{"id":279023,"date":"2026-02-11T17:16:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T17:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/279023\/"},"modified":"2026-02-11T17:16:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T17:16:19","slug":"six-snow-leopards-to-watch-for-in-the-decade-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/279023\/","title":{"rendered":"Six \u2018snow leopards\u2019 to watch\u00a0for\u00a0in\u00a0the decade ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Panthera uncia\u2014the snow leopard that inhabits high mountain ranges in Central and South Asia\u2014is one of nature\u2019s best-camouflaged animals. The majestic cat\u2019s beautiful white coat, with gray and black spots, blends seamlessly into the rocky and snowy landscape in which it lives. Known as \u201cthe ghost of the mountains,\u201d it seems to appear out of thin air. The reality, of course, is the snow leopard has been there all along, an unseen sight.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In world affairs, there are numerous under-the-radar phenomena that are difficult to spot but crucial to understand given their capacity for disruption and transformation. Like the Himalayan cat, these metaphorical \u201csnow leopards\u201d may appear invisible but in fact are all around us: early-stage technologies that, if developed and scaled, might yield revolutionary results; social movements that, while just beginning to gather strength, could have enormous political consequences in the years to come; demographic trends that only a few experts study but that could overhaul societies in the long run; ecological changes that are not yet fully understood by scientists but could portend disaster ahead should they worsen. These phenomena present underrated risks or opportunities. Each of them could reshape the future.\u00a0Some already are.\u00a0We just need to know where to look.<\/p>\n

Each year, our Global Foresight series identifies a new set of snow leopards. In this year\u2019s edition, as in previous editions, this challenging task fell to the Atlantic Council\u2019s younger staff, who are well-positioned to identify trends, events, technologies, and forces that their older colleagues might overlook. They scrutinized the world around them and came up with a list of underappreciated but potentially world-changing phenomena.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the years to come, keep an eye on these six snow leopards.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When businesses are first movers on the battlefield<\/p>\n

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, among the first responders were a conglomeration<\/a> of<\/a> cyber<\/a> and tech<\/a> companies<\/a> of all sizes.<\/a> These companies did critical work to ensure that Ukraine\u2019s cyber defenses held up against an unprecedented onslaught of Russian cyberattacks. Combined with<\/a> assistance<\/a> from allied<\/a> governments<\/a>, such efforts helped keep the lights on in Ukraine. But the companies\u2019 interventions amounted to entering a conflict of their own volition, without a state\u2019s authorization or direction\u2014which triggered profound geopolitical risks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The private sector participating in conflict is nothing new; governments have contracted<\/a> with private companies in war and peacetime for centuries<\/a>. But three elements are new: First, cybersecurity companies have begun entering interstate conflicts without the authorization of or at least direction from states. Second, these companies effectively possess state-grade capabilities\u2014and, with that, the ability to make world-changing decisions\u2014but without the policy, legal, or risk frameworks states erect around such capabilities to constrain their use. Third, states, citizens, and businesses are increasingly dependent<\/a> on these companies\u2019<\/a> infrastructure<\/a> and services in peacetime and for cyber defense in conflict. Microsoft recognized this in a June 2022 reflection on the company\u2019s assistance to Ukraine, declaring that the technology sector has an \u201cinevitable\u201d role to play in the \u201ccyber defense of nations<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

The risks of this kind of private-sector involvement in conflict are already emerging. Civil society<\/a> has raised questions about whether cyber and tech companies constitute combatants under international humanitarian law<\/a>, particularly where their capabilities intersect with state capabilities\u2014as when, for example, private firms identify exploitable vulnerabilities<\/a> (or \u201czero days\u201d) in other companies\u2019 software code. As states and others increasingly contest<\/a> privately owned digital infrastructure, ideologically motivated cyberattacks (\u201chacktivism\u201d) have also risen\u2014creating heightened risks of retaliation<\/a>. The whims of tech executives also have geopolitical consequence. In September 2022, for example, Elon Musk reportedly cut internet access in Ukraine provided<\/a> via his Starlink satellite technology, disrupting a key Ukrainian counteroffensive. In response, a British member of parliament decried the \u201cdangers of concentrated power in unregulated domains.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

Where these risks could amount to world-changing impact is during a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and both Taipei and Beijing are clearly paying attention. Musk\u2019s reported decision to cut Ukraine\u2019s internet access was one reason Taiwan set up its own satellite internet infrastructure<\/a>. There is some evidence that the Chinese state also is learning lessons<\/a> from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine about the role of US cyber and tech companies as a source of advantage in conflict. This development might not be so concerning were it not for the significant business dependencies that Apple and other US tech giants have in China<\/a>, which could muddy decision-making<\/a> during any period of conflict. The clarity<\/a> and unity<\/a> of purpose seen in cyber companies\u2019 efforts to help Ukraine cannot be guaranteed in the future.<\/p>\n

This is an issue that the international security community must address through dialogue<\/a> and policy development with the private sector. Goals should include firmer guardrails and improved accountability mechanisms\u2014or outright deference to states as primary decision-makers. Such dialogue will prepare states and industry to jointly navigate future conflicts and collective preparedness without generating unintended consequences when the private sector jumps ahead of states.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nikita Shah is a former senior resident fellow in the Atlantic Council\u2019s Cyber Statecraft Initiative with ten years\u2019 experience as a national security professional in the UK government specializing in cyber security.<\/p>\n

Leave, learn, return\u2014and start a business?<\/p>\n

Many countries have experienced migration as a driver of \u201cbrain drain\u201d\u2014a one-way outflow of human capital. But a more dynamic pattern<\/a> is reshaping global talent flows in some<\/a> parts<\/a> of the world. A growing number of migrants who work or study overseas are returning to their home countries with new skills\u2014a pattern known as \u201cbrain circulation<\/a>\u201d\u2014or staying closely connected to their home countries and turning their global experiences into new opportunities there.<\/p>\n

Brain drain refers to the loss that occurs when a country\u2019s citizens, especially highly skilled and educated workers, pursue opportunities abroad. Host countries often gain productivity, tax revenue, and innovation\u2014except when migrants are pushed into low-skilled work (such as when immigrants holding master\u2019s degrees work at jobs requiring a high-school diploma), a phenomenon known as \u201cbrain waste.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another concept, \u201cbrain gain,\u201d captures the positive effects of emigration for sending countries: The prospect of opportunities abroad motivates more people to pursue higher education, most of whom remain at home. Those who do leave often continue to contribute through remittances and stronger trade ties.<\/p>\n

But these concepts overlook the circulation of talent that is quietly changing the geography of opportunity worldwide. \u201cBrain circulation\u201d first became visible in countries such as India and China<\/a>, where engineers and entrepreneurs who had lived and worked in the United States returned and used their US career experience to start businesses at home.<\/p>\n

What began as a modest trend in the early 2000s is accelerating as travel and digital connectivity become more accessible. The circulation of skilled, educated workers is now remaking national and regional economies. Studies show that returning immigrants tend to be more entrepreneurial<\/a> and resilient than their peers and are significantly more likely to start businesses<\/a>. Migrants return with expertise and global exposure they could not have acquired domestically.<\/p>\n

Central and Eastern Europe<\/a> illustrate how transformative this loop can be. After experiencing decades of outward migration, Central and Eastern European countries are now registering rising return flows<\/a>. Romania, for example, has had three consecutive years of positive net migration driven by returning citizens. They launch startups<\/a>, invest in local ecosystems, and open doors to new practices and global markets<\/a>, sometimes with the support of government financing programs<\/a>. Such ventures are helping power a regional boom. In 2024, startups in the region raised nearly \u20ac3.7 billion,<\/a> a 56 percent increase from the previous year. Nearly half of that total\u2014more than a billion euros\u2014came from companies whose founders studied or worked abroad, or worked at big multinational companies.<\/p>\n

At a time when many countries are grappling with aging populations, talent shortages, and relentless competition, this loop of leaving, learning, and returning is becoming a critical source of national advantage. Brain circulation offers a replicable model for countries that need to catalyze growth and sustain innovation. Countries that recognize this opportunity build policies and institutions that drive people, skills, and capital to move in loops, not lines, so that yesterday\u2019s emigrants become tomorrow\u2019s nation-builders<\/a>. The future belongs to dynamic societies that treat mobility as a renewable resource, turning migration into a story of shared prosperity and, ultimately, into the backbone of a global innovation system that can respond to challenges and opportunities no country can tackle alone.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Uliana Certan<\/a> is an assistant director for European engagement at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Global Energy Center and Atlantic Council Romania.<\/p>\n

Big seaweed could be big business<\/p>\n

In the waters off one-third<\/a> of the world\u2019s coastlines grows a powerhouse plant: kelp. Towering kelp forests capture twenty times more<\/a> carbon dioxide (CO2) than do land forests of equivalent size. They promise lower-cost and lower-carbon ways to feed the world\u2019s population, and they protect coastlines from the effects of more powerful storms. As scientists and policymakers increasingly turn to nature-based solutions<\/a> to take on climate change, these colorful stalks of algae may be the next big thing.<\/p>\n

Kelp forests can remove one ton of carbon emissions from the atmosphere for somewhere between $20 and $85. To do the same with direct-air-capture machines costs $1,000 per ton. Not only is kelp an incredible carbon sink, it drives other forms of environmental conservation and protection.<\/a> The stalks reduce the size of tidal waves by up to 60 percent, prevent soil erosion, and absorb agricultural runoff. Studies show that kelp supports<\/a> the development of the biogenic aerosols that help clouds form, reducing the temperature of water, soil, and air. Kelp also is an ingredient in biodegradable biopolymers, which can replace petroleum-based plastics.<\/p>\n

In the food and agriculture sectors, kelp is both a nutritional food source and a protective habitat for hundreds of plant and animal species, including commercial fish such as cod, crab, octopus, and lobster.<\/p>\n

And it doesn\u2019t stop at seafood: Sprinkling seaweed on cattle feed can reduce cows\u2019 methane emissions by between 40 and 80 percent. Kelp can be processed<\/a> into natural, liquid biostimulants for agriculture, which can reduce the need for artificial fertilizers that release greenhouse gases. These kelp-based treatments also could reduce the large amounts of water required by many high-value cash crops such as almonds, avocados, strawberries, and grapes.<\/p>\n

Beyond<\/a> the environment and agri-food industries, kelp generates health and cosmetic products, attractive tourist destinations for snorkeling, and critical supplies for indigenous communities.<\/p>\n

Kelp, however, faces an uncertain future<\/a> due to predators, pollution, and marine heatwaves induced by climate change. Efforts to regrow<\/a> damaged kelp forests off the coast of California offer a prime example for other coastal governments. Scientists and conservationists are planting specific kelp varieties that grow three times faster and absorb double the amount of CO2 compared with other kelp. When this kelp matures, by some calculations it could absorb<\/a> as much CO2 as the global aviation sector emits. Kelp could help the state meet its target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2045\u2014five years sooner than the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

To help kelp survive in warmer oceans, scientists use remotely operated vehicles and motorized growing lattices<\/a>, raising the kelp toward the water\u2019s surface during the day to absorb sunlight and lowering it into deeper, more nutrient-rich water at night.<\/p>\n

The effects of climate change on the world\u2019s coral reefs have grabbed headlines. The United Nations Decade on Environmental Restoration has increased attention<\/a> on coral-reef, mangrove, and seagrass restoration efforts. But so far, there has been limited funding focused<\/a> specifically on kelp growth and management.<\/p>\n

Global cooperation on kelp will be crucial for future climate efforts, as new research proves that oceanic carbon sinks are 15 percent<\/a> larger than land sinks. But even in the absence of such coordination, expect continued momentum for work on kelp. Kelp and seaweed farming is the fastest-growing global aquaculture industry, increasing 6.2 percent<\/a> per year over the last twenty years. Countries in Asia, particularly China and Indonesia, produce 98 percent<\/a> of farmed seaweed by volume globally, but there is enormous potential for growth and applications in Europe, Africa, and the Americas. And with a $500 billion<\/a> market, kelp has plenty of potential to combat climate change, mitigate the biodiversity crisis around the world, and develop a more profitable and sustainable \u201cblue economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ginger Matchett<\/a> is an assistant director for the GeoStrategy Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.<\/p>\n

Are we going back to the bad old days?<\/p>\n

In recent years, an alarming<\/a> number of countries have withdrawn from or defied human rights treaties and humanitarian conventions. Global norms about how human beings should be treated were a key part of the international system that arose after World War II, including the 1948 adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights<\/a>. Specialists have said for years<\/a> that this postwar system is under stress. But the consequences for individuals are underappreciated. If the postwar order was a bulwark against the horrors of the twentieth century, the idea that ordinary citizens should be protected from unrestrained state power was a load-bearing pillar. The weakening of that pillar is ominous and risks a future with fewer human rights than exist today.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The retreat from human rights is happening at two levels: through actors exiting treaties, and through changes in the societal expectations that those treaties both reflect and reinforce.<\/p>\n

Consider the developments of just this past year. In 2025, the United States<\/a>, Israel<\/a>, and Nicaragua<\/a> withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council, reducing the reach and legitimacy of one of the few multilateral bodies tasked with universal monitoring of rights.<\/p>\n

That same year, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Poland withdrew<\/a> from the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty, while Lithuania separately pulled out of the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions. Proposals<\/a> for other NATO members to take similar steps further highlight the erosion of norms against weapons that can indiscriminately harm civilians long after conflicts end. These shifts are coming as countries facing new security pressures increasingly prioritize military flexibility over humanitarian restrictions. The withdrawing states\u2014all of which border Russia or Belarus\u2014have cited the dangers they are confronting in the wake of the Kremlin\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has been rife with human rights abuses<\/a>. In light of the withdrawing countries\u2019 statements, it seems unlikely that any would have withdrawn had Russia not invaded Ukraine\u2014which underscores the snowball effect of diminishing postwar humanitarian norms, and why each violation matters.<\/p>\n

Norms may be intangible, but after 1945 countries codified many of them into binding commitments in an effort to build a better world with such norms at its core. Once these norms are weakened, as appears to be occurring now, they may never recover. This diminishes international law, emboldens perpetrators of human rights violations and war crimes, fuels cycles of impunity, and leaves civilians increasingly vulnerable. The cumulative effect is a weakened global system of accountability at precisely the moment when conflicts and authoritarian forces are on the rise.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sarah Wallace is a former program assistant for the GeoStrategy Initiative and Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.<\/p>\n

Out of the dataset, out of mind<\/p>\n

We know who we are because of our memories, our history, and our stories. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an important part of how people store information, as generative AI tools are woven into search engines, social media platforms, and everyday interfaces like virtual assistants. The data these generative AI tools draw on to answer our questions or summarize our emails shapes how people understand the world.<\/p>\n

The current generation of AI, however, is built on Western-centric datasets that are disproportionately produced, curated, and governed in North America and Western Europe, largely in English. Knowledge that is oral, community-held, locally archived, or produced outside these systems is far less likely to be captured. Optimized for volume rather than nuance, these systems put cultures that fall outside dominant data flows at risk.<\/p>\n

The phenomenon of cultural erasure can take two forms<\/a>: omission, where cultures fail to appear entirely, and simplification, where complex traditions are reduced to stereotypes.\u00a0The cases of small and developing states illustrate these risks most vividly. Much of the intangible heritage of the world\u2019s island states, for instance, remains under-digitized, preserved instead through oral storytelling, music, ritual, and collective memory. When generative AI encounters such cultures, it often only reflects what can be easily retrieved from training data. For example, AI-generated media depicting \u201cCaribbean culture\u201d tends to reproduce a narrow canon of beaches, rum, and steelpan. Missing are the complexities: linguistic diversity and multi-ethnic histories that define the region\u2019s melting-pot identity. Pre-AI search engines didn\u2019t return a complete, nuanced picture of these small cultures either. But generative AI can process so much data so quickly that the speed and scale of the threat have changed. The kind of responses AI tools offer can also create the impression of a more definitive answer. Where search engines returned a page of links or a variety of pictures for the user to browse and evaluate, generative AI products offer a more finished-looking result: complete sentences and paragraphs, or a single composite image. For the people living in these smaller states, AI-driven \u201cdata colonialism\u201d shapes how the world sees them<\/a> and, potentially, how they see themselves.<\/p>\n

If AI advances to a point where it becomes the default lens through which people encounter culture, then nations and groups underrepresented in AI training data risk losing authorship of their own stories. The version that survives may be the one defined by external markets. Indigenous groups, minority-language speakers, and marginalized communities around the world all face this threat.<\/p>\n

But small island states can use their position at the United Nations and elsewhere to elevate concerns around cultural data representation and press for international standards<\/a>, compelling actors who can shape the global AI ecosystem to take action. These nations can play a catalytic role in making cultural representation a priority for technology governance, even if the power to execute change lies elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Preventing cultural erasure means embedding diverse heritage into datasets, creating frameworks and metrics that assess cultural harm through an interdisciplinary lens, and ensuring AI governance treats cultural erasure as seriously as information manipulation or digital privacy. The question is not just whether AI models are accurate, but also whether they reinforce or erode the cultural foundations communities rely on. As AI increasingly shapes what the world finds, learns, and imagines, we must confront a pressing question: If a culture isn\u2019t in the dataset, can it survive the AI era?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dominique Ramsawak<\/a> is the associate director of communications at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Digital Forensic Research Lab. <\/p>\n

Whether you want it to or not<\/p>\n

The next tech disruption could be the human mind paired with cutting-edge neurotechnology. New kinds of neurotech create pathways for communications<\/a> between the human brain and external devices, some implanted in the brain. Recent developments in neurotech that don\u2019t require an implant\u2014and could eventually even be portable\u2014signal a future in which there could be ways to read someone\u2019s thoughts, with or without their permission.<\/p>\n

One such development is a semantic decoder that translates the brain\u2019s electromagnetic waves into a continuous stream of text<\/a> capturing what someone is thinking about, with varying degrees of precision. Currently, the decoder works with a trained model\u2014a version of the large language models powering chatbots\u2014using brain activity measured on a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scanner. Earlier versions required a user to lie down in an MRI machine for the better part of a day<\/a> to train the system. In 2025, researchers tested a version of the decoder that only requires an hour of training. Developments like these, coupled with investments expected to surpass four billion dollars<\/a> in 2025, indicate the potential for additional advances in the field. And if neurotech follows the trajectory that computers did\u2014the first computers took up an entire room; now billions of people carry one in their pocket\u2014it\u2019s possible there will be portable systems in the future.<\/p>\n

While the idea of something invading your thoughts might be alarming, there are both positive and negative potential applications of this technology. Any patient with a medical condition that makes it difficult or impossible for them to speak\u2014Parkinson\u2019s disease, aphasia, the aftereffects of a stroke\u2014could benefit. So could patients suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder who find it difficult to speak about their trauma.<\/p>\n

Ethical considerations must also be taken into account. While it\u2019s hard to predict exactly how this technology will evolve, laws protecting neural data privacy will be needed. In November 2025, UNESCO adopted the first global ethical framework<\/a> for neurotechnology, seeking to ensure that \u201cneurotechnological innovation benefits those in need without compromising mental privacy.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 1992, the physicist and theologian Ian Barbour observed that all technological advances are multifaceted in nature, acting as a liberator, a threat, and an instrument of power<\/a>. That framework will hold true for the neurotech transformations we\u2019ll experience in the years ahead.<\/p>\n

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