{"id":128367,"date":"2025-11-10T19:53:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T19:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/128367\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T19:53:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T19:53:08","slug":"breakfast-briefing-us-starts-to-step-back-from-the-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/128367\/","title":{"rendered":"Breakfast briefing: US starts to step back from the brink"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US is moving to end its government shutdown.<\/p>\n

First, Wall Street has started its week positively with the S&P 500 rising, the Nasdaq rising even more, and the Dow Jones gaining over 240 points as optimism grew that the US Federal government shutdown could soon end. In a procedural vote yesterday, the Senate advanced the first stage of a deal to reopen the government, securing the minimum 60 votes required. Eight Democratic senators broke with party leadership, dropping their key demand for a guaranteed extension of healthcare subsidies. The proposal must still be debated and passed by the Senate and approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where its passage remains quite uncertain.<\/p>\n

There was a three year US Treasury bond auction<\/a> earlier today and that delivered a median yield of 3.54%, essentially unchanged from the 3.53% at the prior equivalent event<\/a> a month ago.<\/p>\n

In Canada, their market participants survey<\/a> showed that trade tensions with the US are the key issue driving financial market. Despite that, those surveyed reckoned 2025 will deliver a +1% economic expansion this year and more next year.<\/p>\n

In Indonesia, there was a good bounce back in consumer sentiment<\/a> in October after five months of angst. The affordability crisis that played out on some streets seems to have faded somewhat.<\/p>\n

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now +5 bps positive and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +17 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.80%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.38%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.14%, up +2 bps.<\/p>\n

Wall Street liked the Federal government re-opening so the S&P500 is up +1.3% in their Monday trade. European markets did too, and they rose more than +1% everywhere there, some to record highs. Tokyo ended yesterday up +1.3%. Hong Kong was up +1.6% and Shanghai was up +0.5%. However Singapore dipped a minor -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +0.8%, while the NZX50 only managed a +0.1% gain.<\/p>\n

The price of gold<\/a> will start today at US$4092\/oz, up +US$92 from this time yesterday and a +2.3% gain on bets the Fed will cut its rates after weak US data. Silver surged +3% to US$50\/oz, its highest level since October 20. Precious metals pricing indicates some market participants aren’t impressed by the US shutdown progress.<\/p>\n

American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just on US$59.50\/bbl, with the international Brent price unchanged at US$63.50\/bbl. Fundamentally low expected demand is keeping this price low. It is holding at 4 year lows and at levels first seen in 2017.<\/p>\n

The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.3 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps lower at 86.4 AUc and a new 12 year low. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9 and up +10 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n

The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,120 and up +1.4% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +\/- 1.5%.<\/p>\n

Select chart tabs<\/p>\n

US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n

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\n <\/a>\n<\/p>\n

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US is moving…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118030,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-128367","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128367"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128367\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}