\n These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or
\n if it\u2019s another false start like a year ago.\n <\/p>\n
Many higher profile economic releases tell us more about the past than the future.<\/p>\n
The GDP report is one of these, because of the time it takes to be prepared and released.<\/p>\n
It\u2019ll be mid-March by the time we see the one covering the December quarter, by which point the events of October last year will be old news.<\/p>\n
Unemployment figures come out more quickly, but the labour market tends to be a lagging indicator.<\/p>\n
It is often strong heading into a recession, with unemployment only rising once the downturn has become entrenched.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a similar lag coming out of a downturn.<\/p>\n
When the recovery first takes hold, businesses first try to get more out of their existing workforce.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re cautious about taking on more permanent staff until they see more evidence things are getting better.<\/p>\n
The other week\u2019s unemployment figures were important, which is why they got a lot of attention.<\/p>\n
However, what they don\u2019t do is tell anything about where the economy is at right now, let alone where it\u2019s headed.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why I\u2019m looking forward to digesting all these earnings releases over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n
They\u2019ll tell us whether the confidence surveys, manufacturing indices and other more timely indicators are genuine signposts or head fakes.<\/p>\n
It won\u2019t necessarily be the numbers themselves that tell the story.<\/p>\n
These earnings reports will cover the second six months of the 2025 calendar year, so revenues and profits might still be subdued.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s the outlook commentaries I\u2019ll be watching, where boards and management teams comment on how the more recent trading period has been.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m hopeful many businesses have seen a pickup in activity in these first seven to eight weeks of the year.<\/p>\n
There\u2019ll be plenty to watch, with many listed corporates under the microscope and some real heavyweights set to announce results in the coming days.<\/p>\n
Contact Energy, a2 Milk and Auckland Airport are up this week, while Freightways is also one to watch closely.<\/p>\n
Not only is it a well-managed company, but it\u2019s a useful barometer of economic activity.<\/p>\n
Others that are sensitive to the state of the economy include Port of Tauranga and Fletcher Building, while Summerset might offer some clues to the path of the housing market.<\/p>\n
The listed property sector will also be in focus, with lower interest rates and a steady recovery likely putting tenants in a stronger position.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s had a soft start to 2026, but it trounced the broader market last year with a 12.7 per cent return.<\/p>\n
There\u2019ll be plenty to learn over the coming few weeks.<\/p>\n
While the results themselves might still be subdued, I\u2019d put more emphasis on the comments about how this year is shaping up so far.<\/p>\n
How are forward orders and booking shaping up? What does the past several weeks look like compared to 2025? Are any businesses confident enough to offer some early guidance for the year ahead?<\/p>\n
This is where investors should be looking for firm evidence of a recovery story, not in dated GDP release or reactive labour market statistics.<\/p>\n
If the domestic economy is genuinely turning a corner, we\u2019ll hear that loud and clear from management teams this month.<\/p>\n
Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature, and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it\u2019s another false start…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":187253,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[95,138,4568,219,3278,228,185,81692,32573,111,139,69,13979,6926,5652,223,61,25809],"class_list":{"0":"post-285678","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-and","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-earnings","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-facts","13":"tag-guide","14":"tag-is","15":"tag-lister","16":"tag-mark","17":"tag-new-zealand","18":"tag-newzealand","19":"tag-nz","20":"tag-nzx","21":"tag-season","22":"tag-signs","23":"tag-the","24":"tag-to","25":"tag-turning"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/187253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}