{"id":22231,"date":"2025-09-14T17:50:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-14T17:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/22231\/"},"modified":"2025-09-14T17:50:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-14T17:50:05","slug":"the-trump-economy-now-dead-in-the-water","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/22231\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump Economy Now: \u201cDead in the water\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"


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That\u2019s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video<\/a>) (h\/t Philip Webre):<\/p>\n

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He was referring primarily to the labor market:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:\u00a0Nonfarm payroll employment as reported by CES (bold black), Preliminary benchmark revision with monthly changed \u201cwedged in\u201d over the 2024M03-25M03 period (red), estimated preliminary benchmark using midpoint of Wells Fargo estimated revision (green), and GS estimate of final benchmark revision (tan), all in 000\u2019s, s.a.\u00a0 Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, author\u2019s calculations.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Figure 1: Vacancies to Unemployed Ratio (blue line). Horizontal light blue line at 1.0 value. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/p>\n

And manufacturing employment:<\/p>\n

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Figure 3: Manufacturing employment, all employees, official (light blue), implied preliminary benchmark (bold black), QCEW seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 over 2021M03-2025M03 period (green), and ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory (red), all in 000\u2019s, s.a.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on September 13, 2025<\/a> by Menzie Chinn<\/a>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" That\u2019s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h\/t Philip Webre):…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22232,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-22231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}