The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey, conducted since 2003, is administered by independent research agency Kantar, interviewing a panel of about 450 farmers each quarter.<\/p>\n
Todd Charteris, Rabobank\u2019s chief executive officer, said it was fantastic to see strong farmer confidence extending into a fourth successive quarter.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe cyclical nature of farming means it\u2019s rare for farmer sentiment to stay elevated for such an extended period,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd if we look back across the history of the survey, we have to go all the way back to the 2013\/14 season for the last time we had four consecutive quarters where confidence was at such lofty heights.\u201d<\/p>\n
Charteris said a record milk price had been the catalyst for the latest extended spell of strong farmer sentiment, as was the case in 2013\/14.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince our last survey in June, we\u2019ve seen Fonterra maintain its milk price forecast of $10\/kgMS for the 2025\/26 season, and we\u2019ve also seen them raise their forecast for 2024\/25 season to $10.15\/kgMS.\u201d<\/p>\n
Charteris said Fonterra\u2019s plan to sell its consumer and associated businesses to Lactalis was also a factor.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf approved, this could bring a tax-free capital return of $2 per share for their farmer shareholders.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll this news has been warmly welcomed by sector participants and has helped keep dairy farmer sentiment high.\u201d<\/p>\n
Charteris said red meat sector confidence was also soaring due to an ongoing wave of high commodity pricing for beef and sheepmeat.<\/p>\n
\u201cLed by the US, global demand for New Zealand beef remains strong and this has flowed through to record-breaking prices for cattle over recent months,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cFarmgate lamb prices are also at historical highs, and a combination of tight domestic supply and strong overseas demand is expected to ensure pricing stays elevated over the remainder of 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n
Unsurprisingly, the survey found farmers with an optimistic view on the broader agri-economy cited \u201crising commodity prices\u201d (67%) as the main reason for their optimism.<\/p>\n
\u201cIncreasing demand\u201d (20%) and \u201cfalling interest rates\u201d (17%) were the next most-frequently cited reasons for positive sentiment.<\/p>\n
Among the 5% of farmers expecting conditions in the agri economy to deteriorate, \u201cgovernment policy\/ intervention\u201d (43%) \u201crising input prices\u201d (30%) and overseas markets\/economies (29%) were the major reasons given for pessimism.<\/p>\n
Own farm business performance <\/p>\n
Rabobank chief executive Todd Charteris.<\/p>\n
The survey found farmers\u2019 expectations for their own farm business operations were also marginally higher than the past quarter, the net reading rising to +42% (from +40%).<\/p>\n
The readings for dairy farmers and sheep\/beef farmers rose to +54% and +53% respectively.<\/p>\n
However, growers were less optimistic, falling to a net reading of +1% from +20% three months ago.<\/p>\n
Listen to Jamie Mackay interview Todd Charteris on The Country below:<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile prices for key New Zealand horticultural products like kiwifruit and apples remain healthy, they haven\u2019t quite reached the record-breaking heights that we\u2019ve seen in the dairy and red meat sectors,\u201d Charteris said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd growers were split on the prospects for their own businesses in the year ahead, with 31% expecting performance to improve, 30% expecting it to worsen, and 34% expecting it to remain the same.\u201d<\/p>\n
Farmers\u2019 investment intentions<\/p>\n
The survey found New Zealand farmers\u2019 investment intentions were largely unchanged from the past quarter, the net reading falling to +24% from +25% previously.<\/p>\n
\u201cDairy farmers continue to have the strongest investment intentions and their net reading on this measure rose to +43% with close to half (46%) expecting to increase investment and only 3% expecting investment will reduce,\u201d Charteris said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSheep and beef farmers and horticulturalists\u2019 investment intentions were weaker than those of their dairy counterparts, but positive overall at net readings of +17% and +5% respectively.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mixed levels of concern over US tariff rate hike<\/p>\n
Charteris said farmers who participated in the most recent survey were asked to rate their level of concern on a scale from 1 to 10 about the recent increase in the US tariff rate on New Zealand goods from 10% to 15%.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile we are yet to see any major drop off in US demand for New Zealand\u2019s agricultural products, the recent increase \u2013 announced on July 31 \u2013 to a 15% tariff does put us at a competitive disadvantage to countries like Australia, which remained at a tariff of 10%,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Charteris said the level of farmer concern over this tariff increase was variable, with responses at either end of the scale, and the average score sitting at 5.5 out of 10.<\/p>\n
He said the full impact of the increased US tariff rates on New Zealand and other countries, such as Brazil, had yet to be fully felt. <\/p>\n
\u201cNew Zealand farmers and growers will be keeping a close watch on how these tariffs impact global agri commodity trade over the months ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey, conducted since 2003, is administered by independent research agency Kantar, interviewing a panel…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25974,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3225,26216,26215,138,2950,13982,380,219,26217,12026,78,700,25449,117,111,139,69,26214,3175,26218,26213,8822,61,80],"class_list":["post-25973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-according","tag-agricultural","tag-broader","tag-business","tag-confidence","tag-continues","tag-decade","tag-economy","tag-edged","tag-farmer","tag-in","tag-latest","tag-level","tag-new","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-rabobank","tag-rural","tag-secondhighest","tag-soar","tag-survey","tag-to","tag-zealand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}