Saudi Arabia vital statistics<\/p>\n
GDP per capita per annum: $35,230 (global average<\/a> $14,210)<\/p>\n Total annual tonnes CO2: 736m <\/a>(seventh highest country)<\/p>\n CO2 per capita: 22.13 metric tonnes (global average<\/a> 4.7)<\/p>\n Most recent NDC (carbon plan): 2021<\/a><\/p>\n Climate plans: critically insufficient<\/a><\/p>\n Population: 36 million<\/p>\n Can you imagine someone giving you $170,000 (\u00a3129,000)? What would you buy?<\/p>\n Can you imagine getting another $170,000 one minute later? And the handouts then continuing every minute for years? If so, you have a feel for the colossal cash machine that is Saudi Arabia\u2019s state oil company Aramco, the world\u2019s biggest producer<\/a> of oil and gas last year.<\/p>\n That tidal wave of cash keeps the authoritarian kingdom afloat, as it lavishes money on fossil fuel subsidies for its citizens, soft power projects like the football World Cup and mind-boggling construction projects.<\/p>\n But it is also why the drive for accelerating climate action, principally getting the world off fossil fuels, is seen as an existential threat to Saudi Arabia: its economy and even its ruling royal family.<\/p>\n For decades, Saudi Arabia has fought harder than any other country to block and delay international climate action \u2013 a diplomatic \u201cwrecking ball\u201d saying that abandoning fossil fuels is a fantasy. Its opposition has continued in the run-up to the UN Cop30 climate summit<\/a> in Brazil, yet the country is now also making a whirlwind switch to renewable power at home.<\/p>\n In another contradiction, slowing climate action worsens the impacts on a desert kingdom that is extremely vulnerable to global heating<\/a> and where its 36 million people already contend with conditions \u201cat the verge of livability\u201d.<\/p>\n Graph of Saudi Arabia\u2019s rising CO2 emissions<\/a><\/p>\n How can these contradictions be understood, and can countries desperate to fight a climate crisis that is already killing a person a minute<\/a> outflank Saudi obstruction? \u201cThe Saudis are not crazy.\u201d says Karim Elgendy, an expert on climate and energy in the Middle East. \u201cBut they don\u2019t want to be a failed state.\u201d<\/p>\n The point of the spear<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia almost killed the global UN climate treaty at birth three decades ago. Negotiations veteran Alden Meyer was in the room at the UN headquarters in New York as the gavel was about to come down on a treaty. \u201cFrench diplomat Jean Ripert had to ignore the Saudis, and the Kuwaitis, vigorously waving their nameplates in the back of the room, trying to object to adoption of the treaty. He just ignored them and brought down the gavel.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBut that\u2019s something you can only do if it\u2019s a handful of countries,\u201d he says. Since then, Saudi Arabia has taken care to mobilise the Arab group or other major players, and to great effect. \u201cThey\u2019ve been the point of the spear in terms of organising the resistance,\u201d says Meyer, at the climate thinktank E3G.<\/p>\n An early and pivotal victory for Saudi Arabia and its oil-rich Opec allies was blocking the use of voting to take decisions in UN climate negotiations \u2013 voting is common in other UN bodies. Instead, consensus is needed for approval. \u201cThis impasse has never been overcome. It gives outsized influence to laggards, which suits Saudi Arabia very well,\u201d a report<\/a> by the Climate Social Science Network found, with the impasse since \u201ccrippling\u201d the talks.<\/p>\n Armed with an effective veto, Saudi Arabia has held back climate negotiations ever since by becoming master of the arcane and complicated procedural rules that govern the process, \u201cseeking to ensure it achieves as little as possible, as slowly as possible\u201d, the report said.<\/p>\n Workers constructing the Saudi Arabia pavilion at Cop30 in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil. Photograph: Fernando Llano\/AP<\/p>\n More than a dozen obstruction tactics<\/a> have been deployed, from disputing the agendas to claiming that strands of the talks have no mandate to discuss issues it dislikes \u2013 such as phasing out fossil fuels \u2013 to insisting action to help vulnerable countries adapt to global heating is linked to compensating oil-rich nations for lost sales. Delay is a key aim and, for example, Saudi Arabia strongly opposed any virtual negotiations when Covid shut down the world in 2020. \u201cThey are really good at it, absolutely masterful,\u201d says Dr Joanna Depledge at the University of Cambridge.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia also deploys broader arguments: that the big historical emitters<\/a>, such as the US, Russia and UK, bear the main responsibility for tackling climate change under the terms of the treaty, and that while it sells the oil, helping to fund its development, other nations actually burn it. The Saudi government did not respond to a request for comment from the Guardian.<\/p>\n \u2018Water down, weaken, remove\u2019<\/p>\n In recent years, Saudi climate obstruction has expanded from the climate talks to many international environmental meetings<\/a>. A plan to cap the production of plastic, supported by more than 100 nations, collapsed in August<\/a> after opposition by Saudi Arabia and allies<\/a>, which had also blocked voting in those negotiations<\/p>\n A landmark deal for a carbon tax on shipping was stymied in October after Saudi Arabia \u2013 backing voting on this occasion \u2013 called a successful vote for a postponement<\/a>, amid bullying by the US<\/a>. Even at a UN desertification summit hosted by Saudi Arabia itself in 2024, nations failed to agree on a response to drought because the hosts refused to allow any mention of climate<\/a> in the agreement.<\/p>\n This full-spectrum assault on climate action was memorably described by Meyer as a \u201cwrecking ball<\/a>\u201d last year. \u201cThey definitely are still in that mode,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Saudi minister of energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud speaks with Cop28 president Sultan al-Jaber at Cop29 in Baku. Photograph: Rafiq Maqbool\/AP<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia has also consistently worked to weaken the influential reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are signed off by governments, Meyer says, \u201csystematically trying to water down, weaken and remove\u201d mentions of, for example, \u201cnet zero\u201d<\/a>, despite Riyadh having a 2060 net zero target.<\/p>\n One startling fact illustrates the success of Saudi obstructionism. It took 28 years of annual UN Cop negotiations for the first mention of fossil fuels in the decision, at the Cop28<\/a> summit in Dubai in 2023, sparking an immediate fightback by the Saudis that left that strand of the talks a \u201cdebacle\u201d, according to Depledge. The Saudis claimed the agreed \u201ctransition away from fossil fuels\u201d was just one option on an \u201c\u00e0 la carte menu<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Monopolising fossil fuels<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to grasp the scale of what Saudi Arabia is seeking to protect. Aramco was the world\u2019s biggest oil and gas producer in 2024 and the kingdom has the second biggest proven oil reserves<\/a> in the world (after Venezuela).<\/p>\n Its oil is simple to extract, and its ability to quickly ramp up or cut production gives it the greatest influence over the global oil market, which it uses as part of the Opec+ cartel of oil exporters<\/a> to manipulate the price of oil.<\/p>\n Aramco was the world\u2019s biggest oil and gas producer in 2024. Photograph: Alamy<\/p>\n It costs just $2 to get a barrelful of oil<\/a> out of the ground, Aramco\u2019s chief executive, Amin Nasser, said in October, but that barrel has been selling for between $60 and $80 over the last year. The extraordinary profit margin meant that Aramco banked $250m of profit<\/a> every day from 2016 to 2023, making it the world\u2019s most profitable company over that period.<\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia wants to prevent a strong global response to climate change because they see that as really threatening their economy, for reasons that are pretty damn obvious,\u201d says Depledge.<\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia depends on fossil exports for national survival [and] the regime regards the prospect of a green energy transition as an existential threat,\u201d says historian Nils Gilman, writing recently in Foreign Policy<\/a>. \u201cThe House of Saud uses its oil rents to finance both its domestic social order and its international influence.\u201d For example, Saudi Arabia spent more on fossil fuel subsidies<\/a>, keeping energy cheap<\/a> for its subjects, than it did on its national health budget in 2023.<\/p>\n \u201cIts ambition is not to phase out fossil fuels, but to monopolise them as global supply tightens,\u201d Gilman says, leaving Aramco as the last man standing. In 2024, Aramco had the largest near-term expansion plans<\/a> for oil and gas production<\/a> of any company in the world, 60% of which could not be burned in a 1.5C climate scenario. Aramco declined to comment.<\/p>\n Aramco\u2019s Ras Tanura oil refinery and terminal. Photograph: Ahmed Jadallah\/Reuters<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia is also working to ensure it keeps a steady flow of customers, even as rich nations decarbonise. The Guardian reported in 2023 the revelation of an \u201coil demand sustainability programme\u201d<\/a>, a huge global investment plan to spur demand for its oil and gas in Africa and elsewhere. Critics said the plan was designed to get countries \u201chooked on its harmful products\u201d, driving up the use of fossil fuel-powered cars, buses and planes.<\/p>\n Saudi\u2019s oil cash makes up 60% of its government budget, although that is down from 90% a decade ago<\/a>, as it seeks to diversify its economy away from oil through its Vision 2030 plan<\/a>.<\/p>\n That is a trillion-dollar project \u2013 from the $500bn futuristic city Neom<\/a> to a desert-defying but troubled ski resort<\/a> for the 2029 Asian Winter Games \u2013 but it faces a problem. In order to balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of $96 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics<\/a>. \u201cThe core aim of Vision 2030 is to cut oil dependence,\u201d says Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg. Yet \u201cthe kingdom has become more reliant on oil\u201d.<\/p>\n Design plan for 500-metre-tall parallel structures called the Line, in the projected Red Sea megacity of Neom. Photograph: Neom\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n \u2018Saudi Arabia wants to be a green country\u2019<\/p>\n Karim Elgendy, the head of the Carboun Institute<\/a>, the Middle East\u2019s first independent climate and energy thinktank, says the apparent contradictions in Saudi oil policy around oil can be unravelled by seeing the current strategy as a three-point plan.<\/p>\n The kingdom has always wanted to maintain its oil income, he says: \u201cBut Saudi Arabia realised around [2021] or so that the momentum behind the [green] energy transition is now unstoppable. Since then, the strategy has changed and the approach is now more of a trident.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe first element of it is slowing down the global transition,\u201d he says. \u201cThe second is decarbonising internally. It has found out that new [electricity] capacity is generated much, much cheaper by solar and wind.\u201d This decarbonisation is the role of the Saudi Green Initiative<\/a>, which is pushing towards<\/a> half of electricity capacity being renewable by 2030 and a \u201cflourishing\u201d electric vehicle industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n Usefully, it also slashes Saudi Arabia\u2019s enormous use of oil domestically \u2013 the fourth biggest in the world<\/a> \u2013 meaning billions of dollars worth of more oil for export. As transport expert Anvita Arora at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (Kapsarc) put it in 2022<\/a>: \u201cIf we keep consuming our own oil, we won\u2019t have any oil left to sell.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe third element,\u201d says Elgendy, \u201cis to export every barrel, every molecule, of oil as fast as possible to fund the very thing Saudi Arabia wants to be in the future: diversified and decarbonised.\u201d In essence, it is a race: Saudi Arabia is trying to sell enough oil to fund its transition from a petrostate before the world stops buying.<\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia wants to be a green country,\u201d he says. \u201cIt wants to be a player in the climate economy that is currently being forged, but it can only do so with the money that it is currently making from fossil fuel sales.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAt the moment, it is a rentier economy and the transition period is where it\u2019s most at risk,\u201d Elgendy says. \u201cThe goal is to shorten that period as much as possible, to shorten the darkness.\u201d<\/p>\n Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks at the opening ceremony of the Saudi Green Initiative forum in Riyadh in 2021. Photograph: Fayez Nureldine\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n The kingdom is also pushing the idea of a \u201ccarbon circular economy\u201d, founded on the argument it often makes that oil is not the \u201cdevil\u201d<\/a> \u2013 it\u2019s the emissions that are the climate danger. \u201cThey\u2019ve been trying to play up carbon capture and storage (CCS), which could allow you to reduce emissions while continuing to use their product,\u201d says Meyer. \u201cBut of course, the reality is that CCS is nowhere ready at scale<\/a> to meet any substantial share<\/a> of the emissions reductions needed.\u201d<\/p>\n Overall, Saudi Arabia\u2019s national climate action is judged as \u201ccritically insufficient<\/a>\u201d by Climate Action Tracker, or at best \u201cat the drawing board stage\u201d by another analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2018The verge of livability\u2019<\/p>\n So what is the impact of global heating on the people in the desert kingdom itself? A Guardian analysis of more than a dozen recent scientific studies shows the climate crisis has already arrived and the outlook is daunting.<\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia\u2019s environmental parameters are already at the verge of livability,\u201d a report<\/a> by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust) and Kapsarc said in 2023. It is one of the hottest and most water-stressed countries on Earth.<\/p>\n The report examined the consequences of a 3C hotter world for the kingdom \u2013 the world is on track to hit that<\/a> by about 2100 \u2013 and found it would have \u201cprofound implications on the future viability of a sustainable and healthy society, and will likely manifest an existential crisis to Saudi Arabia\u201d.<\/p>\n But the country is already feeling the heat. The average temperature rose by 2.2C between 1979 and 2019, almost three times faster than the global rate<\/a>, and even faster in Riyadh and Mecca<\/a>, as the dry land of the Arabian peninsula was superheated by the climate crisis. The sun-scorched summers are worse \u2013 the temperature rose by 2.6C over those four decades. Saudi Arabia\u2019s most important event \u2013 the hajj \u2013 has already been hit by extreme heat, with at least 1,300 Muslim pilgrims dying<\/a> in a heatwave in 2024.<\/p>\n The future could be much worse: the worst-case scenario for Saudi Arabia is apocalyptic: \u201cultra-extreme heatwaves<\/a>\u201d with temperatures up to 56C or higher and lasting several weeks, with summers an average 9C hotter.<\/p>\n Even if carbon emissions are sharply cut and global temperature rise is limited to 2C, Saudi Arabia could have a 13-fold increase in heat-related death rates<\/a>. This rises to a 63-fold increase in the worst-case scenario. Coastal cities such as Jeddah and Dammam face the additional risk of humid heat, which is even deadlier than dry heat, as it hinders cooling of the body through sweating.<\/p>\n Drought is one of the biggest concerns, but too much water in the form of flash floods is already an increasing and deadly reality<\/a> in Saudi Arabia, where more than 80% of people live in cities. \u201cAll major cities are vulnerable to flash floods,\u201d said the Kaust-Kapsarc report. \u201cRiyadh has witnessed more than 10 flood events in the past 30 years, which have claimed over 160 human lives and caused substantial socioeconomic losses.\u201d<\/p>\n A man on his phone near a car submerged in flood waters following heavy rain in Riyadh. Photograph: Faisal Al Nasser\/Reuters<\/p>\n Sea levels are inexorably rising and the UN chief, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, has pointed out the \u201cgrim irony<\/a>\u201d of this being set to overwhelm coastal oil terminals, including the ports of Ras Tanura and Yanbu<\/a>, operated by Aramco and used to transport 98% of the country\u2019s oil exports, worth $214bn in 2023.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia\u2019s enormous wealth means it has options not available to poorer nations, such as air conditioning and desalination of seawater. But, if these continue to be powered by fossil fuels, they create a vicious circle.<\/p>\n \u201cThe insatiable energy appetite of modern cities drives further pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, amplifying the very conditions we seek to safeguard against,\u201d said the Kaust-Kapsarc report.<\/p>\n \u201cAt some point, the question will be: can they adapt to the impacts of climate change when it\u2019s physically threatening to go outside your house for any period of time?\u201d says Meyer.<\/p>\n Collateral damage<\/p>\n The problem with Saudi Arabia\u2019s delaying tactics is that they cause collateral damage. \u201cDelaying a fossil fuel phaseout only spells more death and destruction across the planet,\u201d says Nikki Reisch at the Center for International Environmental Law in the US. \u201cWhile Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states pursue plans to wean themselves off the fossil fuels they push on the rest of the world, nobody can escape the climate impacts that their products unleash \u2013 including their own populations.\u201d<\/p>\n Mist dispensers refresh Muslim pilgrims at Mount Arafat during the hajj in 2024. Photograph: Fadel Senna\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n This week, Inger Andersen, head of the UN Environment Programme, said<\/a>: \u201cEvery fraction of a degree avoided is crucial to reduce an escalation of the climate impacts that are harming all nations<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n In the run-up to Cop30, it seems little has changed, with Saudi diplomats again reacting negatively<\/a> to statements backing the \u201ctransition\u201d away from fossil fuels agreed by all at Cop28 in 2023.<\/p>\n In recent years, groups of nations determined to act have got together<\/a> outside the UN process to push progress on, for example, renewables<\/a>, coal<\/a> and forests<\/a>: \u201cYou have seen more efforts to do \u2018coalitions of the willing\u2019 that don\u2019t require consensus decision-making,\u201d says Meyer. \u201cThat\u2019s harder for the Saudis to block.\u201d<\/p>\n