{"id":258988,"date":"2026-01-30T07:54:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T07:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/258988\/"},"modified":"2026-01-30T07:54:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T07:54:15","slug":"fossil-fuels-are-doomed-and-trump-cant-save-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/258988\/","title":{"rendered":"Fossil fuels are doomed \u2013 and Trump can\u2019t save them"},"content":{"rendered":"

The past three years have been the world\u2019s hottest on record<\/a>. In 2025, Earth was 1.44\u00b0C warmer<\/a> than the long-term average, perilously close to breaching the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5\u00b0C. <\/p>\n

This warming is fuelling Australia\u2019s current record-breaking heatwave<\/a>. Other consequences are visible globally, from Iran\u2019s crippling drought<\/a> to catastrophic wildfires<\/a> and unprecedented floods<\/a> in the United States to deadly cyclones<\/a> hitting southern Asia.<\/p>\n

We know what to do to tackle the climate crisis: replace fossil fuels with clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric vehicles and batteries. We are well on our way. Globally, the power produced by renewables overtook coal<\/a> last year. <\/p>\n

Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and the US have made trillions from oil and gas. Now they are fighting a rearguard action<\/a> to prolong fossil fuels. The US is pushing European nations to buy its gas<\/a>, for instance. <\/p>\n

But most countries have seen the writing on the wall. In November, the COP31 climate talks in Turkey are expected to deliver a global roadmap<\/a> away from fossil fuels. Dozens of countries will meet in Colombia in April to fast-track the transition<\/a>. The road ahead is bumpy. But the end of fossil fuels may finally be coming into view. <\/p>\n

\"protestors<\/a><\/p>\n

Protestors call for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels at last year\u2019s COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
\n Andre Penner\/AAP<\/a><\/p>\n

No holding back clean energy<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no one trying harder to slow the clean energy transition than US president Donald Trump. During his bid to return to the White House, Trump pressed oil executives<\/a> for US$1 billion (A$1.4 bn) in campaign finance, promising a windfall in return. <\/p>\n

In 2025, he increased subsidies<\/a> for fossil fuel producers, weakened environmental laws<\/a>, gutted Biden-era support for clean energy<\/a> and moved to block clean energy projects<\/a>, even some near completion. The US is now one of the world\u2019s biggest exporters<\/a> of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil.<\/p>\n

But clean energy growth has proved difficult to kill<\/a>. Despite Trump\u2019s efforts, domestic solar generation is still expected to grow 46%<\/a> in the next two years while electricity output from fossil fuel plants falls.<\/p>\n

Trump is betting fossil fuels are the key to future American power. He made no secret of the fact the US military raid on Venezuela earlier this month was aimed at increasing oil production<\/a>. He has implored US oil companies to invest billions<\/a> to revive the country\u2019s battered oil infrastructure. The response was lukewarm. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Venezuela was \u201cuninvestable<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n

Developing Venezuela\u2019s oil reserves assumes there will be demand for decades to come. But the world now faces an oversupply of oil<\/a>, even as sales of electric vehicles grow strongly<\/a> in many countries. Last month, battery electric vehicles outsold petrol cars<\/a> for the first time in Europe. <\/p>\n

Electrostates rising<\/p>\n

While the US doubles down on 20th century fossil fuels, China is betting on an electric 21st century. It is emerging as the first electrostate<\/a>, dominating production and export of solar, wind, batteries and EVs. China is now the world\u2019s biggest car exporter. Most new Chinese cars are powered by batteries<\/a>, not oil. <\/p>\n

China\u2019s manufacturing might has driven down the price of batteries, the main cost of EVs. As EVs get cheaper, emerging economies are finding they can leapfrog fossil fuels<\/a> and move straight to solar panels and EVs \u2013 even if the national power grid is limited or unreliable. <\/p>\n

Commodity price trends show surging global demand<\/a> for copper, silver and other metals needed for mass electrification. Worldwide, investment in clean energy technologies first overtook fossil fuel investment ten years ago. In 2025, clean investment was more than double<\/a> the investment in coal, oil and gas. Clean energy is where the world is headed, whether Trump likes it or not.<\/p>\n

China<\/a>, India<\/a> and Pakistan<\/a> are rapidly making the shift to renewable power. Developing nations from Nepal<\/a> to Ethiopia<\/a> are taking up electric transport to slash the cost of importing fossil fuels. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

China dominates production of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, batteries and EVs.
\n CFOTO\/Future Publishing via Getty Images<\/a><\/p>\n

A new roadmap away from fossil fuels<\/p>\n

This week, the US formally withdrew<\/a> from the Paris Agreement. But no other country has followed. <\/p>\n

For decades, the COP talks have focused on \u201ccutting emissions\u201d without dealing directly with the use of coal, oil and gas. But at the 2023 talks, nearly 200 countries agreed to \u201ctransition away from fossil fuels<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n

At last year\u2019s COP30 talks, host nation Brazil proposed a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels<\/a>. More than 80 countries backed the idea<\/a>, including Australia<\/a>, but pushback from Saudi Arabia and Russia kept it out of the final outcomes. <\/p>\n

In response, Brazil is working to develop a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels<\/a>. This \u2013 or something similar \u2013 may be formally adopted<\/a> at the next climate talks in November. <\/p>\n

While COP31 will be held in Turkey, Australian climate minister Chris Bowen will have a key role as \u201cPresident of Negotiations<\/a>\u201d and will steer global discussion<\/a> ahead of the summit. <\/p>\n

Bowen plans to lobby petrostates to support a managed shift away from fossil fuels, drawing on Australia\u2019s experience as a major exporter of coal and LNG<\/a> facing its own transition. Korea \u2013 Australia\u2019s third largest market for thermal coal \u2013 will retire its entire coal fleet<\/a> by 2040. <\/p>\n

Government modelling suggests Australia\u2019s coal and gas exports could plummet 50% in value in five years<\/a> as global demand falls. Independent modelling suggests the decline for coal could happen even faster<\/a> if countries meet their climate targets. Policymakers must plan to manage this transition. <\/p>\n

\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

Australian climate minister Chris Bowen at last year\u2019s COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
\n Fernando Llano\/AP<\/a><\/p>\n

Coalitions of the willing?<\/p>\n

Frustrated by slow progress, a coalition of nations is separately discussing how to phase out fossil fuels. The first conference will take place<\/a> in April in Colombia. Here, delegates will discuss how to wind down fossil fuels while protecting workers and financial systems<\/a>. Some nations want to negotiate<\/a> a standalone treaty to manage the phase-out. Conference outcomes will also feed back into the UN climate talks. <\/p>\n

Pacific island nations aim to be the world\u2019s first 100% renewable region<\/a>. Ahead of COP31, Australia and island nations will meet<\/a> to progress this. <\/p>\n

Progress is happening<\/p>\n

In an ideal world, nations would rapidly tackle the existential threat of climate change together. We don\u2019t live in that world. But it may not matter. <\/p>\n

The shift to clean electric options has its own momentum. The question is whether the shift away from coal, oil and gas will be orderly \u2013 or chaotic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The past three years have been the world\u2019s hottest on record. In 2025, Earth was 1.44\u00b0C warmer than…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":258989,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[273,111,139,69,147],"class_list":["post-258988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/258989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}