{"id":18810,"date":"2025-09-12T21:53:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/18810\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T21:53:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:53:14","slug":"cocoa-prices-fall-as-the-dollar-strengthens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/18810\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Fall as the Dollar Strengthens"},"content":{"rendered":"

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25<\/a>) on Friday closed down -108 (-1.43%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25<\/a>) closed down -90 (-1.73%).<\/p>\n

Cocoa prices settled lower on Friday after a stronger dollar (DXY00<\/a>) prompted long liquidation in cocoa futures. \u00a0Cocoa prices had climbed to 1-week highs on Thursday due to weather concerns in West Africa. \u00a0Heavy rain in the Ivory Coast has kept farmers out of cocoa fields and reduced the movement of cocoa from plantations to ports. \u00a0Also, dryness in Ghana and Nigeria has damaged some crops, as cocoa pods have withered from a lack of precipitation.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tighter cocoa inventories are also supportive for prices as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags on Friday.<\/p>\n

The slowdown in the pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast is bullish for cocoa prices. \u00a0Monday’s government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.81 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to September 7, up +5.8% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.<\/p>\n

Cocoa prices fell to 1.5-month lows on Tuesday on expectations of growing supplies amid weakening demand. \u00a0Cocoa prices have been under pressure over the past four weeks amid fears that high cocoa prices and tariffs could dampen chocolate demand. \u00a0Chocolate maker Lindt & Spr\u00fcngli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year in July due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales. \u00a0Additionally, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance for a second time in three months in July, citing persistently high cocoa prices. \u00a0The company projects a decline in full-year sales volume and reported a -9.5% drop in its sales volume for the March-May period, the largest quarterly decline in a decade. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Also weighing on cocoa prices is optimism about this year’s cocoa crop harvest in West Africa. \u00a0Chocolate maker Mondelez said last Thursday that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s crop.<\/p>\n

Cocoa prices previously rallied to two-month highs last month, on concerns that cold and dry weather across West Africa’s cocoa-producing regions is slowing down plant development in the Ivory Coast and proliferating black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria. \u00a0According to the Commodity Weather Group, the past 60 days for West Africa cocoa were the driest on record since 1979. \u00a0The lack of rain could impact the retention of cocoa pods on trees before the main crop harvest that starts in October.<\/p>\n

Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September, are supportive of prices. \u00a0According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. \u00a0The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. \u00a0The average estimate for this year’s Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year’s 440,000 MT.<\/p>\n

Another supportive factor for cocoa is the smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects Nigeria’s 2025\/26 cocoa production will fall -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0In related news, Nigeria’s Jun cocoa exports rose +0.9% y\/y to 14,597 MT.<\/p>\n

Weakness in global cocoa demand has been a bearish factor for cocoa prices. \u00a0The European Cocoa Association reported on July 17 that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell by -7.2% y\/y to 331,762 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -5% y\/y. \u00a0Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings fell -16.3% y\/y to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in 8 years. \u00a0North American Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.8% y\/y to 101,865 MT, which was a smaller decline than the declines seen in Asia and Europe.<\/p>\n

Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. \u00a0On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025\/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y\/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024\/25. \u00a0Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0<\/p>\n

On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0Looking ahead to 2024\/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Friday closed down -108 (-1.43%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18811,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[138,220,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-18810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18810"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18810\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18811"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}