China\u2019s growth outlook is deteriorating as fading export momentum exposes deeper structural weaknesses in the economy, Nomura warned at a recent investment forum. The bank\u2019s chief China economist said the combination of a prolonged property downturn, soft consumer spending and shrinking fixed-asset investment leaves the economy increasingly reliant on policy support.<\/p>\n
Nomura now expects China\u2019s GDP growth to slip toward 4% over the coming quarters. While official data showed a 5.2% year-on-year expansion for the first nine months of 2025, quarterly growth slowed to 4.8% in Q3 \u2014 a pace Nomura sees as a sign of broadening deceleration across investment, consumption and trade.<\/p>\n
Fixed-asset investment \u2014 which makes up roughly 40% of GDP \u2014 has been contracting every month since June and plunged 12.2% in October, a decline Nomura called \u201chistorically rare.\u201d Retail sales have also weakened, easing from 3.7% growth in July to 2.9% in October, with the bank warning the rate may drift toward 2% in the months ahead. <\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
The warning reinforces expectations of further policy easing from Beijing and may weigh on China-sensitive assets, commodities and regional FX, particularly if data continue trending toward 4% growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"China\u2019s growth outlook is deteriorating as fading export momentum exposes deeper structural weaknesses in the economy, Nomura warned…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":139187,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,94735,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-139186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-china-growth-momentum-deteriorates","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139186\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}