{"id":26579,"date":"2025-09-16T22:06:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T22:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/26579\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T22:06:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T22:06:07","slug":"is-europe-winter-ready-despite-lower-gas-stocks-dw-09-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/26579\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Europe winter-ready despite lower gas stocks? \u2013 DW \u2013 09\/16\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brrrrr! Autumn\u2019s chill is creeping in across much of Europe<\/a>, hinting at the deep freeze to come this winter.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, Gas Infrastructure Europe, the gas operators’ association,\u00a0reports that European Union<\/a>\u00a0gas reserves are at just over 80% [September 15, 2025]\u00a0\u2014 lower than the 90% cushions of the last few years but stronger than 2021. So will this winter glow with warmth or flicker with uncertainty?<\/p>\n

Having diversified energy supplies<\/a> from Russia<\/a> following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine<\/a> in 2022,\u00a0EU countries pivoted to liquified natural gas<\/a> (LNG) from Norway<\/a>, the United States<\/a>\u00a0and Qatar<\/a>, while continuing\u00a0to boost the rollout of renewable energies<\/a>, including solar and wind.<\/p>\n

Over the past two years, thanks to that extra capacity,\u00a0Europe was able to ensure its gas reserves were almost full by September, providing an additional cushion for the coldest months of the year. Gas stocks should remain robust this winter, too.<\/p>\n

Gas refill race seen as less critical<\/p>\n

With the EU no longer in an acute energy crisis<\/a>, Brussels is being flexible in giving EU gas stocks an extra month, till December 1, to reach 90% capacity, if required.\u00a0Europe also used up more of its gas reserves last winter, leaving less of a surplus than usual.<\/p>\n

Petras Katinas, energy analyst\u00a0at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says current storage levels and alternative supplies provide a “solid buffer” against supply disruptions.\u00a0“But\u00a0rapid withdrawals and weather volatility could still cause temporary price spikes or localized shortages,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

Complementing Europe\u2019s internal resilience, global supply conditions and stable prices are also supporting\u00a0the bloc’s\u00a0energy preparedness for winter.<\/p>\n

According to Tom Marzec-Manzer, from the global research and consultancy house\u00a0Wood Mackenzie,\u00a0global energy supply\u00a0is up this year, while demand \u2014 especially for gas \u2014 is likely weaker.<\/p>\n

“That has been a real benefit to refilling Europe’s storage units this summer, which are\u00a0continuing at a nice clip,” the consultancy’s Director Europe Gas & LNG\u00a0told DW.<\/p>\n

Despite this, the bloc remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, not least those stemming from US President\u00a0Donald Trump’s tariffs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"AnEU states have been importing more liquified natural gas (LNG) via shipImage: Stefan Sauer\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/p>\n

Russia\u00a0energy tariffs create new uncertainty<\/p>\n

\u00a0Trump<\/a> is pressuring Brussels to put sanctions on buyers of Russian energy,\u00a0arguing that it will pile additional financial strain on Moscow to end the three-and-a-half-year conflict.<\/p>\n

Last week, US Treasury Secretary\u00a0Scott Bessent told the EU and\u00a0the Group of 7<\/a> (G7) wealthy\u00a0nations\u00a0that they should join Washington in imposing “meaningful” tariffs on China<\/a> and India<\/a> over their energy deals with Moscow.<\/p>\n

Trump has told Brussels that the US would “mirror” such tariffs, with a rate of 100% being considered.<\/p>\n

Trump has already imposed 50% tariffs on India \u2014 25% baseline plus 25% for striking a deal with Moscow in 2022 to buy discounted hydrocarbons.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, China \u2014\u00a0which has also ramped up purchases of Russian energy \u2014 holds a significantly stronger negotiating position with Washington over\u00a0Trump’s tariff threat. As a result, the US president has yet to outline plans for energy-related tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy, while negotiations remain ongoing.<\/p>\n

\"AGas prices soared in 2022, triggering a supply shock that hit Europe hardestImage: picture alliance \/ abaca<\/p>\n

Ukraine gas transit deal had limited impact<\/p>\n

The expiration of the Ukraine<\/a>-Russia gas transit agreement<\/a> on January 1 marked another layer of geopolitical pressure on Europe\u2019s energy supply. Kyiv’s decision not to renew the deal was also aimed at cutting off a revenue stream that helps fund Russia’s war effort.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The five-year agreement, which had allowed Russian gas to flow westward via Ukrainian pipelines, effectively closed\u00a0one of the last major routes into the EU.<\/p>\n

Initial fears of price spikes and supply disruptions were widespread, particularly in countries like Austria<\/a>, Slovakia<\/a>\u00a0and Hungary<\/a>, which had remained more reliant on Russian pipeline gas. Benchmark gas prices rose nearly 50% at points last year amid concerns about cold weather and reduced flows.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet the actual market impact was muted.\u00a0Western Europe had already diversified its energy sources, while underground storage levels remained strong heading into winter.<\/p>\n

“The drop-off in volumes [via Ukraine] hasn’t been huge, although some countries, particularly Slovakia, had to reorient\u00a0some\u00a0purchases,”\u00a0Tom Marzec-Manzer said. “Because it was well-anticipated, the end of the Ukraine gas transit deal\u00a0didn’t have a huge price or supply impact.”<\/p>\n

2 year target for energy independence from\u00a0Russia<\/p>\n

Having ridden the energy crisis, the EU is now in a stronger position to diversify the last of its supplies of Russian hydrocarbons. The bloc\u00a0has already cut Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, while Russian oil imports have shrunk from 27% at the start of the war to just 3% last year, according to the European Commission<\/a>, the bloc’s executive arm.<\/p>\n

In May, the Commission published a detailed roadmap to completely ban all remaining imports of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas by 2027. The plan requires EU states to submit national\u00a0plans for the phaseout of Russian gas by the end of the year, but this could still prove tricky for some.<\/p>\n

“The Baltics have done an excellent job moving away from Russian fossil fuels,\u00a0while Poland has largely phased out Russian gas,” Katinas told DW. He said progress has been “uneven” in other Visegrad countries due to a lack of diversification efforts and investment in renewables.<\/p>\n

Nord Stream: Germany’s thwarted dream of energy security<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

The EU’s strong gas stocks and varied supply lines are bolstering the bloc’s winter readiness, yet Trump’s tariff moves and unpredictable weather cloud the horizon. Natural gas prices won\u2019t likely climb to 2022’s nearly \u20ac340\/MWh ($400)\u00a0extremes, but isolated shortages could spark temporary spikes.<\/p>\n

Edited by: Uwe Hessler<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Brrrrr! Autumn\u2019s chill is creeping in across much of Europe, hinting at the deep freeze to come this…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26580,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-26579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26579\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}