Although the December month layoff data<\/a> was unusually low, it does cap the full year layoff level at just over 2 mln and the most since the pandemic, and prior to that, the most since the GFC.<\/p>\n Analysts are expecting tomorrow’s release of December non-farm payrolls to rise just +60,000, similar to the low November level.<\/p>\n In their December survey, the New York Fed reports<\/a> it showed US labour market expectations worsened (almost one in seven people expect to lose their jobs in 2026) and short term inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4% but were unchanged over the longer terms.<\/p>\n US exports rose and imports fell in the October data<\/a> released overnight. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply to -US$29.4 bln in the month, the smallest gap since June 2009. Exports rose 2.6% or +US$7.2 bln to a record $302 bln. Imports declined -3.2% to a 21-month low of $331 bln. But this is really a story about gold flows more than tariff effects. Precious metal exports rose +US$10.2 bln in the month and without those, exports would have fallen. Imports of gold fell -US$1.4 bls. Their largest monthly gaps were recorded with Mexico (-US$18 bln), Taiwan (-US$16 bln), Vietnam (-US$15 bln) and China (-US$14 bln). The trade gap with the EU narrowed sharply to -US$6.3 bln.<\/p>\n Canada also reported<\/a> trade data overnight. In October, Canada’s merchandise imports increased +3.4%, while exports were up +2.1%. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance went from a small surplus of +C$243 mln in September to a deficit of -C$583 mln in October. Basically they remain in balance on this measure. But the transition away from trade with the US is sharp. Again, these flows have a large gold component too.<\/p>\n In China, private analysts shows<\/a> that their property market slump deepened in 2025, with new-home sales shrinking -9% to levels not seen since before 2010 and falling by roughly half from their 2021 peak. Total sales value fell by nearly -13% according to this respected analysts.<\/p>\n Japanese consumer sentiment<\/a>, which has been improving since April, hesitated in December at just below the November level. Another improvement was expected, although the difference is small.<\/p>\n It was a very similar story in the EU<\/a>, with a December hesitation after a nine month string of improvements.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the survey for the ECB on consumer inflation expectations<\/a> shows them unchanged in November at 2.8%.<\/p>\n On the industrial front however, producer prices fell<\/a> -1.7% in November from a year ago, more than the -0.5% in October, but less of a deterioration than the -1.9% expected. They actually rose slightly from the prior month and by a bit more than anticipated.<\/p>\n German factory orders rose sharply in November<\/a> and by much more than expected, up +5.6% from October, up +10.5% from the same month a year ago.<\/p>\n In Australia, the trade surplus narrowed in November<\/a>\u00a0as major commodity exports fell, and capital goods imports signalled a possibility of softer business investment in the December quarter.<\/p>\n Globally, air passenger travel rose<\/a> +5.7% in November from a year ago. international travel was up +7.7%. But it was all driven by the +7.8% rise from the Asia\/Pacific region.<\/p>\n Meanwhile air cargo traffic rose<\/a> a similar +5.5% in November, also driven by the +11.1% rise in international cargoes in the Asia\/Pacific region. North American flows declined.<\/p>\n Global shipping container freight rates<\/a> rose +16% last week from the prior week to be now -35% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China to both the US and EU rose sharply. Bulk cargo rates fell -6% last week, and are now +25% higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.18%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +69 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is more positive, now by +56 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.89%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 2.09%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.65%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.46%, down -7 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n Wall Street is on hold with the S&P500 little-changed in Thursday trade. Overnight, European markets were all alos little-changed. Tokyo pulled back further, closing down -1.6% in its Thursday trade. Hong Kong fell -1.2%, but Shanghai was only down -0.1%. Singapore ended down -0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday trade with a +0.3% rise. The NZX50 ended unchanged.<\/p>\n The price of gold<\/a> will start today at US$4460\/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$2 to US$76\/oz.<\/p>\n American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$57\/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50\/bbl.<\/p>\n The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -30 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,887 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +\/- 1.2%.<\/p>\n Select chart tabs<\/p>\n US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n
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