{"id":285814,"date":"2026-02-15T21:54:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T21:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/285814\/"},"modified":"2026-02-15T21:54:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T21:54:11","slug":"prediction-this-ai-stock-will-recover-faster-than-microsoft-after-the-sell-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/285814\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction: This AI Stock Will Recover Faster Than Microsoft After the Sell-Off"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Most investors are overlooking a critical detail about the way this semiconductor company&#8217;s business works.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been a tough past few months for owners of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Microsoft, for instance, is down more than 20% from its October peak. These steep sell-offs are part of a bigger philosophical indictment of the amount of money that big technology companies are spending on AI, and how little of a return many of them are seeing yet.<\/p>\n<p>Not every one of these AI names deserves the pullback they&#8217;ve recently experienced, though. One name in particular is likely to bounce back faster than Microsoft shares &#8212; or any other recently weak tickers &#8212; once more investors realize this. That name is Arm Holdings (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/quote\/nasdaq\/arm\/\" class=\"font-bold hover:underline\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ARM<\/a> +2.39%).<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Computer processors being made in a chip foundry.\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"880\" height=\"587\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"h-auto max-w-full rounded object-contain\" style=\"color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1771192451_119_.jpeg\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n<p>Not actually a chipmaker<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s usually lumped in with the likes of Nvidia, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices. These semiconductor companies are in the same basic business.<\/p>\n<p>Arm isn&#8217;t actually a chipmaker &#8212; at least, not yet. It&#8217;s a designer of high-performance processors and their corresponding chipsets, known for their amazing power efficiency. That&#8217;s why Amazon, Alphabet&#8217;s Google, and Apple\u00a0have all begun leaning on Arm&#8217;s designs more and more lately. Most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/stock-market\/market-sectors\/information-technology\/ai-stocks\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">artificial intelligence<\/a> computing work consumes a great deal of electricity. Minimizing this power consumption is a big deal.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s not quite the reason Arm Holdings shares are poised to recover sooner and more than Microsoft&#8217;s and other AI stocks. The key here is the company&#8217;s business model.<\/p>\n<p>How Arm makes money<\/p>\n<p>Unlike Intel, Nvidia, and others, the bulk of Arm&#8217;s revenue largely comes in the form of licensing fees and royalties. Tech companies pay an upfront licensing fee for the right to make chips with Arm&#8217;s intellectual property, and then pay a royalty based on the number of these chips manufactured, sold, or monetized in one way or another. Lately, a little over half of the company&#8217;s top line has been made up of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/02\/07\/1-reason-why-arm-holdings-stock-could-soar\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">royalty revenue<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The detail that isn&#8217;t evident yet &#8212; but soon will be &#8212; is the number and scope of licensing agreements that haven&#8217;t yet fully begun producing their corresponding royalties. For instance, although Amazon has long relied on Arm&#8217;s chip architecture for its Graviton data center processors, this relationship continues to deepen, with the Graviton 5 unveiled late last year becoming even more of a workhorse for Amazon Web Services.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Arm Holdings Stock Quote\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"64\" height=\"64\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"w-full flex-none object-contain\" style=\"color:transparent\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1771192451_398_.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s Change<\/p>\n<p>(2.39%) $2.92<\/p>\n<p>Current Price<\/p>\n<p>$125.11<\/p>\n<p>Key Data Points<\/p>\n<p>Market Cap<\/p>\n<p>$133B<\/p>\n<p>Day&#8217;s Range<\/p>\n<p>$119.95 &#8211; $127.41<\/p>\n<p>52wk Range<\/p>\n<p>$80.00 &#8211; $183.16<\/p>\n<p>Volume<\/p>\n<p>206K<\/p>\n<p>Avg Vol<\/p>\n<p>5.7M<\/p>\n<p>Gross Margin<\/p>\n<p>94.84%<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not just Amazon, however. Google&#8217;s Tensor Processing Units, purpose-built for artificial intelligence, are also Arm-based. While technically a couple of years old now, the company&#8217;s usage of Arm-designed silicon is now exploding. Ditto for Apple, which has only entered the modern AI race in earnest within the past year or so, largely relying on Arm&#8217;s architecture to make it happen.\u00a0Meta Platforms also now uses Arm Holdings&#8217; designs in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/02\/10\/datacenter-reit-triple-money-ai-infrastructure\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">data centers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Although the amounts, timeframes, and other details of these deals are confidential and likely at least a little bit different than any of the others, the royalty timeframes are typically measured in years.<\/p>\n<p>Realization on the radar<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s what investors may largely be missing here.<\/p>\n<p>Arm&#8217;s stock tumbled after posting disappointing third-quarter licensing numbers, and Q4 guidance fell short of expectations. But these results don&#8217;t yet fully reflect all the IP licensing agreements that Arm has yet to be paid for. Nor do they reflect much of the royalty revenue that&#8217;s already been arranged but isn&#8217;t yet being booked. Its customers are already committed. Their payments should really start flowing this year and increase persistently for several more years.<\/p>\n<p>While analysts only expect top-line growth of 7% for fiscal 2026 ending in March, they&#8217;re also looking for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/02\/10\/arm-stock-rises-on-accelerating-ai-revenue-but-a\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">revenue growth<\/a> of more than 23% in the year beginning thereafter.<\/p>\n<p>Investors should start connecting these dots sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Most investors are overlooking a critical detail about the way this semiconductor company&#8217;s business works. It&#8217;s been a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":285815,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[365,363,364,111,139,69,145],"class_list":{"0":"post-285814","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-new-zealand","12":"tag-newzealand","13":"tag-nz","14":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/285815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}