Success Is a Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals by Changing the Odds<\/a> argues that probability, not positivity, is the most overlooked driver of achievement. His work blends behavioral science with practical strategy\u2014offering a refreshing counterpoint to the culture of \u201cjust believe in yourself.\u201d<\/p>\nYoung believes the biggest mistake people make in assessing chances is mathematical, not motivational.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe most common mistake people make when assessing their odds is averaging,\u201d Young says. \u201cLet\u2019s say you\u2019re hoping to run a marathon, and your running coach says, to be successful, you must stick to her training routine, nutrition plan, and sleep schedule. In your gut, you feel good about your ability to follow these three guidelines. You\u2019d say there\u2019s a 70% chance for each of them. Your odds of being ready on race day are pretty good, right? Actually, you have a 34% chance of accomplishing this goal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Humans, Young explains, are natural overestimators.<\/p>\n
\u201cHumans tend to overestimate their odds of success because they assume if each prerequisite step appears likely to happen, they\u2019re primed for a good outcome. In reality, when you need a list of things to go right, you must multiply the individual odds together.\u201d<\/p>\n
The result, he says, is that \u201cyou\u2019ll often find your initial outlook is much worse than you expected. The good news is, we don\u2019t have to settle for the odds we\u2019re dealt. We can change them.\u201d<\/p>\n
So how do we do that?<\/p>\n
\u201cIdentify the bad outcome you feel is most likely to happen,\u201d Young says. \u201cThis is the biggest threat to your success. Finding creative ways to derisk it is an easy lever you can pull to quickly improve your odds.\u201d<\/p>\n
That theme\u2014derisking success\u2014runs through his entire framework. Instead of trying to pump up optimism, he suggests systematically reducing the probability of failure.<\/p>\n
\u201cA \u2018good\u2019 decision made with bad information is primed for a bad outcome,\u201d he explains. \u201cWhen making data-driven decisions, it\u2019s crucial to ensure we\u2019re working with good data and using it in a relevant context.\u201d<\/p>\n
But numbers alone aren\u2019t enough. When asked about intuition, Young offers a nuanced view:<\/p>\n
\u201cThis depends, in large part, on the depth of your experience. Sometimes \u2018intuition\u2019 is just thinly veiled greed, hope, or anxiety. In other cases (more commonly among experts) intuition is a case of the subconscious reaching an important conclusion before the conscious mind has the ability to articulate the reasoning behind it.\u201d<\/p>\n
His rule of thumb? \u201cTypically, it\u2019s wise for beginners to trust numbers, whereas true experts might occasionally notice things the numbers failed to take into account.\u201d<\/p>\n
Failure, Young insists, is another misunderstood variable in the success equation.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne way is to recognize that the progress made in pursuit of an unsuccessful goal can be repurposed with a different ending in mind,\u201d he said, citing the early creators of YouTube \u2014 who began with a dating site idea that flopped before pivoting to something world-changing. \u201cRather than throw the failed idea away, the friends decided to pivot, allowing users to leverage the technology to upload videos of just about anything. They later sold their website (now known as YouTube) for over $1.5 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n
Young wants people to start viewing every goal as a probability problem\u2014one that can be improved through deliberate risk reduction.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou have to recognize that every goal you\u2019re pursuing has two hidden numbers attached to it\u2014a probability of success and a probability of failure,\u201d he says. \u201cYour odds of success can be understood as the odds of each thing that has to go right, multiplied together.\u201d<\/p>\n
Young believes leaders can use this mindset to inspire teams.<\/p>\n
\u201cSuccess Diagrams\u2014essentially, a list of everything that has to go right and what might instead go wrong\u2014are incredibly useful tools for collaboration,\u201d he says. \u201cBrainstorming ways to disarm potential bad outcomes and tracking your odds of success over time are both practical ways to increase team buy-in and foster a sense of excitement.\u201d<\/p>\n
And when it comes to innovation, Young points out that history\u2019s most creative figures were also some of its most prolific.<\/p>\n
\u201cMozart composed over 600 pieces of music. Beethoven composed over 700. Van Gogh produced a new work of art every 36 hours, on average, for ten years. Ben & Jerry\u2019s developed hundreds of experimental flavors. Edison experimented with over 6,000 filaments. This inglorious, unnuanced approach explains many of history\u2019s most \u2018innovative\u2019 careers. It\u2019s a painstaking but reliable way to turn a 1% chance of success into a good outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n
The key metric, he says, isn\u2019t productivity for its own sake. It\u2019s measurable progress toward actual success.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the most counterintuitive lessons Young has learned about success?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe power of \u2018thinking negative,\u2019\u201d he says. \u201cIn pursuit of big goals, we\u2019re often told to focus on the positive and avoid concerns about what might go wrong. The truth is exactly opposite. Only by brainstorming bad outcomes can we take intentional steps to improve our odds of success.\u201d<\/p>\n
His closing advice distills his philosophy to a practical exercise:<\/p>\n
\u201cCreate a success diagram. Make a list of everything that has to go right in order to achieve the goal you\u2019re chasing. For each thing that needs to go right, imagine what could go wrong. Then, get creative and look for opportunities to intentionally reduce your risk of experiencing these bad potential outcomes. In doing so, you\u2019ll bring those odds over to your side. In a single goal, this might change your outcome. Over the course of many goals, it could change your life.\u201d<\/p>\n
Success, in Kyle Austin Young\u2019s world, isn\u2019t about magic, motivation, or mindset\u2014it\u2019s about math. But there\u2019s comfort in that. If success is a numbers game, then every setback, every recalculation, and every experiment gives us another chance to change the odds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When people talk about success, they often speak in terms of passion, persistence, or purpose. But what if…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":169518,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[138,2046,246,374,1043,111,139,69,244,245,3502,17708],"class_list":{"0":"post-169517","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-career","10":"tag-finance","11":"tag-innovation","12":"tag-leadership","13":"tag-new-zealand","14":"tag-newzealand","15":"tag-nz","16":"tag-personal-finance","17":"tag-personalfinance","18":"tag-success","19":"tag-workplace"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/169518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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