{"id":173963,"date":"2025-12-08T17:17:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T17:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/173963\/"},"modified":"2025-12-08T17:17:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T17:17:08","slug":"a-30-year-old-sea-level-rise-projection-has-basically-come-true-yale-climate-connections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/173963\/","title":{"rendered":"A 30-year-old sea level rise projection has basically come true \u00bb Yale Climate Connections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Transcript:<\/p>\n<p>According to a new study, one of the first estimates of sea level rise made by the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change closely matches what actually happened over the past 30 years.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00f6rnqvist: \u201cWhat we found was that they did remarkably well.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/sse.tulane.edu\/eens\/faculty\/tornqvist\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Torbj\u00f6rn T\u00f6rnqvist<\/a> of Tulane University.<\/p>\n<p>In the nineties, the IPCC released a report with different scenarios for carbon emissions and what each would mean for global sea level rise.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00f6rnqvist\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2025ef006533\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">study<\/a> found that real-world emissions have closely tracked one of the report\u2019s middle-of-the-road scenarios.<\/p>\n<p>And global sea levels have risen about nine centimeters \u2013 very close to the eight predicted by the U.N. report.<\/p>\n<p>Those early predictions were made without today\u2019s advanced computer models, and they over- or underestimated the impacts of some drivers of sea level rise. <\/p>\n<p>But T\u00f6rnqvist says it shows that even 30 years ago, scientists understood the fundamentals of climate change.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00f6rnqvist: \u201cI find it hard to think of any other form of evidence that is more compelling to demonstrate that this is happening, it has been happening for a long time, and we know why, and we understand it, and we can make credible projections.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Reporting credit: Ethan Freedman \/ ChavoBart Digital Media<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Transcript: According to a new study, one of the first estimates of sea level rise made by the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":173964,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[273,111,139,69,147,36007],"class_list":{"0":"post-173963","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-new-zealand","10":"tag-newzealand","11":"tag-nz","12":"tag-science","13":"tag-sea-level-rise"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}