{"id":257301,"date":"2026-01-29T07:57:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T07:57:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/257301\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T07:57:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T07:57:08","slug":"confidence-eases-as-inflation-pressure-emerges-anz-business-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/257301\/","title":{"rendered":"Confidence eases as inflation pressure emerges \u2013 ANZ Business Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"The \u201cless-good news\u201d was re-emerging signs of inflation pressure, she said.<\/p>\n
The net percentage of firms expecting to increase their prices lifted sharply to 56.5, the highest level since March 2023.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis indicator is heading in the opposite direction to the RBNZ\u2019s [Reserve Bank] inflation forecasts. Cost and inflation expectations were more benign,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are forecasting the first OCR [Official Cash Rate] hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it\u2019ll come earlier than that.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the other hand, if the fall in the activity indicators this month proves to be the start of a meaningful loss in momentum, risks could tilt back the other way.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mild upward pressure was also starting to emerge in wages.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe expected wage increase of 2.8% is hardly strong but has turned higher,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn terms of past outcomes, the proportion of firms who said they have raised wages in the past 12 months increased from 67% to 72%, the highest since April 2024, while the average reported wage increase lifted from 2.6% to 2.8%.\u201d<\/p>\n
Past own activity eased 3 points to 26, the second-highest read since August 2021, while past employment lifted 3 points to 7, the highest since October 2022.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe economy has clearly turned higher,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cReported past activity (the best indicator of GDP) is suggesting a solid [fourth-quarter] GDP result could be on the cards, with a broad-based lift, and the strength has been largely maintained into January.\u201d<\/p>\n
Reported past employment was also rising and was back in the black for all sectors. <\/p>\n
That hadn\u2019t been the case since late 2022, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the NZ Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The \u201cless-good news\u201d was re-emerging signs of inflation pressure, she said. The net percentage of firms expecting to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":235370,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[128706,3225,12465,806,1863,138,2950,7500,143305,60827,219,92822,71,2959,1943,68199,700,111,139,69,17695,21411,8822],"class_list":["post-257301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-30year","tag-according","tag-anz","tag-as","tag-back","tag-business","tag-confidence","tag-december","tag-eased","tag-eases","tag-economy","tag-emerges","tag-from","tag-high","tag-inflation","tag-january","tag-latest","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-outlook","tag-pressure","tag-survey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=257301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257301\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/235370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=257301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=257301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=257301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}