{"id":18765,"date":"2025-09-12T21:24:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/18765\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T21:24:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:24:15","slug":"whats-eating-ebos-fonterras-lazy-1b-stock-takes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/18765\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s eating Ebos? Fonterra\u2019s lazy $1b &#8211; Stock Takes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">However, its 2026 guidance implied just 5% organic ebitda growth because of higher costs and softness in discretionary pet products, Morningstar said in its report on the result.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Analysts have put the stock\u2019s weakness down to post-result earnings downgrades.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">The  past few months have been eventful for dual-listed Ebos, which now has most of its business in Australia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">In June last year, the company lost a lucrative contract to supply the Chemist Warehouse in Australia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">In February, Ebos announced that long-serving John Cullity would retire as CEO and be replaced by Adam Hall, who has a background in mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A), effective from July 1.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">The company undertook a A$200m ($217m) placement in April and A$50m retail offer to fund the acquisitions of SVS Veterinary Supplies and the remaining 10% stake in Transmedic, a medical equipment supplier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">In late May 28, Sybos Holdings &#8211; representing the Zuellig family interests &#8211; sold 27 million shares (13.2%) in Ebos at $35.50 a share in a block trade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Sybos also entered a 90-day escrow period for its remaining 4.9%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Shane Solly, portfolio manager at Harbour Asset Management, said some of Ebos\u2019 weakness could be put down to the number of new shareholders added to the register after the Sybos sale and capital raise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">He said there may have been a few who were unused to the idea that Ebos has had its ups and downs over the  past three decades.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIt\u2019s a business that does grow through acquisition and has periods of going sideways,\u201d Solly said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cUnfortunately, this is a period of going sideways.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">He said the company\u2019s communications going into the result  were poor, and there were expectations that Australian pharmaceutical activity would have been better than proved to be the case.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThere was an element of new investors who were quite widely disappointed by a result that was not what they expected.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Ebos in recent years had delivered consistent growth, but not this time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIf you combine that disappointing earnings outcome with a change in management, it looks like the new management team has been given a bit of a hospital pass.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI\u2019m not saying anything negative about the previous management team. It\u2019s just that\u2019s a tougher run for this current team.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Ebos has been adding businesses for decades, and made a good call getting into pet care about five years back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cOver that time, it\u2019s been a great wealth generator and the pieces are still there,\u201d Solly said.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Ebos Group is one of the largest suppliers of international healthcare brands in the Australasian region.\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Ebos Group is one of the largest suppliers of international healthcare brands in the Australasian region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">The stock had run hard, entered a correction, but was now back to trading at long run average valuation multiples.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIt\u2019s had a reset of earnings and it\u2019s had a reset in evaluation, so it\u2019s a bit of a double negative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cEarnings have come back to numbers that are potentially more reasonable &#8211; we will only find out in time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cOver the last 10 years, the price to earnings multiple average for Ebos has been 21 times for prospective earnings, and it is currently at 19.4 times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIt means that the market still wants to back the business, but it doesn\u2019t want to back it as much as it was &#8211; it had gotten stretched.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">The good news for Ebos is that September 22 will see the stock included in the influential S&amp;P\/ASX200 Index.<\/p>\n<p>Fonterra: What to do with a lazy $1b?<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Assuming everything goes to plan with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/fonterra-agrees-to-sell-consumer-arm-to-french-company-lactalis-for-38b\/YVGIVQAI3VFYNJTEGLQRQYYVHU\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/fonterra-agrees-to-sell-consumer-arm-to-french-company-lactalis-for-38b\/YVGIVQAI3VFYNJTEGLQRQYYVHU\/\">sale of its consumer business to Lactalis<\/a>, Fonterra looks  set to receive $4.22 billion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">The co-op is targeting a  tax-free capital return to shareholders of  $2 per share &#8211; equating to $3.2b &#8211; following completion of the sale.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">That still leaves Fonterra with $1b in the bank, so how will that be spent?<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cHow Fonterra allocates the remaining amount will be guided by our resource allocation framework, which allocates funds to debt, investment to support our strategy and distributions to shareholders and unit holders,\u201d the co-op said in response to a question from the Herald.<\/p>\n<p>Freightways patience<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Freightways (FRW) has been one of the most acquisitive companies on the NZX over the past 20 years, yet its acquisition strategy has only recently started to add meaningful value as it has pursued larger deals within adjacent growth sectors, Forsyth Barr says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIts willingness to take on more risk &#8211; and greater reward &#8211; a competency that investors respect (and increasingly desire), is now being valued by the market via a premium rating,\u201c the broker said in a note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">FRW trades at a 10% one-year forward price earnings premium to the NZX50 market median.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWe retain a neutral rating but recognise the attraction of value-add potential from future M&amp;A.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">FRW has acquired around 50 companies over the past 20 years in  Australia and New Zealand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe majority (about 40) have been within its Information Management (IM) division, where \u2014 with the benefit of hindsight \u2014 strategic questions can rightly be raised,\u201c Forsyth Barr said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cYet total capital allocation is heavily weighted to Express Package (EP), given its two largest deals in recent years: domestic temperature-controlled player Big Chill in 2020, and Australian oversized parcel player Allied Express in 2022.\u2033<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Its core M&amp;A focus is now on larger deals in the Australian EP sector. <\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">FRW has exhibited a very disciplined approach to M&amp;A historically. <\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIts pipeline of potential opportunities is long (we suspect it includes parts of TGE, Hunter Express, ACN Delivers, Kings, and Capital Transport), according to management, but deals are usually subject to a willing buyer and a willing seller.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Potential M&amp;A can also include scope for divestments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWhether FRW is buying or selling, investors may need to continue to be patient,\u201d Forsyth Barr said.<\/p>\n<p>Upperton bows out<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">New Talisman Gold Mines, which is in the throes of raising capital, announced that its chairman John Upperton would be stepping down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI was elected to the NTL Board to instigate change in governance and bring Talisman into production,\u201d said Upperton, who joined the board after a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/companies\/banking-finance\/former-new-talisman-gold-mines-ceo-matthew-hill-admits-false-statements-settles-case-with-fma\/X4PMOS7RHFEQPE4LH2ANLWTHSM\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/companies\/banking-finance\/former-new-talisman-gold-mines-ceo-matthew-hill-admits-false-statements-settles-case-with-fma\/X4PMOS7RHFEQPE4LH2ANLWTHSM\/\">governance and management<\/a> tussle in 2021.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWith these objectives now met, it is appropriate for me to consider stepping away to pursue wider interests in semi-retirement and take the chance to address some recurrent health issues.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Upperton said he would work with the board to ensure a smooth transition \u201cwhen the time is right\u201d. There was no timeframe for the changeover.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI\u2019m also pleased to say I\u2019m continuing to put my money where my mouth is by participating in this placement round,\u201d Upperton said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"BykrjImGEgsVna\" style=\"display:none\">Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"However, its 2026 guidance implied just 5% organic ebitda growth because of higher costs and softness in discretionary&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18766,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[20262,4765,138,15293,5818,13981,15980,17766,71,305,2959,685,20261,3234,111,139,69,5352,12229,180,20263,7811,781,1120,13605,14605],"class_list":["post-18765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-1b","tag-annual","tag-business","tag-continued","tag-eating","tag-ebos","tag-fallen","tag-fonterras","tag-from","tag-have","tag-high","tag-last","tag-lazy","tag-months","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-reporting","tag-result","tag-shares","tag-sharply","tag-since","tag-stock","tag-takes","tag-weaken","tag-whats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}