00:00 Speaker A <\/p>\n
Big jobs report on deck. What what is the Joe Brusuelas forecast? What do you see for this labor market? <\/p>\n
00:03 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
Alright, so what I think we’re going to do is we’re going to see a a mild gain right around what’s necessary to stabilize the labor market. <\/p>\n
00:09 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
So around 50,000. <\/p>\n
00:11 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
Now, I’m expecting backward up revisions to both July and August. <\/p>\n
00:16 Speaker A <\/p>\n
You are. Okay. <\/p>\n
00:17 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
Yeah, so I’m looking at this in a different way. I’m looking at the top line gain, but I’m more interested in the total change in employment, which will change those weaker months. <\/p>\n
00:23 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
And then we’ll better get a better sense at where we think that growth is. <\/p>\n
00:28 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
You know, because of demographics, baby boomers retiring, immigration policy and some of the pervasive uncertainty around the entire policy uh community. <\/p>\n
00:37 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
You know, things have slowed. <\/p>\n
00:39 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
But they’re not going to cause the economy to tip over. <\/p>\n
00:42 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
You know, one of the things I’m also pushing out there with our clients, both internal and external, is look at the prime age 25 to 54 labor force participation rate. <\/p>\n
00:51 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
It’s just below the cyclical peak that we posted in uh July 2024 at 83.9, it’s sitting at 83.7. <\/p>\n
00:59 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
If it stays at or around that, as we get partial jobs data over the next several weeks, because we’re going to get three different jobs reports in the space of about five to seven weeks. <\/p>\n
01:05 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
If it remains there, all it means is is that we’ve just gone through a lot of noise, that the economy’s just what it is. <\/p>\n
01:10 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
It’s very resilient and it’s going to continue to to expand. <\/p>\n
01:14 Joe Brusuelas <\/p>\n
Albeit at a fairly slow pace that’s going to be driven of course by upper end household. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"00:00 Speaker A Big jobs report on deck. What what is the Joe Brusuelas forecast? What do you…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":142710,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,5615,219,47462,18299,111,139,69,96515],"class_list":["post-142709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-chief-economist","tag-economy","tag-government-shutdown","tag-joe-brusuelas","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-rsm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142709"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142709\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142710"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}