The contrasting vibes betray the fundamentals of the race: most polling shows the coalition government with a narrow but consistent lead. Economists are predicting improvement this year, which should benefit the incumbents. And Labour\u2019s two potential coalition partners, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and the Greens, have spent the last year or so in various states of meltdown.<\/p>\n
Chris Hipkins speaking to his MPs in a dreary hotel.<\/p>\n
Labour has been an unusually quiet opposition party. Labour MPs barely put out a press release in the first few months of the term while they focused on dissecting what went wrong in their 2023 campaign \u2013 they slumped to one of their worst-ever defeats, winning just under 27% of the party vote \u2013 and rebuilding for the future.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe understand why New Zealanders didn\u2019t vote for us at the last election,\u201d Hipkins told journalists during a lunch break. \u201cWe understand they were looking for something different from us. We have refreshed ourselves. We\u2019ve re-energised ourselves. We\u2019ve changed and we are offering a very different Labour Party at this election to what we\u2019re offering last time.\u201d<\/p>\n
There is a refined focus on basic cost-of-living issues. The pull-up campaign posters are a minimalist design with just three words: jobs, health, homes. \u201cWe heard very clearly from people at the last election that they didn\u2019t think we were focused enough on the things that matter to them,\u201d Hipkins said.<\/p>\n
He drew a direct contrast between National\u2019s laissez-faire economic approach, which seeks growth through low interest rates and private investment, and Labour\u2019s preference for more government intervention. \u201cThe current government think job creation is not their job. It is their job,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
To his MPs, he emphasised the need for the party to be a mature, organised government-in-waiting. \u201cWe will also make sure that we\u2019re offering New Zealanders a real and compelling alternative, because better is possible,\u201d he said. He repeated some variation of \u201cbetter is possible\u201d three times throughout his speech \u2013 perhaps testing a campaign slogan?<\/p>\n
Hipkins also previewed the attack lines the party strategists seem to think work best against Christopher Luxon and the government. The negative emigration statistics are a favourite. \u201cLast year, we lost a record number of Kiwis simply giving up on the country and leaving looking for opportunities elsewhere that they could not find here. That is an absolute indictment of Christopher Luxon and his government.\u201d<\/p>\n
Broadly, he wants to position Labour as optimistic and National as pessimistic. \u201cIt\u2019s pretty clear that New Zealanders are looking for one thing this year more than anything else, and that is a sense of hope. Because they\u2019re not getting it from this current government,\u201d he said in his speech.<\/p>\n
Labour MPs eating lunch in the Quality Hotel Lincoln Green conference room.<\/p>\n
That also works as a premature defence against one of Luxon\u2019s go-to attacks on Hipkins: that poor economic conditions are a hangover from the mismanagement and overspending of the last Labour government. \u201cAll Christopher Luxon and National are offering is more blame, more excuses, more negativity, more cuts,\u201d he said during his media standup.<\/p>\n