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<\/a><\/p>\nBy Brendan Mackey<\/a><\/p>\n Published On 20 Nov 202520 Nov 2025<\/p>\n Click here to share on social media<\/p>\n share2<\/p>\n As COP30 negotiations in Belem enter their final stretch, there is hope that countries might finally agree on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels \u2014 a breakthrough that is crucial if we are serious about keeping 1.5C alive<\/a>. Yet even at this pivotal moment, one major highway is still missing from that roadmap that could undermine the progress made in Brazil: the carbon emissions of the military.<\/p>\n Under the Paris Agreement, governments are not required to report their militaries\u2019 emissions, and most simply don\u2019t. Recent analysis by the Military Emissions Gap<\/a> project shows that what little data exists is patchy, inconsistent or missing entirely. This \u201cmilitary emissions gap\u201d is the gulf between what governments disclose and the true scale of military pollution. The result is stark: militaries remain largely invisible in the Belem negotiations, creating a dangerous blind spot in global climate action.<\/p>\n The size of that blind spot is staggering. Militaries account for an estimated 5.5 percent of global emissions. This share is set to rise further as defence spending surges while the rest of society decarbonises. If militaries were a country, they would be the fifth-largest emitter on Earth, ahead of Russia with 5 percent. Yet only five countries follow the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change\u2019s (UNFCCC) voluntary reporting guidelines for military emissions, and those cover fuel use alone. The reality is far broader: munitions production and disposal, waste management and fugitive emissions from refrigeration, air-conditioning, radar and electrical equipment are left out. And operations in international waters and airspace are not reported at all, leaving massive gaps in both climate accountability and action.<\/p>\n The military emissions gap widens further still when we consider the climate impact of armed conflicts. As if the horror and human suffering from fighting wars were not enough, wars also destroy ecosystems, leave a toxic legacy on lands for decades to follow, and result in significant CO2 emissions, including from the rebuilding following the destruction of buildings and infrastructure. But without any internationally agreed framework to measure conflict emissions, these additional emissions risk going unreported, meaning that we don\u2019t know how much wars are setting back climate action.<\/p>\n But despite this, momentum for accountability is finally building. Nearly 100 organisations have signed the War on Climate initiative\u2019s pledges<\/a> ahead of COP30, and protesters and civil society groups in Belem are demanding the UNFCCC confront this long-ignored source of pollution. Policymakers are starting to shift, too. The European Union has taken steps towards more transparent reporting and decarbonisation in the defence sector, though this progress is now threatened by rapid rearmament. Combined with NATO\u2019s new target for members to spend 5 percent of gross domestic product on militaries, these pledges could produce up to 200 million tonnes of CO2 and trigger as much as $298bn in climate damages annually, putting Europe\u2019s own climate goals at risk.<\/p>\n