Vast swathes of Europe\u2019s water reserves are drying up, a new analysis using two decades of satellite data reveals, with freshwater storage shrinking across southern and central Europe, from Spain and Italy to Poland and parts of the UK.<\/p>\n
Scientists at University College London (UCL), working with Watershed Investigations and the Guardian, analysed 2002\u201324 data from satellites, which track changes in Earth\u2019s gravitational field.<\/p>\n
Because water is heavy, shifts in groundwater, rivers, lakes, soil moisture and glaciers show up in the signal, allowing the satellites to effectively \u201cweigh\u201d how much water is stored.<\/p>\n
The findings reveal a stark imbalance: the north and north-west of Europe \u2013 particularly Scandinavia, parts of the UK and Portugal \u2013 have been getting wetter, while large swathes of the south and south-east, including parts of the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, Germany, Romania and Ukraine, have been drying out.<\/p>\n
Graphic of Europe with heat map<\/a><\/p>\n Climate breakdown can be seen in the data, the scientists say. \u201cWhen we compare the total terrestrial water storage data with climate datasets, the trends broadly correlate,\u201d said Mohammad Shamsudduha, professor of water crisis and risk reduction at UCL.<\/p>\n It should be a \u201cwake-up call\u201d for politicians still sceptical about cutting emissions, said Shamsudduha. \u201cWe\u2019re no longer talking about limiting warming to 1.5C, we\u2019re likely heading toward 2C above preindustrial levels, and we\u2019re now witnessing the consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n Doctoral researcher Arifin isolated groundwater storage from the total terrestrial water data and found that trends in these more resilient water bodies mirrored the overall picture, confirming that much of Europe\u2019s hidden freshwater reserves are being depleted.<\/p>\n Trends in the UK are mixed. \u201cOverall, the west is getting wetter while the east is becoming drier and that signal is getting stronger,\u201d said Shamsudduha.<\/p>\n \u201cAlthough total rainfall may be stable, or even slightly increasing, the pattern is changing. We\u2019re seeing heavier downpours and longer dry spells, especially in summer.\u201d<\/p>\n Groundwater is seen as more climate-resilient than surface water but heavy summer downpours often mean more water is lost to runoff and flash flooding, while the winter groundwater recharge season may be shortening, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIn south-east England, where groundwater supplies about 70% of public water, these shifting rainfall patterns could pose serious challenges.\u201d<\/p>\n The total amount of water taken from surface and groundwater across the EU between 2000 and 2022 decreased, according to European Environment Agency<\/a> data, but groundwater abstractions increased by 6%, attributed to public water supply (18%) and farming (17%).<\/p>\n It is a critical resource: across member states, groundwater accounted for 62% of the total public water supply and 33% of agricultural water demands during 2022.<\/p>\n A spokesperson for the European Commission said its water resilience strategy \u201caims to help member states adapt their water resource management to climate change and to address man-made pressures\u201d.<\/p>\n The strategy aims to build a \u201cwater-smart economy\u201d and is paired with a commission recommendation on water efficiency, which calls for improving efficiency by \u201cat least 10% until 2030\u201d. With leakage levels varying from 8% to 57% across the bloc, the commission says cutting pipe losses and modernising infrastructure will be crucial.<\/p>\n Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, said: \u201cIt\u2019s distressing to see this long-term trend, because we\u2019ve seen some very large droughts recently and we\u2019re constantly hearing that this winter we might have less than usual rainfall and we\u2019re already in drought<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cNext spring and summer, if we don\u2019t get the rainfall we need, there will be severe consequences for us here in England. We will face severe water restrictions and that will make everybody\u2019s life very difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n The Environment Agency has already warned England to prepare for drought continuing into 2026 unless there is significant rain over autumn and winter.<\/p>\n The water minister, Emma Hardy, said there is \u201cincreasing pressure on our water resources. That is why this government is taking decisive action, including the development of nine new reservoirs to help secure long-term water resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n But simply \u201cpromising very large reservoirs that won\u2019t come online for a few decades is not going to solve the problem immediately,\u201d said Cloke.<\/p>\n \u201cWe should be focusing on water reuse, using less water in the first place, separating drinking water from those recycled waters that we could use, using nature-based solutions, and thinking about the way that we\u2019re building developments,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re just not doing these things fast enough to keep pace with these long-term trends.\u201d<\/p>\n Europe\u2019s drying trend will have \u201cfar-reaching\u201d impacts, hitting food security, farming and water-dependent ecosystems, especially groundwater-fed habitats,\u201d according to Shamsudduha. Spain\u2019s shrinking reserves, he said, could directly affect the UK, which relies heavily on Spain and other European countries for fruit and produce.<\/p>\n The kinds of climate impacts long seen across the global south, from south Asia to Africa and the Middle East, are now \u201cmuch closer to home\u201d, with climate change \u201cclearly affecting Europe itself\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to accept that climate change is real, it\u2019s happening and it\u2019s affecting us,\u201d Shamsudduha said, calling for better water management and openness to \u201cnew, even unconventional\u201d ideas, including widespread rainwater harvesting in countries such as the UK.<\/p>\n Globally, drying hotspots are emerging across the Middle East, Asia, South America, along the US west coast and across swathes of Canada, with Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard also showing dramatic drying trends.<\/p>\n