{"id":252033,"date":"2026-01-26T05:40:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T05:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/252033\/"},"modified":"2026-01-26T05:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T05:40:08","slug":"economists-are-split-on-whether-a-rate-rise-is-coming-this-week-could-be-the-decider-capital-brief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/252033\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists are split on whether a rate rise is coming. This week could be the decider. \u2014 Capital Brief"},"content":{"rendered":"

The labour market has continued to surprise economists, shocking several into bringing forward their rate-rise predictions to February. Others are holding off on a final forecast until this week\u2019s inflation data is published.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.<\/p>\n

New numbers<\/p>\n

The data: Consumer price index, December 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/p>\n

When: Wednesday 28 January 2026<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

What to expect: All eyes are on the release of inflation data this week ahead of the Reserve Bank’s February rate decision. While some economists<\/a> \u2014 notably those at UBS, HSBC and Bank of America \u2014 pulled forward rate rise expectations to next month due to stronger than expected unemployment figures<\/a> and jobs growth, many others are waiting for this final data release before finalising their calls.<\/p>\n

The Commonwealth Bank is tipping a 0.3% monthly rise for the headline figure with an annual rate at 3.8%. On a trimmed mean basis, it\u2019s eyeing 0.9% a quarter \u2014 down from 1% in the third quarter \u2014 but still \u201cwell above the pace consistent with the RBA achieving its inflation target\u201d. CBA\u2019s trimmed mean annual forecast is 3.3%, up from 3% in the third quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The labour market has continued to surprise economists, shocking several into bringing forward their rate-rise predictions to February.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":252034,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,146260,111,139,69,16549],"class_list":{"0":"post-252033","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-forward-guidance","11":"tag-new-zealand","12":"tag-newzealand","13":"tag-nz","14":"tag-rba"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=252033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252033\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/252034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=252033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=252033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=252033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}