climate finance, which in China\u2019s view is for developed countries to grant to the developing world, without participation from large and middle income developing economies.)<\/p>\n

Xi enjoys warm relations with Brazil\u2019s Lula and they spoke extensively by phone in August. China missed the early deadlines for presenting its NDC but fulfilled Xi\u2019s promise to deliver it before the start of Cop30.<\/p>\n

The plan was a disappointment. China agreed to cut emissions only by between 7% and 10%<\/a> of their peak by 2035. That is a long way off the 30% that experts say is necessary.<\/p>\n

But China has a long history of underpromising and overdelivering. A glance at its real economy shows renewable energy is speeding ahead<\/a>, accounting for more than half of the country\u2019s generating capacity and more than a third of its energy consumption. Half of all cars sold are electric vehicles and China\u2019s exports of cheap solar and wind components have fuelled an uptake of renewables<\/a> around the world that has outstripped predictions.<\/p>\n

China could choose to send out more encouraging signals at Cop30 \u2013 for instance, a signal that it was prepared to forge ahead with cuts to methane<\/a>, despite the breakdown of its alliance with the US over the issue when Trump returned to the White House. That could make a huge difference.<\/p>\n

India<\/p>\n

The close of Cop29 early on a Sunday morning in Azerbaijan last November was distressing and drawn out<\/a> \u2013 a drama driven by India. Other countries thought they had made an agreement, an imperfect deal that developing countries were sore over, but which appeared the best on the table given Trump\u2019s election comeback.<\/p>\n

Seeking a long-term settlement on climate finance, all countries had agreed a target of $1.3tn to flow to the poor world each year by 2035,<\/a> to help countries cut emissions and cope with the impact of extreme weather. Developed countries agreed to provide only $300bn from their own coffers \u2013 far too little, climate campaigners said, though a tripling of the $100bn they currently provide.<\/p>\n

But when it came to approving the deal, at the end of negotiations that had run a day and a half over time, India stood out. The country had concerns, its team said, over how its contributions to development banks should be counted. Other countries believed they had answered India\u2019s questions but its negotiators did not agree. The gavel came down \u2013 the UN process requires consensus, but this is not the same as unanimity \u2013 and India cried foul. The deal was a \u201cbetrayal\u201d of the poor world, India\u2019s delegates said.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s grievances are certainly genuine, though some of what occurred in the closing minutes of Cop29 was probably theatre, participants have told the Guardian. India maintains that the developed world must pay for tackling the climate crisis and that poor countries should be allowed to continue to use fossil fuels for their economic development.<\/p>\n

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Yet the Indian economy is rapidly following that of China<\/a>. It is the world\u2019s third largest producer of renewable energy, which makes up nearly half of installed capacity.<\/p>\n

Coal is a mainstay \u2013 Narendra Modi, the prime minister, celebrated the production of the billionth tonne of coal earlier this year \u2013 but with renewables also essential to solving the country\u2019s debilitating air pollution problems<\/a>, clean seems to be the future.<\/p>\n

Modi made a state visit to Brazil in July, so a disruption similar to the final moments in Baku looks unlikely for the Cop hosts. India\u2019s negotiators, however, will continue to see themselves as champions of the oppressed and Modi may even bid for the hosting of Cop33.<\/p>\n

Workers break up coal for transportation near the eastern Indian city of Dhanbad. Coal is still a mainstay in the country despite a surge in renewable power. Photograph: Altaf Qadri\/APThe EU<\/p>\n

Officials had to stay up late on Tuesday night as their political masters squabbled \u2013 because even with Cop30 imminent, member states could not agree on the EU target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. For Brussels, long the global champion of climate action, without which there would be no Paris agreement, taking so long to agree its NDC was extraordinary.<\/p>\n

The row shows the extent to which the rightwing political backlash against climate action<\/a> is rattling the bloc. France and Germany, formerly champions of the net zero agenda, are both undergoing political upheaval. Several smaller eastern European states, including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are vocally hostile to green policy.<\/p>\n

In the end, the NDC was underwhelming: a range of 66.25% to 72.5% cuts by 2035, compared with 1990 levels, as part of a bloc-wide effort to reach 90% cuts by 2040. The plan was criticised by some green groups as too feeble.<\/p>\n

The European Commission has shown itself increasingly combative with Beijing on green issues: climate chief Wopke Hoekstra told the Guardian this summer that the EU would no longer go it alone on climate leadership<\/a> and that other countries \u2013 China was clearly in his sights \u2013 must step up.<\/p>\n

But the tone at Cop30 could be more conciliatory: if there is some way to present an alliance between the EU and China to save the planet, in the absence of the US, it would be a diplomatic triumph.<\/p>\n

The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis)<\/p>\n

Small island states play an outsize role at Cops, acting as the moral conscience of the world, reminding rich countries of their obligations and big emitters of their responsibilities. They were a major force behind the Paris agreement<\/a> and are bitterly disappointed to see that the fulfilment of the 2015 treaty seems far away, as temperatures creep up beyond the 1.5C threshold.<\/p>\n

They will aim to hold all countries \u2013 big and small, rich and poor \u2013 to their collective obligations and promises.<\/p>\n

They now have powerful legal backing: the small Pacific island of Vanuatu led a challenge<\/a> that resulted in judges at the international court of justice ruling that countries must protect the climate from harm and that greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of that harm.<\/p>\n

The full implications of this decision have yet to be felt, but Aosis will come to Cop determined to see it is enforced. Another key issue for the islands is the \u201ctransition away from fossil fuels\u201d, agreed at Cop28 in Dubai<\/a>, but the subject of fierce opposition and backsliding last year. Brazil has been wary of finding space on the agenda for this to be discussed but Aosis and its allies will want to see clear progress.<\/p>\n

NDCs are also in their sights and Aosis wants to ensure a clear path can be found to remedy their inadequacies.<\/p>\n

Least developed countries (LDCs)<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s least developed countries are the ones with most difficulty at this Cop \u2013 even just the logistics of funding a delegation to come to Bel\u00e9m and brave the extortionate cost of accommodation<\/a> have proved too much for some. Many LDC delegations have been small and poorly funded in the past but this year is proving more challenging than usual.<\/p>\n

For the LDCs, last year was a key Cop, as it was the first time the UN framework convention on climate change had properly discussed climate finance for the poor world. While the outcome was a disappointment to many, they still have high hopes that new forms of climate finance can be found<\/a> to help them lift their people out of poverty without suffering the blight of fossil fuels. Many members of the grouping are also suffering under high debt burdens, so ways to lift this are essential \u2013 for instance through mechanisms known as \u201cdebt for climate swaps\u201d as well as more traditional grants under climate finance.<\/p>\n

The Baku to Bel\u00e9m roadmap, a blueprint for climate finance published on the eve of Cop30<\/a>, will be key to LDC demands. They want to see climate finance turned from the vague promises of last year to the beginnings of a firm funding programme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The UN\u2019s Cop30 climate conference is under way, with negotiators, diplomats and leaders from around the world in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121538,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[273,111,139,69,147],"class_list":{"0":"post-121537","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-new-zealand","10":"tag-newzealand","11":"tag-nz","12":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121537\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}