{"id":263996,"date":"2026-02-02T15:05:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T15:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/263996\/"},"modified":"2026-02-02T15:05:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T15:05:09","slug":"rabobank-warns-agribusiness-to-brace-for-volatile-2026-trading-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/263996\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank warns agribusiness to brace for volatile 2026 trading year"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u201cMajor economies are making assertive \u2018opening moves\u2019 on trade, technology and security, turning commerce into a tool of leverage more than co-operation,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Higgins said that for New\u202fZealand, \u201cthis isn\u2019t distant noise\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is the environment in which our farmers, processors and exporters must operate \u2013 in addition to usual supply and demand fundamentals.<\/p>\n
\u201cChess rewards players who think three moves ahead,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor New\u202fZealand agribusiness in 2026, this could mean focusing on the wider forces shaping the board \u2013 not just day-to-day price movements.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the right positioning, New\u202fZealand farmers and exporters can turn a shifting board into tomorrow\u2019s opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n
The report says political developments \u2013 both locally and internationally \u2013 shape as a key driver of New Zealand agriculture\u2019s fortunes in the coming 12 months.<\/p>\n
New\u202fZealand\u2019s election, due on November 7, would likely see land, water and climate as key campaign topics.<\/p>\n
Rabobank senior analyst Emma Higgins. Photo \/ Supplied <\/p>\n
Offshore, the US heads into a high-stakes political cycle of its own, with policy signalling, tariff talk and bureaucratic muscle likely to keep markets on edge. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe specifics will shift but the tempo is set, and volatility is part of the rhythm.\u201d<\/p>\n
With the Reserve Bank\u2019s easing cycle largely complete, Higgins said interest rate cuts were expected to pause, with a possible firming later in the year. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis offers short-term breathing room on debt servicing, but also keeps currency movements front-of-mind.\u201d<\/p>\n
The NZD\/USD exchange rate is expected to swing between the high-US50cs and low-US60c, meaning export receipts may move as much with offshore politics as with economic data.<\/p>\n
\u201cLooking further ahead, the future role of the US dollar is worth watching.\u201d<\/p>\n
This is particularly the case, Higgins said, given \u201cwe are now seeing China settling more commodity purchases in renminbi\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cCryptocurrency stablecoins are also now creeping into international commodity trade,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd while exporters need not react yet, they do need to stay aware.\u201d<\/p>\n
The report says climate is a further factor holding significant influence over the sector\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n
\u201cClimate remains the strongest piece on the board, shaping every part of New\u202fZealand\u2019s food and fibre sector,\u201d Higgins said.<\/p>\n
The report said energy markets had reset lower through late 2025, with Brent crude oil sliding into the high US$50s a barrel and offering relief for freight and fuel budgets.<\/p>\n
Higgins said on-farm efficiency upgrades, diversified freight paths and disciplined cost management remained essential.<\/p>\n
Fertiliser affordability will likely remain challenging this year, the report said.<\/p>\n
Urea was highly volatile through 2025 and hopes of early-2026 stability have faded.<\/p>\n
Geopolitical risks remained the biggest driver, with unrest in Iran posing a direct risk given its 10% share of global urea exports, Higgins said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny escalation in tensions could push prices higher, and markets can move quickly.<\/p>\n
\u201cStrong early-season buying in the US, alongside sustained Indian demand, is likely to keep wholesale prices supported before easing later in the year.\u201d<\/p>\n
Grains and oilseeds remain subdued because of large global corn stocks and expanded South American plantings.<\/p>\n
\u201cLower feed costs may help intensive competitors, but they also highlight the natural cost advantage of New\u202fZealand\u2019s pasture-based systems.\u201d<\/p>\n
2026 Outlook:<\/p>\n
Dairy: Rabobank said it would be another record for milk production at a time when milk flows are voluminous elsewhere.<\/p>\n
\u201cCritical to farmer fortunes will be the strength of demand in the face of abundant milk supply,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n
Beef: Strong United States demand continued to underpin New Zealand beef pricing in 2026, with firm farmgate values supported by elevated US import prices and only modest supply growth.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s new quota settings remained a key watch point.<\/p>\n
Sheep: Sheepmeat enters 2026 with firm pricing supported by tight global supply, steady demand and improved market diversification, the bank said.<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n