Tensions the party had kept private for months burst into the open. Most parties in distress grumble quietly for a few months before spectacularly imploding in a matter of days.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s remarkable about Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s implosion is just how long and sustained it\u2019s been. Most parties can only burn at that white-hot intensity for a few days before flaming out. Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori has been blazing for months without showing any signs of stopping.<\/p>\n
As of this week, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and T\u0101kuta Ferris are sitting as independents. They could be joined soon by Orinii Kaipara, who seems to be mulling a move from the caucus she joined only a couple of months ago.<\/p>\n
The scrap has bled to the party infrastructure in local electorates, with the party declaring one, Te Tai Tokerau, dysfunctional (probably because it is loyal to its now-ousted MP).<\/p>\n
The matter is nearly but not quite existential. The party\u2019s dysfunction has become such an established fact that Labour stands a very good shot of retaking many of the seats next year.<\/p>\n
Labour won the party vote in all seven M\u0101ori seats in 2023 and held six of the seven as recently as 2023 and all seven as recently as 2020. Vote splitting has been a feature of the seats for some time. Clearly, a residual affection for Labour remains.<\/p>\n
There are further risks for Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori. Kapa-Kingi and Ferris and whoever Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori run against them risk splitting the vote in their electorates, allowing a Labour candidate to come through the middle. Both MPs have tiny majorities; Kapa-Kingi\u2019s is 517 and Ferris\u2019 is 2824.<\/p>\n
The Northland electorate of Te Tai Tokerau could be especially interesting, with Green MP H\u016bhana Lyndon, who placed a distant third in 2023, likely to do better in 2026. Locals say she\u2019s been very visible. Labour\u2019s Kelvin Davis, since retired from Parliament, will be replaced by Willow-Jean Prime, who is likely to do well.<\/p>\n
The wild card is whether Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori will be able to select Hone Harawira, as the very persistent Wellington rumour suggests. Harawira held the seat for Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori (then better known as the M\u0101ori Party) and Mana, after he split off, citing his colleagues\u2019 proximity to the Key Government.<\/p>\n
Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori MPs before the party’s split. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n
It would be quite the homecoming, completing a story that in many ways began when Harawira split off in 2011. He was right. The M\u0101ori Party\u2019s proximity to National ultimately destroyed it. What has been reborn as Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori is closer in many ways to Mana than the M\u0101ori Party Harawira left.<\/p>\n
The other big question that hangs over the party is what happens to Hana Rawhiti-Maipi Clark, its great hope for the future, and the holder of the one electorate Labour is most doubtful it can win back. She has a future in Parliament, for sure, but with whom? She\u2019s a talent, but she\u2019s still learning the ropes. Let\u2019s not forget the bizarre ram raid that wasn\u2019t a ram raid of the 2023 campaign<\/a> \u2013 you can get away with a stunt like that once, but not twice.<\/p>\n The party feels unlikely to crash out of Parliament completely. If it were to come close, you can imagine voters coming back to keep the party alive, much like they did when the Greens flirted with the 5% threshold in 2017.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a small chance a test of the party\u2019s popularity could come very soon indeed. The party hasn\u2019t quite made up its mind whether it wants to trigger the waka-jumping law, forcing Kapa-Kingi and Ferris from Parliament and triggering byelections in their seats.<\/p>\n Nothing like that has yet been seen in MMP politics: it would mean two byelections occurring simultaneously in two of the largest electorates in the country, which together make up more than half of its inhabited land mass. Just one of those electorates, Te Tai Tonga, covers four islands: Wellington in the North Island, the Chatham Islands, Stewart Island\/Rakiura and the entire South Island.<\/p>\n The party seems split on whether such a fight is worth having. It would cost a small fortune for the now independent Kapa-Kingi and Ferris to fight such an election, lacking as they do any real infrastructure. But Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori isn\u2019t flush with cash either, having lost some bulk funding after expelling the two MPs. Labour, which does have the money (but would rather spend it on other things), would probably come through the middle.<\/p>\n The future of the party hangs in the balance. There\u2019s a move to topple Tamihere at next month\u2019s party conference in Rotorua, but his Tammany Hall-style of politics, in which he, his family, and allies weave themselves into every layer of a party\u2019s bureaucracy, means his position in the party is probably safe. You simply cannot extract him from the party and the wider Waipareira network of entities he has built around himself.<\/p>\nTakuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, back in House as independents. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n