\n The steepest deficit occurred in September 2025, when production dropped to 1.39 million barrels per day, around 110,000 barrels below the quota. Over 30 days, that gap amounted to 3.3 million barrels. By comparison, January 2025 saw output of 1.54 million barrels per day, exceeding the ceiling by approximately 40,000 barrels per day.\n <\/p>\n
Why Output, Not Oil Prices, Is Nigeria\u2019s Real Fiscal Risk<\/p>\n
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\n Cumulatively, nine months of underperformance in 2025 produced a gross shortfall of 18.7 million barrels. After adjusting for modest surpluses earlier in the year, the net deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.\n <\/p>\n
\n In January 2026, an additional 1.27 million barrels were added to the tally, bringing the 13-month shortfall to 18.12 million barrels.\n <\/p>\n
\n The revenue gap is striking even against a backdrop of strong headline earnings. Nigeria produced about 530.41 million barrels of crude in 2025, generating an estimated N55.5 trillion in gross revenue at the same average price and exchange rate assumptions.\n <\/p>\n
\n Analysts caution, however, that this figure reflects gross inflows and does not account for production costs, joint-venture cash calls, production-sharing-contract recoveries, domestic supply obligations, or oil theft.\n <\/p>\n
\n For policymakers in Abuja, the concern is less about prices and more about volumes. Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare argued that \u201cmeeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n He said that improved security around oil assets, fewer operational disruptions, faster regulatory approvals, and a stable operating environment were essential to enable existing fields to operate at capacity. Supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling, alongside policy consistency, would also be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels.\n <\/p>\n
Budget Benchmarks Under Pressure as OPEC Misses Persist<\/p>\n
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\n According to Iledare, Nigeria earned roughly N55tn from crude in 2025, up from about N50tn in 2024, yet still below federal projections. He added that the government had planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed closer to 599.6 million barrels, leaving about 167 million barrels unrealised.\n <\/p>\n
\n Segun Ajibola, a professor of economics, noted that crude oil output depends on factors not entirely within the government’s control. These include technical cooperation among joint venture partners, developments in the global oil market, and environmental conditions. He also pointed to controversies surrounding the state oil company, which have complicated reform efforts.\n <\/p>\n