{"id":187642,"date":"2025-12-17T04:29:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T04:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/187642\/"},"modified":"2025-12-17T04:29:09","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T04:29:09","slug":"asb-drops-new-zealand-milk-price-forecast-to-9-20-kgms-after-another-weak-global-dairy-trade-auction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/187642\/","title":{"rendered":"ASB drops New Zealand milk price forecast to $9.20\/kgMS after another weak Global Dairy Trade auction"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anhydrous milk fat prices were down another 5.2% after falling 9.8% at the last sale.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe pace and magnitude of the price declines across all products over December has been greater than our already pessimistic forecasts that we published in November,\u201d ASB said.<\/p>\n

Prices worldwide are being driven lower by strong milk production<\/a> in most of the main dairy-producing countries.<\/p>\n

Volumes sold on the platform this week were up 6% compared with this time a year ago, the bank noted.<\/p>\n

The overall Global Dairy Trade auction (GDT) price index is now 12.6% below a year ago and below its 10-year average, with milk powder prices driving the longer-term weakness.<\/p>\n

Whole milk powder prices are around 3% below the 10-year average, while skim milk prices are 8% below the 10-year average.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe lower NZ dollar has provided some help, but almost all the hedging for the current season should be in place in our opinion,\u201d ASB said.<\/p>\n

Futures markets, alongside recent GDT events, are pointing to ongoing dairy price weakness, with product prices showing no clear signs of a lift over the summer months.<\/p>\n

Milk price futures for the current season point to a $9.10\/kgMS price.<\/p>\n

NZX Dairy said this morning\u2019s sale delivered a more bearish outcome than expected.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis ninth consecutive decline reflects persistent supply-side pressure in global dairy markets, as milk availability continues to run high across several key producing regions,\u201d Cristina Alvarado, NZX Dairy\u2019s head of insights, said in a report.<\/p>\n

\u201cStrong milk production in the United States and Europe, alongside continued output from Argentina, has maintained ample exportable supply,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition, China reported a second consecutive month of year-on-year growth in milk production in its latest data release, with October milk production up 2.1%, further reinforcing the perception of plentiful global supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

Overall, the auction highlighted that ongoing strength in global milk production continues to weigh on prices, with buyers showing \u201climited urgency in an environment of sustained supply abundance\u201d.<\/p>\n

This morning\u2019s GDT auction was the last for 2025.<\/p>\n

Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n

Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our\u00a0Business newsletter<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Anhydrous milk fat prices were down another 5.2% after falling 9.8% at the last sale. \u201cThe pace and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":187643,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[117973,117972,74,9526,25286,1978,1643,7123,7224,28796,5616,1437,117974,2513,19332,117975,117,111,43,139,69,3333,12064,6926,61,584,27037,80],"class_list":["post-187642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-117973","tag-920kgms","tag-after","tag-another","tag-asb","tag-auction","tag-bank","tag-current","tag-dairy","tag-drops","tag-forecast","tag-global","tag-kilo","tag-lower","tag-milk","tag-milksolids","tag-new","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-price","tag-prompted","tag-season","tag-to","tag-trade","tag-weak","tag-zealand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=187642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/187643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=187642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=187642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=187642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}