{"id":22467,"date":"2025-09-14T20:49:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-14T20:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/22467\/"},"modified":"2025-09-14T20:49:12","modified_gmt":"2025-09-14T20:49:12","slug":"sticky-inflation-softer-jobs-macro-headwinds-stir-btc-tailwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/22467\/","title":{"rendered":"Sticky Inflation, Softer Jobs \u2014 Macro Headwinds Stir BTC Tailwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin BTC$115,872.21<\/a> is about 4% higher than it was a week ago\u2014good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy. <\/p>\n

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates<\/a> on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.<\/p>\n

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis. <\/p>\n

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures<\/a>, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated. <\/p>\n

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision<\/a> in the country’s history.<\/p>\n

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising<\/a> to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 \u2014 the highest since October 2021.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics) <\/p>\n

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word “stagflation” is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, bitcoin\u2014considered a risk asset by Wall Street\u2014continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August. <\/p>\n

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record<\/a> for the second day on the hope of a rate cut. <\/p>\n

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart? <\/p>\n

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price \u2014 often used as support in bull markets \u2014 rose to a record $109,668.<\/p>\n

\"Short<\/p>\n

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode) <\/p>\n

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag<\/p>\n

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.<\/p>\n

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025. <\/p>\n

The company\u2019s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.<\/p>\n

\"MSTR<\/p>\n

MSTR (TradingView) <\/p>\n

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares<\/a>. According to the company<\/a>, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.<\/p>\n

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?<\/p>\n

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end. <\/p>\n

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

US 10-year (TradingView) <\/p>\n

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

(TradingView) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin BTC$115,872.21 is about 4% higher than it was a week ago\u2014good news for the digital asset but…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22468,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[4236,138,1943,220,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-22467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-bitcoin","tag-business","tag-inflation","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}