Pakenham takes centre stage in Victoria on Saturday, with their Cup day meeting which also includes the $1m Supernova.<\/p>\n
The track is likely to be rated a Good 4 and the rail will be out 2m for the entire circuit.<\/p>\n
Race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for the card below.<\/p>\n
R1 \u2013 VOBIS Silver (1000m)<\/p>\n
Only one of these, Ivy, has been to the races before and she didn’t set the world on fire. Milsons Point (1) has jumped out well enough at Cranbourne and has drawn much better than the other debutants in the market, Bright Star (6) and Tag The Bride (9). The latter has won two jumpouts here, one on the turf and one on the synth.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Tricky start with mostly debutants. Maybe follow the late money.<\/p>\n
R2 \u2013 BM78 Handicap (2500m)<\/p>\n
Leonchroi (13) keeps running well without winning. He has cost himself on a couple of occasions and is still a work in progress after seven starts. He has settled back from really wide gates at his last two starts but might be a bit closer in the run in this from barrier two.<\/p>\n
Shockletz (1) looked set for a big summer campaign after an excellent first-up win over 1600m, but her last couple have been pretty underwhelming, albeit with a couple of excuses. Her best is better than these but she needs to lift.<\/p>\n
Texas Tea (12) is consistent and Maher couldn’t have him much fitter coming off three 2000m+ runs in a row.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Leonchroi (13) on top but not attacking this race with a great deal of confidence.<\/p>\n
R3 \u2013 BM78 Handicap (1600m)<\/p>\n
I Only Wish (8) has been getting a long way back in her races but might be able to land a bit closer here from barrier two. She’s won 2 from 2 over the Pakenham mile and should be peaking fourth-up for the campaign.<\/p>\n
Jenni Gone Bonkers (9) walked in at this track two-back, before finishing 2nd in the Listed Twilight Glow (1400m) at Caulfield last start. She had every chance there and was a little disappointing given the SP ($1.55) but she’s certainly capable of bouncing back.<\/p>\n
Miss Playlounge (6) has won 2 of her last 3 but steps up in grade here. She gets blinkers (near side) for the first time and has drawn nicely in barrier five.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: I Only Wish (8) for the win.<\/p>\n
R4 \u2013 BM74 Handicap (1000m)<\/p>\n
I liked Perilous Fighter (1) in a similar race to this last Saturday but he was scratched when the rain arrived. His last two runs indicate he’s back in form and there’s no doubt he should have finished closer in this grade at Caulfield last start. The drop back to 1000m looks okay given the gap between runs.<\/p>\n
Biancelli (7) won her first three starts and was solid in defeat at Cranbourne last start. Barrier eight is a little tricky but she’s a horse on the up.<\/p>\n
Sweethearted (6) has been fair in two runs since resuming and she’ll find this easier than the BM80 she contested at Flemington last start. She’s 1 from 1 on her home deck.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Perilous Fighter (1) each-way. BEST VALUE<\/p>\n
R5 \u2013 BM78 Handicap (2000m)<\/p>\n
This is impossible, and the market reflects that. Prince Eric (3) finally got the monkey off the back at Ballarat last start and might be able to go on with the job after that confidence-booster.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: No clue. Choose your own adventure.<\/p>\n
R6 \u2013 David Bourke Memorial (1600m)<\/p>\n
Madiyya (12) was given little to no hope on resumption but her late work was good and she’ll enjoy the distance rise here. She gets a senior jockey and was an utterly dominant winner when second-up last campaign. The worry is the wide gate and the fact she’s probably going to have to pass them all.<\/p>\n
Kengero (10) was going well until last start when beating just two home in the Werribee Cup (1600m). Littlefield has removed all the gear and his previous form entitles him to another chance.<\/p>\n
Waimarie (2) was a good winner on Ballarat Cup day, beating Stylish who is a smart customer on her day.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Madiyya (12) can bounce back.<\/p>\n
R7 \u2013 Listed Pakenham Cup (2500m)<\/p>\n
Skippers Canyon (16) has the ability but his barrier manners are a concern. He missed it by about 5L last start before charging when it was all over. The Stokes swooper was a huge winner first-up when ridden by Neindorf, who jumps back on here after an apprentice rode last time.<\/p>\n
Black Run (11) is flying at the moment, winning three on the bounce \u2013 the last two over 2400m. He drops from 60kg down to just 54kg and maps okay.<\/p>\n
Alenquer (2) is finally starting to show something in Australia after arriving with a fair boom on him. He was competitive in the Group 2 Sandown Classic (2400m) last start and should be at peak fitness now after a really long break.<\/p>\n
Etna Rosso (3) is going well but barrier 18 is ugly.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Skippers Canyon (16) is the horse to beat \u2026 if he jumps with them.<\/p>\n
R8 \u2013 $1m Supernova (1400m)<\/p>\n
Private Eye (3) is really well-weighted under the conditions of the race. He’s almost earned $13m and is a genuine Group 1 galloper, carrying the same or similar weight to horses that simply wouldn’t run a drum in elite company. He loses his good mate Nash Rawiller but Williams should give him a good steer from barrier five.<\/p>\n
Pinstriped (2) is not the horse he used to be but finishing 2L off Evaporate in the G1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m) last start is good enough form to be getting into the minor money here.<\/p>\n
Hughes (10) could spice up exotics at monster odds. He wasn’t really given any sort of chance from barrier 11 last start but can be closer in the run from the inside gate.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Private Eye (3) looks really hard to beat. BEST BET<\/p>\n
R9 \u2013 VOBIS Gold Bullion (1400m)<\/p>\n
Persian Spirit (7) is airborne. He’s racing in career-best form and was incredibly unlucky not to make it back-to-back 1400m wins last start when sprouting wings late to just miss. His win at Flemington two-back was utterly outrageous and he’s yet to miss a place from five goes over this trip.<\/p>\n
Ndola (10) was smoked by Persian Spirit last start but there is a significant swing in the weights here. He drops from 59.5kg down to just 54kg, while PS goes up 1.5kg from that Flemington clash.<\/p>\n
Enxuto (6) was hugely disappointing at Flemington two-back but bounced back nicely with a 2nd in the Cranbourne Cup last start. A repeat of that performance will see him figure in the finish.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Persian Spirit (7) for the win.<\/p>\n
R10 \u2013 BM84 Handicap (1200m)<\/p>\n
Big Swinger (1) looks hard to beat coming back to BM84 grade off a couple of runs in Listed company. He has 62.5kg, which is obviously a decent leveller, but there are a couple of really important gear changes for him here \u2013 blinkers first time and tongue tie first time.<\/p>\n
Recon (17) has won 4 from 6 and has the advantage of barrier one. He’s up in grade but has more upside than most of these.<\/p>\n
Hearcomesthestar (5) did nothing down the straight on resumption but exploded back around a bend last start, charging home from a long way back to score at Cranbourne. He’s a winner here and has drawn well in barrier four.<\/p>\n
VERDICT: Big Swinger (1) for the win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pakenham takes centre stage in Victoria on Saturday, with their Cup day meeting which also includes the $1m…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":179618,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[111,139,69,213],"class_list":{"0":"post-179617","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sports","8":"tag-new-zealand","9":"tag-newzealand","10":"tag-nz","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/179618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}