Prime Minister Christopher Luxon turned over a new leaf at the end of last year when he fled the capital on a Jetstar flight \u2013 his first with the carrier. He enjoyed the experience and was impressed by the airline\u2019s punctuality, something that can\u2019t always be said for its main competitor.<\/p>\n
His break, in Waiheke and Auckland, followed a familiar pattern. Bad weather frustrated fishing plans but he still found time on the water to catch some snapper.<\/p>\n
Hipkins isn\u2019t the only one clearing away junk. Both leaders are contemplating reshuffles as they head into the new year.<\/p>\n
Luxon\u2019s is not expected next week, which begins with his State of the Nation speech in Auckland on Monday. Held at the new convention centre, a monument to the happier times of the Key-English Government, the speech is likely to focus on one of the few policy areas where voters still trust National: law and order.<\/p>\n
He\u2019ll talk up the coalition\u2019s successes and draw a none-too-subtle comparison with the Opposition. Labour has tried to neutralise law and order as an issue, but its only viable path to power runs through Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and the Greens, whose enlightened criticism of the carceral state is perhaps a little avant-garde for the Labour-National marginal voter for whom Foucault is a sound one makes when congested. <\/p>\n
Luxon will then head to Christchurch for National\u2019s caucus retreat at the Commodore Hotel, another throwback to the Key-English years. In 2011, the hotel became one of the few places outside the Beehive to host a full Cabinet meeting. Christchurch readers will know it\u2019s also a short walk from Key\u2019s alma mater (they\u2019ll also know where that is) and Luxon is expected to announce the election date there: probably November 7.<\/p>\n
A Cabinet reshuffle is expected later in the year. There\u2019s a consensus that Chris Bishop is overworked and will need to shed something, likely his associate sport portfolio \u2013 though he could lose more.<\/p>\n
National\u2019s middling performance in the 2023 election leaves Luxon with few Cabinet positions to play with. Almost everyone agrees Chris Penk should move into Cabinet, but whose place he would take remains unclear. Expected retirements early in the year could provide a solution.<\/p>\n
Hipkins\u2019 reshuffle is simpler. As Opposition leader, unencumbered by the number of MPs he can squeeze around the Cabinet table, he has more latitude. Duncan Webb\u2019s portfolios will be reallocated after his announcement he will retire at the election.<\/p>\n
Labour also holds its caucus retreat next week, choosing west Auckland as part of its effort to win back the city after its 2023 rout. No policy announcements are planned. The party\u2019s narrative-heavy, policy-light approach has worked well so far, and it has no desire to change what\u2019s so far been a winning strategy.<\/p>\n
Former National Cabinet minister Maurice Williamson attacked Chris Bishop’s intensification plan for Auckland. Photo \/ Michael Craig<\/p>\n
The political year began dramatically with a leak about a planned U-turn on an Auckland densification change<\/a>. The proposal hasn\u2019t yet gone to Cabinet, so an announcement isn\u2019t imminent but the details are agreed and it is coming.<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t a case of Bishop being overruled by the leader. <\/p>\n Despite Bishop\u2019s leadership manoeuvrings late last year, he and the Prime Minister broadly agree on knocking housing from its perch as New Zealand\u2019s most beloved asset class. They see the change not as a backdown but as tinkering with a policy that would allow zoning for up to two million additional homes in Auckland.<\/a><\/p>\n The big test is whether that two-million figure \u2013 so toxic to National\u2019s Auckland base \u2013 survives. The mix of urban, suburban and greenfields development almost certainly will change, likely to the enrichment of inner-Auckland properties. The real test of whether this is a tweak, not at all related to reflating the property market, or whether it\u2019s a gentle operational adjustment will come from how many new houses can realistically be enabled by the change.<\/p>\n Luxon and Bishop still bear the scars of Act\u2019s campaign against National over medium-density standards earlier this decade and are wary of a repeat.<\/a> <\/p>\n But giving Auckland a bespoke fix creates further problems. Councils elsewhere have already implemented Labour\u2019s intensification rules. Forcing them to unwind those changes amid RMA reform and amalgamation talks isn\u2019t going to happen, so the Government is going to need to find a way to explain why Auckland home owners, already the wealthiest in the country, get a reprieve from the nationwide property crash. <\/p>\n The answer is the change isn\u2019t going to be talked about with reference to prices at all. While wealthy central suburbs will benefit most, the change won\u2019t be sold as a green light for renewed property speculation. Luxon\u2019s critique of Key\u2013Ardern \u201csugar-rush economics\u201d still stands: house prices and immigration will not drive the recovery.<\/p>\n Yet some Auckland MPs want the Government to do just this and signal an end to the housing crash it has overseen to give buyers confidence that it\u2019s safe to get back into the market. <\/p>\n