{"id":292121,"date":"2026-02-19T18:44:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T18:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/292121\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T18:44:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T18:44:07","slug":"is-tim-wilson-an-inflation-nutter-why-the-new-shadow-treasurers-rba-comments-are-making-waves-australian-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/292121\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Tim Wilson an \u2018inflation nutter\u2019? Why the new shadow treasurer\u2019s RBA comments are making waves | Australian economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">There was good news on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Another solid month of jobs growth left the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% in January.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The impressive resilience of Australia\u2019s jobs market has been the positive story of the post-pandemic economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We have come out the other side of the global health crisis and a once-in-a-generation inflationary event with a jobless rate that has tracked consistently one percentage point below where it was through the dog days of the late 2010s.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">There has never been a higher share of us in the workforce.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For so many households, this has been the difference between experiencing cost-of-living pressures and suffering a full-blown crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But is the jobs market too good?<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This was essentially the argument, in the crudest terms, being made by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/tim-wilson\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tim Wilson<\/a> within 48 hours of being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/feb\/17\/nationals-tim-wilson-named-shadow-treasurer-and-xxxxxx-in-angus-taylors-new-frontbench\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">appointed as the new shadow treasurer<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Liberal MP, who scraped through in the last election <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/may\/31\/tim-wilson-takes-back-victorian-seat-of-goldstein-from-zoe-daniel-by-175-votes-recount-confirms\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">by the skin of his teeth<\/a>, is out talking to the press and making waves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/email-newsletters?CMP=copyembed&amp;CMP=emailbutton\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sign up: AU Breaking News email<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">What caught many people\u2019s attention were his remarks, reported in the Nine newspapers, that the Coalition was prepared to \u201creview\u201d the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s 80-year-old \u201cdual mandate\u201d of pursuing both low and stable inflation and full employment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Wilson reckons the RBA has been too soft on inflation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">His suggestion is that the central bank should have kept rates higher for longer to make sure inflation stayed under control in 2025, even if that meant a weaker economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jim Chalmers was quick out of the gates on Thursday morning with a media release headlined \u201cTim Wilson\u2019s plan for higher unemployment\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">After welcoming the latest jobs data, the ACTU secretary, Sally McManus, also went on the attack.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIt\u2019s disgraceful that Tim Wilson\u2019s first economic policy is to say that more Australian workers should be unemployed,\u201d McManus said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Wilson is not the first conservative politician to say their country\u2019s central bank should be solely focused on getting inflation under control.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For example, Donald Trump\u2019s vice-president in his first term, Mike Pence, was campaigning on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-16\/fed-s-jobs-mandate-under-fire-as-mike-pence-wants-bank-to-fight-inflation-only\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ditching the employment part<\/a> of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s dual mandate as recently as 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But it\u2019s an odd line to be pursuing as the Liberals try to win back votes from the populist right wing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Mervyn King, the former head of the Bank of England, in 1997 branded as \u201cinflation nutters\u201d those who said monetary policy should be set regardless of the economic fallout.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/feb\/19\/tim-wilson-walks-back-suggestion-liberals-would-rethink-rba-full-employment-mandate\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">interview with Guardian Australia\u2019s Dan Jervis-Bardy<\/a> on Thursday, Wilson clarified that he \u201ccertainly supports the dual mandate\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cBut the question is, is the RBA getting that dual mandate right? They have got it wrong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe\u2019ve ended up in a situation where we\u2019ve got inflation that has been led to be out of control. They\u2019ve clearly misread inflation, so they\u2019re clearly not putting enough emphasis on inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jonathan Kearns, the chief economist at Challenger and a former senior RBA official, says a central bank with an employment and inflation mandate is uncontroversial, and backed by history and research.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe have the dual mandate because monetary policy has an impact on employment as well as inflation. You want to target inflation, subject to avoiding significant costs on employment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Luci Ellis, Westpac\u2019s chief economist and a former head of the central bank\u2019s economics department, says \u201cit\u2019s long been understood that even a central bank with only an inflation mandate would care about employment\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But Kearns says there is evidence that the RBA made an error of judgment last year by cutting interest rates three times, only to have to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/feb\/03\/a-hot-economy-rbas-rate-hike-justification-is-hard-to-swallow-for-australians-struggling-with-cost-of-living-crisis\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">quickly reverse course<\/a> after inflation ended 2025 back above 3%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cHow you weigh inflation and employment is going to influence the path of monetary policy,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But he fundamentally disagrees that the RBA is now structurally too focused on jobs over price stability.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cA lot of what we might call policy errors have been more about judgment, not an inappropriate balance of inflation versus employment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Ellis goes further.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">She says the change to the RBA\u2019s agreement with the Albanese government on the conduct of monetary policy introduced a stricter interpretation of achieving the inflation goals by explicitly targeting the midpoint of the 2-3% target range.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cMy read on their [the RBA\u2019s] policy decisions and rhetoric since the new statement is that, if anything, they have become even more focused on tiny deviations in the inflation trajectory.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Whether Wilson, in his heart of hearts, is an \u201cinflation nutter\u201d will remain an open question \u2013 and one his political opponents will be keen to ask every chance they get.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\"> Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia\u2019s economics editor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There was good news on Thursday. Another solid month of jobs growth left the unemployment rate steady at&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":292122,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":{"0":"post-292121","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-new-zealand","11":"tag-newzealand","12":"tag-nz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=292121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292121\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/292122"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=292121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=292121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=292121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}