Checklist on our 25 hot takes for \u201825<\/p>\n
At least one major media platform will close or be swallowed up by another industry player. VERDICT: CORRECT. Sky TV\u2019s acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery\u2019s Three (TV3) in a $1 debt-free deal was one of the biggest media stories of the year.Cost-cutting and other tight cost controls will continue to be the norm until the economy bounces back in the latter half of 2025. CORRECT. There were layoffs at NZME earlier in the year, and tight cost controls at all media companies throughout. By the end of the year, NZME had upgraded its operating EBITDA guidance; Sky TV\u2019s share price was reaching record five-year highs, touching $3.60.A very high-profile TV broadcaster will leave their position. CORRECT. Simon Dallow finished up as TVNZ 6pm newsreader in late November, after almost two decades in the hot seat. Now that it has organised itself into two separate businesses, Stuff will sell its masthead publishing division – including\u00a0The Press\u00a0and\u00a0The Post\u00a0newspapers and associated digital subscription business. NZME tops a shortlist of potential buyers. INCORRECT\/NOT YET. Stuff has been open to offers, NZME has been open to investment and there were talks earlier in the year. We\u2019ll push this one out to 2026.That leaves Stuff as a digital-only business – allowing a business like Trade Me to partner up or buy it, partly to offset the rise and rise of NZME\u2019s OneRoof property portal. CORRECT. Trade Me announced in June that it was acquiring 50% of Stuff Digital.An interesting new shareholder will emerge for NZME. CORRECT. Businessman Jim Grenon has slowly and steadily built his holdings in NZME to just under 18.5% – along the way, he led a push for major changes at board level, and he became a director himself.The future business shape of Warner Bros Discovery and MediaWorks remains clouded, especially with global owners for whom New Zealand might not be a top priority. CORRECT ON BOTH. Warner Bros Discovery\u2019s Three was sold to Sky, and MediaWorks was split into two, with its outdoor advertising business renamed QMS. Both it and the radio arm are on the block.Sky TV will secure the All Blacks\u2019 broadcasting rights and be subject to a takeover, with British-based DAZN a possible buyer. TVNZ, NZME or Stuff will scoop up other rights for rugby matches not covered by the Sky deal. HALF CORRECT. Sky won the rights and TVNZ won secondary rights (including live NPC matches), but Sky remains publicly listed – for now.NZME and Stuff will double down on video, causing more revenue headaches for traditional broadcasters. CORRECT. NZME launched Herald NOW; Stuff\u2019s video charge continues to be led by its production of the ThreeNews bulletin for Sky TV\/Three. The Government will show little urgency to stand up to global tech giants, keeping the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill on hold, while the Australian government powers ahead with its own laws that even the playing field. CORRECT. Sadly.AI will revolutionise media in 2025 by automating content creation, enhancing personalised recommendations and enabling synthetic media like virtual actors. It will streamline production, improve ad targeting and boost immersive AR\/VR experiences. However, challenges like deepfake misuse, misinformation and job displacement will require robust ethical regulations and safeguards. [Disclaimer: ChatGPT wrote those three sentences.] CORRECT (again, according to ChatGPT, which states its 2025 prediction was largely on target about the nature of AI\u2019s influence \u2014 automation, enhanced capabilities, and ethical challenges).RNZ will continue to insist it\u2019s the most trusted media organisation; TVNZ will continue to insist it\u2019s the most trusted media organisation. A raft of media trust surveys will throw up all sorts of different results. Can you trust the media trust surveys? CORRECT. The different methodologies of myriad trust surveys are leading to some varied results for individual media brands. Auckland Transport will continue to dither on outdoor advertising contracts \u2013 no good for ratepayers or the outdoor media companies that it has mucked around for almost two years. CORRECT. But like a slow bus in Auckland rush-hour traffic, we got there eventually. Advertising agencies \u2013 especially the big ones that fall under the Omnicom and IPG umbrellas \u2013 will be subject to cost-cutting in New Zealand. CORRECT. The merger was officially sealed in late 2025. We\u2019re awaiting to hear the specific extent of cutbacks, but already the DDB and FCB agencies are for the scrapheap. In New Zealand, the two agencies will now be known as McCann.The Spinoff will have early success with reader donations. Longer term, donation models will continue to be stressed. Expect more media companies to introduce hard paywalls; CORRECT on the first points, INCORRECT on the last (for now).The Government will merge NZ on Air and the Film Commission; INCORRECT. Too much hard work for a Government which has other priorities.A media chief executive will leave their role; INCORRECT in terms of the \u2018big six\u2019 media companies; CORRECT in terms of the broader industry (farewell, for example, to Nick Vile, of Oohmedia and Nigel Douglas of OMD).Newstalk ZB cements its spot as the number one radio station;\u00a0Simon Barnett\u00a0helps haul More FM from number five to number three by the end of the year. CORRECT on ZB, PARTLY CORRECT on More (it\u2019s third in the commercial ratings but fourth when you take into account publicly owned RNZ).Facebook, devoid of any fact-checking principles or processes, becomes an even bigger hellhole, with corporates deserting the platform en masse in fear of \u2018brand safety\u2019; CORRECT on the hellhole, INCORRECT on the corporates.RNZ solidifies its position as the third biggest news website in New Zealand behind Stuff and the NZ Herald, but its traditional radio ratings continue to languish; CORRECT on the website, but the radio ratings \u2013 after a poor first survey \u2013 have enjoyed an uptick in the next two, so INCORRECT on those.Every media, PR, marketing and advertising firm will trumpet themselves as the greatest in the world amid a swag of award ceremonies. The Voyager Awards will cut back its number of categories, in light of there not being enough journalists left to enter. CORRECT on the first prediction, INCORRECT on the second.The performances of TVNZ and RNZ will come under even closer scrutiny from central Government \u2013 some in the coalition will question the need to own a television network that does not return a dividend. CORRECT (although TVNZ did return a dividend this year, for the first time in three years);An outdoor company will be acquired by another media company. CORRECT. Lumo acquired GloBox.Prime Minister\u00a0Christopher Luxon\u00a0will skip\u00a0Q&A\u00a0\u2013 not a good look;\u00a0Chris Hipkins\u00a0will at least front\u00a0Q&A\u00a0but it also won\u2019t be a good look. CORRECT on Luxon; You be the judge on Hipkins.About 20% of these predictions will be correct. INCORRECT! A 76% success rate (give or take) \u2013 better than Scott Robertson\u2019s All Black coaching record (at this stage).Christopher Luxon did not front up to Jack Tame on TVNZ’s Q+A in 2025. Photo \/ TVNZ<\/p>\n
NZX-listed Sky TV will be subject to a takeover, with a private equity bid. Although Sky\u2019s share price hit peaks of $3.60 this year \u2013 a five-year high \u2013 analysts and commentators believe the company is still undervalued and prime for acquisition.TVNZ will be primed for sale – possibly alongside (or with) Whakaata M\u0101ori (M\u0101ori Television). The National Party will campaign at the 2026 general election on the partial or full sale of Government assets, with the publicly owned but commercially funded TVNZ specifically on the list.Shareholder and director Jim Grenon will consider a full takeover bid for NZME, and Trade Me will be thinking the same about Stuff Digital – one of these scenarios will unfold.The QMS outdoor advertising company will be sold \u2013 likely to Australia\u2019s Nine – while its sister MediaWorks radio stations (including The Breeze, The Rock and More FM) will be sold to an Australian radio operator.Businessman Troy Bowker becomes a major thorn in the side of Stuff in 2026, following his acquisition in 2025 of the property that houses the publishing company\u2019s Wellington print plant. Stuff has two options if it wants to renew its lease on the Petone plant \u2013 pay a much heftier rent, or face huge costs (millions) to remove its plant equipment and restore the building to a fit state for a future tenant.Only once\/if that spicy meatball is sorted, or there is legal comfort, NZME and Stuff will come to an agreement over the acquisition of Stuff Masthead Publishing.RNZ will come under extra, intense scrutiny from Treasury and the Government over its operational performance and the way it is managing its taxpayer-funded budget.With their terms up (and after years of loyal service), it is anticipated that RNZ chair Jim Mather and directors Jane Wrightson and Irene Gardiner will not be renewed for new stints on the RNZ board \u2013 leading to a major redirection for the public broadcaster. Director Brent Impey will become chair; expect executive changes by the end of 2026.Both Newstalk ZB and RNZ will enjoy ratings boosts in the lead-up to a hotly contested 2026 general election; Mike Hosking will outpace John Campbell in the breakfast radio ratings.Magazine publisher Are Media (Listener, Woman\u2019s Weekly, Woman\u2019s Day) will remain under the ownership of Mercury Capital, despite attempts at a sale.A new, distinctly Kiwi-focused magazine will enter the New Zealand market.Independent New Zealand media and advertising agencies will showcase their own skills and seize upon the uncertainty of job losses and cost cuts at the big global holding companies to claim some of New Zealand\u2019s biggest accounts, including ANZ, Westpac and The Warehouse Group.Tina from Turners will remain NZ\u2019s favourite advertisement, and one of the most effective.Warner Bros Discovery\u2019s HBO content will leave Sky TV\/Neon mid-year, regardless of the outcome of the Netflix v Paramount battle for ownership of WBD.A top sports broadcasting name and voice will step down from their role.At least one local outdoor advertising firm will be acquired by another major media player.NBR will take legal action against IRD over the way the tax department has shared paywalled stories with staff; IRD will settle out of court, paying damages and legal fees.Stuff will drop the contract to produce the 6pm ThreeNews, unless it and Sky TV come to a bigger monetary sum for the contract, and\/or a revenue-share arrangement.NZME and Sky will confirm a deal for Ryan Bridge\u2019s Herald NOW show to screen on Three Now (and eventually TV3) \u2013 leading to a rejuvenated and much-scrutinised new ratings battle with TVNZ\u2019s Breakfast, led by a freshly installed co-host, Tova O\u2019Brien.The BSA will lose its jurisdictional legal battle with Sean Plunket\u2019s The Platform, but the case will finally force the Government into moving ahead with a proposal for a new super regulator. That will be the sole piece of media regulation in 2026.TVNZ and Sky TV will engage in a massive battle for the Rugby World Cup rights.Podcasts will play a critical role in the 2026 election campaign, but leaders of various parties will face heat for declining interviews on mainstream media platforms they deem \u2018unfriendly\u2019 (aka avoiding tough questions).Nadia Tolich (TVNZ) and Pip Keane (RNZ) will be hailed for their leadership in their new executive roles – both are destined for even bigger things.A New Zealand film will be nominated for the 2027 Oscars.An employment dispute between former Breakfast host Kamahl Santamaria and TVNZ will play out in court – and create widespread media and public interest.A top-tier marketing executive will step down from their role in the corporate world.RNZ chairman Dr Jim Mather. Photo \/ Andrew Warner<\/p>\n
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