{"id":19794,"date":"2025-09-13T09:55:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T09:55:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/19794\/"},"modified":"2025-09-13T09:55:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T09:55:07","slug":"the-rise-of-unofficial-us-economic-reports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/19794\/","title":{"rendered":"the rise of unofficial US economic reports"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__content-sign-up-topic-description o3-type-body-base\">Your guide to what Trump\u2019s second term means for Washington, business and the world<\/p>\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s attack on US economic institutions and rising concern over the quality of official data are propelling unofficial statistics into an evermore prominent role on Wall Street. <\/p>\n<p>The US president has in recent weeks railed against the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a>, which produces critical reports on inflation and the labour market. His attacks have come as the BLS has struggled with funding and staffing cuts that have made its data collection more challenging. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve always sort of taken for granted that we didn\u2019t have to worry about the confidence of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/stream\/6fc5dfca-7f87-4383-aa76-167634e27f4c\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">government<\/a> data because it set the standard for neutrality and reliability,\u201d said Derek Tang, economist at LHMeyer. \u201cThat credibility is being impugned, whether fairly or not, right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Last month, following a bleak jobs report, the president sacked BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated loyalist EJ Antoni to replace her.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s administration escalated its assault against the BLS on Tuesday after it revised down its estimates of payroll employment in the year to March 2025 by more than 900,000 jobs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the revision underlined the need for \u201ctruthful and honest data\u201d and added that \u201cthe BLS is broken\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday the labour department\u2019s Office of Inspector General announced it was launching a probe into \u201cchallenges that [BLS] encounters collecting and reporting closely watched economic data\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM, said the controversy surrounding the BLS would \u201cincrease demand for private label data, which will over time create a widening gap between the haves and the have-nots\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net\/production\/bf5b9eb2-78bc-4873-8097-661f9351defc.jpg\" alt=\"Brian Moynihan gestures with both hands while speaking during a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum.\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"2290\" height=\"1526\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan  \u00a9 Hollie Adams\/Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America, last month said government data that relied on surveys \u201cjust [isn\u2019t] as effective anymore\u201d. He noted that his vast bank can \u201cwatch what consumers really do. We watch what businesses really do.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed Moynihan in a television interview this week. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe get data like you wouldn\u2019t believe,\u201d Dimon said. <\/p>\n<p>He added: \u201cThe government data is important. Our own data is important. We get data from non-government sources. And you can look at delinquency data, worldwide data, trade data. We get all of that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Long-standing private reports have recently risen in prominence, including a labour market report collated by payrolls processor ADP. Google searches for the ADP Employment Report have recently trebled. <\/p>\n<p>New rivals have appeared on the market, such as Revelio Labs, which earlier this year launched its own monthly labour market statistics, marketed as a \u201cmore timely and granular\u201d complement to BLS\u2019s jobs data.<\/p>\n<p>Wall Street research now also cites a variety of data sources, such as restaurant and hotel bookings and spending on credit and debit cards. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am encouraged by the explosion in data produced by the private sector over the past decade or so that can greatly enhance our understanding of the economy,\u201d former Fed governor Adriana Kugler said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/kugler20240716a.htm#fn4\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">last year<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The host of private data sets published by research firms, universities and industry groups can often outdo public sector alternatives on speed and detail. Thomas Simons, Jefferies\u2019 chief US economist, said it helped to form a \u201cmosaic view\u201d of the market.<\/p>\n<p>Free market advocates argue a shift to private figures would help improve trust in data, as it is harder for the government to exert influence over them. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think the private sector is more insulated,\u201d said Adam Michel at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank. \u201cTrump explicitly criticised some of the Goldman Sachs economic forecasts and said their head economist should be fired. And that person still has their job \u2014 unlike the head of the BLS.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But experts warn that while this may allow businesses to take quicker decisions, the reliability of such figures depends on them being backed up by \u201cgold standard\u201d official numbers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPrivate sector data might become increasingly important to look at if there are more gaps or if official statistics degrade or become less trustworthy,\u201d said Jed Kolko at the Peterson Institute. <\/p>\n<p class=\"n-content-recommended__title o3-type-body-highlight\">Recommended<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/1c919f11-2975-47be-ba1b-f6e2fa33fedf\" data-trackable=\"image-link\" data-trackable-context-story-link=\"image-link\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-hidden=\"true\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"o-teaser__image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net.jpeg\" alt=\"Erika McEntarfer\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut we should not consider that a victory for private data. If that happens, if official statistics degrade, private sector data will get worse too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A wholesale move away from public statistics was unlikely in the near term, analysts said, not least because legislation requires the government to index certain targets to official data. And there are other measures that only government agencies are in a position to properly track. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cReliable or not, there are some data that private industry simply can\u2019t capture,\u201d said Inflation Insights economist Omair Sharif. In these areas, which include some inflation metrics, he said \u201cno serious economist is going to use a different measure\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what Trump\u2019s second term means for Washington,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19795,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-19794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19794\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}