{"id":13755,"date":"2025-09-10T10:52:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T10:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/13755\/"},"modified":"2025-09-10T10:52:28","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T10:52:28","slug":"10-years-from-now-these-are-the-companies-everyone-will-wish-they-owned-sara-allen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/13755\/","title":{"rendered":"10 years from now, these are the companies everyone will wish they owned – Sara Allen"},"content":{"rendered":"

There would be few among us who don\u2019t wish we owned the likes of the Magnificent Seven in their early stages, or even simply a decade ago. Even then, investors considered the likes of Apple, Nvidia or Microsoft expensive. How high they have climbed since then, but of course, the market changes. History suggests these businesses may not be the dominant market leaders in a decade.<\/p>\n

The typical cycle for market leadership turnover is 20-25 years, though 81% of the audience at Livewire Live 2025 believes that in the future, this turnover will be faster \u2013 under a decade. Be afraid, market leaders\u2026<\/p>\n

Livewire\u2019s Chris Conway<\/a>\u00a0asked three experts to sift through the existing market to project who will be the leaders in the next decade, that is, the companies you should be eyeing off right now.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The panel included:<\/p>\n

Where to hunt for future leaders<\/p>\n

The experts shared two ways of looking for tomorrow\u2019s winners \u2013 in the big themes and concerns of today, as well as those consistent needs and requirements.<\/p>\n

AI is a dominant theme and both Qiao and Cummings expect it to continue to be.<\/p>\n

\u201cAI is not a thing. It\u2019s not the next snazzy app. It is a change in the various fabric and architecture of our software stack globally. When we have discussions around AI, right now we\u2019ve focused on pick and shovel providers,\u201d Cummings says.<\/p>\n

Qiao agrees, reminding the audience that we are only three years into the AI trend and there\u2019s plenty to run. Her approach has been to focus on what might change.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of these really large trillion-dollar markets are being disrupted or accelerated one way or another by AI,\u201d Qiao says, pointing to healthcare and defense as examples.<\/p>\n

Turning to the idea of consistent needs and requirements, Allen cites Jeff Bezos and the idea that, rather than predicting the innovations, you consider what won\u2019t change. For example, in the case of Amazon, the idea that regardless of other changes, people will always want cheap goods, a wide variety to select from, and fast delivery.<\/p>\n

Allen\u2019s view on what won\u2019t change considered the geopolitical climate. He views defence spending as a key theme to watch. European defence spending has stepped up the most it has since World War II. Allen expects this to be a decade-long trend, with real opportunities for value creation.<\/p>\n

What does a future leader look like<\/p>\n

The stock market is filled with the wrecks of companies that couldn\u2019t execute for the long term, and for Qiao, there are a few traits she looks for to find resilient long-term success.<\/p>\n

A large addressable market undergoing significant change such that incumbents no longer have an advantage.
\nA loyal and passionate customer base.
\nA visionary and aligned leader who can draw the best market talent.
\nProfitable.<\/p>\n

In addition to this, Allen cautions investors to not simply be drawn by exciting stories.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe type of growth that is really valuable and underappreciated by markets is companies who have a consistent track record of growing free cash flow organically. Not by acquisition, not by potential engineering, not pie in the sky,\u201d he says.
\nThe stocks the experts tip as future market leaders
\nCummings: Spotify (NYSE: SPOT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Five
\nFive year share price performance for Spotify. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

\u201cSpotify is now fully and completely demonstrating the signs of a long-term winning aggregator in much the same way Amazon did for us many years ago. They are taking something like 50-60% incremental growth share,\u201d Cummings says.<\/p>\n

He notes that streaming is under-penetrated in developed markets at around 50%, with developing markets well below that and believes that music as a category is still under-monetised.<\/p>\n

QIAO: NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Five<\/p>\n

Five year share price performance of NVIDIA. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

Qiao expects Nvidia\u2019s reign to continue, viewing plenty to come in the AI space. She argues that it will be foundational for companies that haven\u2019t been developed yet, given how early in the AI phase we are and points to Nvidia\u2019s strong backlog and growth ahead. <\/p>\n

\u201cNvidia is on a one-year cadence [for chip development]. No one in the semiconductor hardware industry has ever been on a one-year cadence. It takes about three to five years,\u201d she says, explaining that by the time competitors catch up to Nvidia\u2019s release this year, it will already be deploying the next big chip.<\/p>\n

Allen: Rheinmetall (XETR: RHM)<\/p>\n

\"Five<\/p>\n

Five year share price performance for Rheinmetall. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

In keeping with watching European defence spending, Allen tips Rheinmetall as his pick, calling it the \u201cbedrock of Europe\u2019s land defence system\u201d. It currently has a $55bn order backlog.<\/p>\n

Allen puts his view in context of the broader geopolitical situation in Europe.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe European defence industry is about a third to maybe 40% the size of the US, and yet the population of Europe is 540 million versus the US at around 340. It is undersized and needs a whole decade of intensive spend, but there wasn\u2019t the political will historically,\u201d Allen says.<\/p>\n

He argues that there are enough meaningful risks to ensure political appetite in Europe to continue spend for at least the next decade, benefiting Rheinmetall as the dominant market player.<\/p>\n

Surprise picks to watch<\/p>\n

The experts were also invited to nominate some surprise players to contend for Nvidia\u2019s crown in the future. They shared AI players and an expected business described as \u201cpretty low tech, frankly pretty boring, but boring businesses are get-rich-slow schemes\u201d.<\/p>\n

Cummings: Progressive Insurance (NYSE: PGR<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Five<\/p>\n

Five year share price performance for The Progressive Corporation. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

This \u201cfrankly pretty boring business\u201d has disrupted the auto insurance industry, is profitable and continues to evolve to use new technologies to drive market share, according to Cummings.<\/p>\n

QIAO: Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) <\/p>\n

\"Share<\/p>\n

Share price performance for Astera Labs. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

Astera Labs was developed to help chips connect better to other chips to allow for multiple chips to act as one in a rack, meaning more rapid and better connectivity. Qiao believes the opportunities for this business will exponentially grow.<\/p>\n

Allen: Palantir Technology (NASDAQ: PLTR<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Five<\/p>\n

Five year share price performance for Palantir. Source: Yahoo Finance, 9 September 2025<\/p>\n

Allen highlights Palantir operates at the crossroads of three big megatrends: defence, datafication and AI. It is generating substantial free cashflow and has opportunities across industries.<\/p>\n

Do you agree with the experts? Let us know your picks for the next NVIDIA in the comments below and stay tuned for more great content from Livewire Live 2025.<\/p>\n

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