Indonesia vital statistics<\/p>\n
GDP per capita per annum: $5,070 (global average<\/a> $14,210)<\/p>\n Total annual tonnes CO2: 812m<\/a> <\/p>\n CO2 per capita: 2.87 metric tonnes (global average<\/a> 4.7)<\/p>\n Most recent NDC (carbon plan): 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Climate plans: critically insufficient<\/a><\/p>\n Population: 283 million<\/p>\n A couple of months ago Bali experienced its worst floods in more than a decade.<\/p>\n They came at the peak of the dry season. Instead of the empty wells farmers faced last year, this time their crops were washed away; roads turned into brown, swirling rivers; houses collapsed in the torrents; and 17 people were killed.<\/p>\n Indonesia, the world\u2019s fourth-most populous country, faces a paradox. Sometimes described as a sleeping giant, it is one of the world\u2019s most climate-vulnerable nations, but most people do not realise it is also the sixth-largest greenhouse-gas emitter.\u00a0<\/p>\n Indonesia has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades, at an average of 5% a year since 1997. But this progress has been powered by carbon-intensive resources at a steep cost to the environment.\u00a0<\/p>\n People try to clean up their shop after severe flooding in Denpasar, Bali, in September. Photograph: Anadolu\/Getty<\/p>\n Deforestation, peatland drainage and the extraction and burning of coal have powered Indonesia\u2019s development model, reshaping landscapes through timber, pulp and mineral excavation and palm-oil booms.\u00a0<\/p>\n Indonesia produces<\/a> 55% of the world\u2019s palm oil, a sector that contributes 4.5% of GDP and employs more than 3 million people.\u00a0More than 90% of Indonesia\u2019s energy comes from fossil fuels; coal dominates, providing 70% of electricity, and the country remains the world\u2019s largest exporter.<\/p>\n Emissions<\/a> are high: Indonesia released an average of 1.5bn tonnes of CO2-equivalent annually in 2018\u201320, about 3.5% of the global total. Now the challenge is to decouple emissions from economic growth.<\/p>\n First must come coal. But although there is a moratorium on new coal plants \u201con paper\u201d, Putra Adhiguna, the managing director of the Indonesian independent thinktank Energy Shift Institute, said a loophole allowed new \u201ccaptive\u201d plants (power plants owned by single industrial users) to power nickel smelters and industrial projects. Research<\/a> shows captive-power capacity in Indonesia has more than doubled over five years, reaching 22.9GW in 2024 \u2013 more than 80% of which is from coal-fired plants and largely outside state oversight.<\/p>\n Adhiguna said Indonesia must \u201cdismantle its coal mindset\u201d, which means removing the domestic price cap that keeps coal artificially cheap and blocks renewables from competing. \u201cIndonesia\u2019s renewable growth is really quite abysmal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The drive to become a global supplier of minerals such as nickel, vital for electric vehicles, might bring jobs and investment, but it also leads to deforestation and pollution in Sulawesi and Maluku and is mostly powered by coal.<\/p>\n Then there is the land sector<\/a>, which accounted for about 40% of Indonesia\u2019s emissions until 2020, particularly from deforestation and peatland fires. Indonesia is home to 10% of the world\u2019s remaining tropical rainforest and the largest area of tropical peatlands of any country \u2013 estimated to hold tens of billions of tonnes of carbon.\u00a0<\/p>\n A baby orangutan hangs in a tree in a tropical rainforest in Borneo. Photograph: Panther Media GmbH\/Alamy<\/p>\n In 2015, during a severe El Ni\u00f1o that fuelled huge peatland fires, Indonesia\u2019s carbon output briefly surpassed<\/a> that of the US. Deforestation rates have now fallen to their lowest in two decades, but environmentalists fear backsliding as the government pursues its huge food-estate programme which has cleared rainforest in Papua and Kalimantan and expands palm-oil biofuels under its B35 (35% palm oil-based biofuel and 65% fossil diesel fuel) and B40 (40% palm oil-based biofuel and 60% fossil diesel fuel) mandates.<\/p>\n Satellite data this year shows new deforestation and fire hotspots in south Sumatra and central Kalimantan. Vast peat swamps \u2013 once waterlogged carbon sinks \u2013 continue to be drained for plantations, leaving tinder-dry material that burn and smoulder for weeks.<\/p>\n Indonesian firefighters try to extinguish a peatland fire in Ogan Ilir, south Sumatra, in August 2021. Photograph: Anadolu Agency\/Getty<\/p>\n And yet climate change is hitting Indonesians hard.\u00a0 \u201cBali was a place that rarely experienced flooding,\u201d said Made Krisna Dinata, the executive director of the NGO Walhi Bali<\/a>. \u201cNow, we can no longer see or even predict when these seasons will come and go.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s a similar pattern across the archipelago, with increasing numbers of devastating climate-related disasters threatening food security and traditional ways of life.\u00a0In urban areas, extreme heat is increasingly felt, while coastal regions face sea-level rise, coral bleaching and sinking land.\u00a0<\/p>\n Indigenous communities face exacerbated struggles, often lacking access to the government\u2019s social and health insurance because their homes are situated in remote or forest areas.<\/p>\n Fires burn in a rainforest cleared to plant palm oil trees in Tripa, Aceh province in June 2009. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg\/Getty<\/p>\n How committed is the country to change? In September, the government released its second nationally determined contribution, targeting a 31.89% emissions cut unconditionally \u2013 or 43.2% with foreign support \u2013 by 2030, which goes 8-17.5% deeper than before.\u00a0<\/p>\n The plan is heavily reliant on land-use change, including restoring 2m hectares (5m acres) of peatlands, rehabilitating 8.3m hectares (20.5m acres) of degraded land and increasing renewables to 19-23% of the power mix. However, to meet those targets, Indonesia says it will need at least US$470bn (\u00a3360bn) in investment by 2030.<\/p>\n Indonesian environmentalists have criticised the plan as not ambitious enough, while others argue execution will be the real test.<\/p>\n Adhiguna said Indonesia might say it wanted to join the global shift to clean energy, but \u201cpolicies and investments continue to lock the country into fossil-fuel dependency for decades to come\u201d.<\/p>\n Renewables account for less than 15% of the energy mix<\/a>, despite vast potential. The Just Energy Transition Partnership, a US$20bn pledge from wealthy nations to speed the phase-out of coal, has stalled in bureaucracy.<\/p>\n \u201cThe key is to reinvest fossil-fuel profits domestically,\u201d Adhiguna said. \u201cIndonesia is making a boatload of money out of fossil fuel. That money needs to be reinvested in the country for greener opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n He also said that as China, Indonesia\u2019s biggest coal customer, shifts toward renewables, the country risks being left behind.\u00a0<\/p>\n For Indonesia, climate action is inseparable from fairness. The Indonesian government has long argued that countries with large historic emissions should bear greater burdens and that to transition away from coal and ramp up renewables it needs international investment and supportive frameworks.<\/p>\n Houses along the banks of Ciliwung River in Jakarta, Indonesia, where people live in poverty. Photograph: Bagus Indahono\/EPA<\/p>\n Sisilia Nurmala Dewi of 350.org<\/a> said while that was true, Indonesia also needed to do more at home.\u00a0\u201cWe want to ask for energy transition money, we want to unlock that finance, but at the same time our policies are not signalling that we really want to transition,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n On forests, Indonesia has been involved in the UN\u2019s Redd+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) programme. Billions were promised through partnerships with Norway and others, including up to US$110m to East Kalimantan. But progress has been uneven, hindered by disputes over land rights and verification.<\/p>\n \u201cThe concept is good,\u201d Tiza Mafira, Indonesia\u2019s director at the Climate Policy Initiative, said, \u201cbut we need better governance and accountability. Forest protection cannot depend on short-term donor projects \u2013 it must be part of a long-term national strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n Indonesia is also expanding its carbon markets and pitching them to investors at Cop30. A voluntary exchange launched in 2023 has begun trading credits from forestry and energy projects, while a national emissions-trading system is being extended to power and industry.<\/p>\n The road to Cop30<\/p>\n At Cop30 in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil, to which Indonesia has sent more than 400 delegates, it is positioning itself as a voice for the global south \u2013 pushing for climate equity and fair financing. Officials will tout the new NDC as proof of ambition, even as domestic growth depends on coal, nickel and palm oil.<\/p>\n The focus will be on affirming the 2030 forest and other land use (Folu) net sink target<\/a> and highlighting its carbon-market potential to attract investors.<\/p>\n Hanif Faisol Nurofiq, Indonesia\u2019s minister for the environment, speaks at Cop30 in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil. Photograph: Fernando Llano\/AP<\/p>\n Adhiguna said near-term action was critical. The government\u2019s emissions\u2019 peak has already been pushed back to 2035, demanding faster cuts later. He hopes Cop30 will offer \u201cclarity on the realisation plan for the president\u2019s 100GW renewable targets\u201d, alongside firm commitments to phase out coal and preserve rainforests.<\/p>\n