\u201cIt\u2019s quite heartening. The vision is in the plan. Bringing the vision to life is the minister and the department\u2019s job, which appears to be underway.\u201d<\/p>\n
The real test will be what the place looks like in 20 years, and the present work is shaping that. <\/p>\n
By then, one of the questions about what to fund in the longer term will be answered: how to manage the risk of a magnitude-8 earthquake unzipping the Alpine Fault.<\/p>\n
New Zealand’s big-risk Alpine Fault has a 75% chance of causing a major quake \u2013 most likely a powerful magnitude-8 event \u2013 within the next 50 years.<\/p>\n
This could trigger a landslide into the fiord, sending a tsunami to swallow anyone along or near the shoreline, from the tourist boat marina in Freshwater Basin to the staff quarters near Deepwater Basin. <\/p>\n
If this occurred at the busiest time of day for boat tours, it could put more than 3500 lives at risk.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe thing that worries me is people\u2019s safety \u2013 the workforce and the visitors,\u201d said Goddard, who worked for 27 years in the mining industry. <\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe it\u2019s the miner in me, but sending them into a place where I can\u2019t be confident, if there\u2019s a 75% chance of a rupture in the next 50 years \u2013 that doesn\u2019t feel right.<\/p>\n
\u201cFinishing the research and working out whether this is a real problem and what we need to do to address that problem \u2013 that would be top of my list.\u201d<\/p>\n
Controversial concepts scrapped<\/p>\n
Congestion and environmental degradation are not new issues for Milford Sound tourism. They have been around for more than four decades<\/a>.<\/p>\n Visitor numbers doubled between 2012 and 2019, with annual numbers now exceeding 1 million, including some 220,000 who arrive by cruise ship. <\/p>\n The MOP was established in 2017, a collaboration between key stakeholders including local government, Ng\u0101i Tahu, and several government departments, such as conservation, transport, and Tourism NZ.<\/p>\n Its task was to investigate future-proofing one of New Zealand\u2019s most iconic tourism assets, which was becoming crowded, rushed, noisy and unsafe<\/a>.<\/p>\n The 2024 business case ditched some of the more controversial recommendations in the MOP\u2019s 2021 masterplan, which, unsurprisingly, had rubbed some local businesses the wrong way<\/a>.<\/p>\n These included a ban on cruise ships, phasing out fixed-wing aircraft, and preventing most private vehicle access, with most visitors using a park-and-ride bus system from Te Anau.<\/p>\n Instead, the business case recommended strategies to minimise car congestion, including encouraging the use of tourism operators.<\/p>\n It also put forward facility upgrades costing $592m, self-funded from a $75-$100 access fee for foreigners that would also provide $114m in the first 10 years for conservation.<\/p>\n A much-smaller funding pot<\/p>\n The Government response, a year later, opted for no restrictions on driving to Milford Sound, instead ordering \u201cfurther work\u201d, according to the Cabinet paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n It had already started consulting on recommended legislative changes, including enabling charging for access and improving the concessions process.<\/p>\n But expectations for the access fee are only between $20 and $40. This is in part due to concerns over the cumulative impact of multiple charges: parking and access fees<\/a> for several destinations, such as Milford Sound and Aoraki National Park, on top of a $100 International Visitor Levy (up from $35)<\/a>.<\/p>\n A much-lower fee, feeding a much-smaller fund for Milford Sound upgrades, has sown some doubts about the level of infrastructure improvements in the coming years.<\/p>\n Goddard said the business case report would be useful well into the future, should the Government of the day wish to revisit any of the issues.<\/p>\n The park-and-ride bus system wasn\u2019t necessarily dead, for example.<\/p>\n \u201cMinisters haven\u2019t prioritised it this time around. That doesn\u2019t mean they never will,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cAlready, half the visitors coming to New Zealand for a holiday end up in Piopiotahi some time in their journey. As these new investments turn up, you\u2019re going to see a natural increase of interest in going to Piopiotahi.<\/p>\n \u201cThe work is there for them to stand on, whenever they want to revisit that.\u201d<\/p>\n Nor was the access fee rate chiselled into concrete.<\/p>\n \u201cWhether it\u2019s $20 at the start or $40 or $60 later on, having that funding can quickly build up, allowing you to invest. Just imagine what predator-free Fiordland would look like \u2013 to have that cacophony of birdsong when you go into Piopiotahi.\u201d<\/p>\n Slowing down and spreading out<\/p>\n One of the main issues is the \u201crace to the boat\u201d mindset: visitors driving from Te Anau or, more popularly, Queenstown all the way to the sounds for a boat trip and then driving all the way back.<\/p>\n This clogs SH94 mainly at two points: the carpark at Freshwater Basin and Homer Tunnel, where traffic flows one way at a time.<\/p>\n An integral part of the MOP plan was providing visitors more reasons to stop along the way, thereby slowing their journey and spreading them more evenly along the Milford Road corridor.<\/p>\n The pleasant surprise for Goddard was that the Government has made a start on facility upgrades. A total of $15.2m has been committed for immediate works, which include:<\/p>\n $7m for a capital works programme, with upgrades to facilities at Key Summit Track, The Chasm and Marian Falls Track, and replacing the boat ramp in Deepwater Basin. $2.8m for a new loop walking track and viewing area in Gertrude Valley (which has fewer safety hazards than the steep hike to Gertrude Saddle);$1.55m for improvements to the Gertrude carpark and the amenities at Lake Marian, which feeds Marian Creek, where a girl tragically drowned in 2024<\/a>;$1m for cultural storytelling, including a new gateway pou whenua signalling entry into the national park;$750,000 for upgrades to Deepwater Basin, including a new toilet block;$300,000 for \u201cvisitor behaviour change\u201d, that is, encouraging them to slow down. <\/p>\n Department of Conservation (DoC) documents released to the Herald reveal a list of proposals that have been assessed for future investment in the longer term.<\/p>\n These include a cycleway, a new backcountry hut in the Countess Range, developments at Lake Gunn and Monkey Creek, and a \u201cLone Tree new walk\u201d.<\/p>\n One of the highest-scoring proposals is a walkway and lookout on a spur of Barren Peak, across from Mitre Peak and above the fiord.<\/p>\n This would not only dilute the concentration of tourists waiting for their boat cruise, but would be a refuge point \u2013 50-60m above sea level \u2013 from an incoming tsunami.<\/p>\n \u2018Over 3500 fatalities\u2019<\/p>\n Goddard said the great unknown was how long people would have to \u201crun up to the viewing platform and ride out the tsunami there\u201d.<\/p>\n The MOP board strongly supported the Barren Peak proposal, although much uncertainty remained about what would unfold in the event of an Alpine Fault rupture.<\/p>\n \u201cWhether it happens today or in 50 years, the impact on the fiord is not well understood,\u201d Goddard said.<\/p>\n The MOP business case report called it potentially \u201ccatastrophic\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fatalities following a landslide-induced tsunami could be over 3500 if it happened on a busy summer day and given the current infrastructure,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n \u201dThere is a 16% chance of an event of that kind happening over 50 years.”<\/p>\nCruise ships bring an estimated 220,000 visitors to Piopiotahi\/Milford Sound annually. A proposal to ban them has been dropped, along with phasing out fixed-wing aircraft. Photo \/ Celebrity Cruises<\/p>\n
Mitre Peak, Milford Sound’s most recognisable mountain, greets cruise passengers on a chilly July afternoon. Photo \/ Thomas Bywater<\/p>\n
An overview of attractions in the MOP business case plan. More attractions along the way would spread the crowds in the Milford Road corridor. Image \/Supllied<\/p>\n
Chris Goddard was director of the Milford Opportunities Porject when it delivered its business case report in mid-2024. Photo \/ Marjorie Cook<\/p>\n