{"id":291040,"date":"2026-02-19T04:19:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T04:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/291040\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T04:19:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T04:19:07","slug":"dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-changes-his-tune-sees-4-gdp-growth-by-2030-nvidia-nasdaqnvda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/291040\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Dr. Doom&#8217; Nouriel Roubini Changes His Tune, Sees 4% GDP Growth By 2030 &#8211; NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"block core-block\">Nouriel Roubini, the economist who called the 2008 financial crisis and spent the next decade warning anyone who\u2019d listen about stagflation and collapse, now sees U.S. GDP approaching 4% by end of the decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">The driver isn\u2019t fiscal stimulus or deregulation. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Roubini <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2026-02-18\/roubini-sees-close-to-4-us-growth-by-end-of-the-decade-video?srnd=homepage-europe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">told<\/a> Bloomberg on Tuesday that it\u2019s a technology revolution spanning AI, robotics, quantum computing, biomedical research and space exploration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">He estimates those productivity gains could lift U.S. potential growth by 200 basis points, against just 50 basis points of drag from tariffs and immigration policy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">\u201cTech trumps tariffs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction Markets Aren\u2019t So Sure<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">The \u201cUS recession by end of 2026\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-recession-by-end-of-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Polymarket<\/a> currently prices a 24% chance of recession on $222,000 in volume\u2014a meaningful chunk of money saying Roubini\u2019s 4% dream hits a wall before it gets started.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">On Kalshi, the GDP growth in 2026 market gives roughly 6% probability to full-year growth extending past 4%. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Back to Polymarket, the contract for GDP growth in Q1 2026, has 2-2.5% at 34%, and 38% of over 3.5%, giving Roubini\u2019s optimistic predictions a glimmer of hope. <\/p>\n<p>Marx Was Right, Says Roubini<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">However, Roubini&#8217;s optimism comes with a dark structural caveat. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Roubini invoked Karl Marx to explain what happens next.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">As AI and automation shrink labor\u2019s share of income, he argues, workers lose the purchasing power to buy what the economy produces. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Aggregate demand collapses from within.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Roubini expects Universal Basic Income to scale significantly over the coming decades as governments exhaust every other option for managing permanent structural unemployment. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Redistribute from the winners to the losers, or face the consequences. <\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">\u201cThe alternative is a revolution,\u201d Roubini said.<\/p>\n<p>Why Traders Should Care<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">If the man formerly known as Dr. Doom is right, all of that may be forgotten quickly. A 2% productivity boom more than justifies all the capex and makes the current selloff look like a buying opportunity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"block core-block\">Image: Shutterstock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nouriel Roubini, the economist who called the 2008 financial crisis and spent the next decade warning anyone who\u2019d&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":291041,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,22530,156768,12224,219,111,139,69,12223,12227],"class_list":{"0":"post-291040","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-category-markets","10":"tag-category-prediction-markets","11":"tag-cms-wordpress","12":"tag-economy","13":"tag-new-zealand","14":"tag-newzealand","15":"tag-nz","16":"tag-pageisbzpro-bz","17":"tag-symbol-nvda"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=291040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291040\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/291041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=291040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=291040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=291040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}