{"id":30342,"date":"2025-09-18T22:02:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T22:02:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/30342\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T22:02:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T22:02:07","slug":"the-us-federal-reserves-rate-cut-and-the-nz-markets-big-bounce-stock-takes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/30342\/","title":{"rendered":"The US Federal Reserve\u2019s rate cut and the NZ market\u2019s big bounce \u2013 Stock Takes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell described the bank\u2019s move as a \u201crisk management cut\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cPowell is saying employment and inflation risks are now more in balance as the job market is starting to cool off in the US,\u201d Salt Funds managing director Matt Goodson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cCautiously dovish is probably the best way to put it, as opposed to a \u2018damn the torpedoes, let\u2019s run the economy hot\u2019 type approach, which is clearly what Trump was hoping for,\u201d Goodson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe Fed\u2019s in a very tough position here because they\u2019ve got a dual mandate \u2013 unemployment and inflation \u2013 and unemployment\u2019s rising and inflation\u2019s ticking up a little bit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThey\u2019re in a tough place thanks to the stagflationary policies in the US.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Market off its lows<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">While the local sharemarket has been left in the dust by the world\u2019s major equities markets, it has nevertheless bounced strongly this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The S&amp;P\/NZX 50 index sits at around 13,200, up 12% from its April low point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The Reserve Bank cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3% on August 20 and signalled the likelihood that more cuts would follow. <\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Interest rate market pricing points to the OCR hitting 2.5% by next February.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe change in Reserve Bank policy stance has been very helpful to the market,\u201d Goodson said.<\/p>\n<p>More positives than negatives?<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Harbour Asset Management said there were more positives than negatives to be taken from the latest reporting season for June balance date stocks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The fund manager said the season was mixed at best, with results generally coming in below expectations and future forecast earnings continuing to be reduced.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cEarnings expectations in aggregate were trimmed mainly due to lower sales\/revenue expectations,\u201d Harbour said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cCosts were relatively stable, although earnings forecasts were reduced in some cases due to rising depreciation resulting from higher capital expenditure. Companies with strong pricing power held up well.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWhile earnings forecasts were reduced, there were more positive company outlook statements than negative,\u201d Harbour said.<\/p>\n<p>Craigs buys Somerset Smith<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Craigs Investment Partners has bought Hawke\u2019s Bay wealth management firm Somerset Smith \u2013 continuing a trend of consolidation in wealth management.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The agreement brings together nearly a century of financial stewardship from Somerset Smith with the depth and scale of Craigs\u2019 expertise, the company said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Craigs\u2019 chief executive Simon Tong said the acquisition was an important step towards realising the company\u2019s growth ambitions and made sense for the firm nationally and regionally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Last month, Alvarium (NZ) Wealth Management Holdings bought Salt Funds Management for an undisclosed sum. <\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The transaction increased Alvarium\u2019s total assets under advice to more than $4.3 billion, New Zealand-owned Alvarium said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">In July, Forsyth Barr said it had entered into an agreement with Sydney-based private equity firm Mercury Capital, which proposed to buy a stake in the company from existing shareholders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Forsyth Barr recently acquired Hobson Wealth Partners, further expanding its adviser network and client base.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">In June, Australian funds manager and broker Shaw and Partners said it had bought a 75% stake in $7b of funds under management by Auckland-based Investment Services Group, which includes Devon Funds.<\/p>\n<p>Current account deficit improves<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">New Zealand\u2019s seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed by $702 million to $3.4b in the June 2025 quarter, mainly because of Kiwis earning more from their investments overseas, Stats NZ said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">It was the smallest deficit since a $3.1b one in the June 2021 quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe smaller current account deficit was due to a $1b narrowing of the primary income deficit,\u201d international accounts spokeswoman Viki Ward said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThis was mainly due to New Zealand investors earning more from their investments abroad.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>NZGIF\u2019s selldown<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">New Zealand Green Investment Finance (NZGIF), the Government\u2019s climate investment fund, is making progress in selling down its investments after an edict from the coalition to wind up the scheme.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">This week the fund exited its investment in electric vehicle finance and leasing company Carbn after the latter\u2019s management agreed to a buyout backed by financier Private Capital Group.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">NZGIF had owned 94.1% of Carbn with its website showing it had made a $42.4m hybrid investment in the company, most of which was debt funding. NZGIF invested $5.8m into buying shares in Carbn in October 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Mobility Holdings, whose directors are Carbn co-founders Shaun Drylie and David Simpson, now owns 95% of the company with 5% owned by New Zealand Private Capital Management.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Drylie is the former CEO of SBS Bank and also previously worked for Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its New Zealand subsidiary ASB. Simpson is an Invercargill-based businessman.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Carbn\u2019s clients include ASB, the University of Waikato, Christchurch City Council and hundreds of other smaller businesses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The company is also on the All-of-Government panel, enabling central and local government agencies to reduce fleet costs and greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">It owns Zilch Car-Sharing and Sustainable Fleet Financing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Drylie said the new owners had taken on the debt previously held by NZGIF but wouldn\u2019t comment on how much the management team had paid to buy back the business.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe purchase arrangements are confidential.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Out of NZGIF\u2019s total lending of $394.8m it has been paid back $217.5m. An NZGIF spokeswoman this week said it was still working through its final net position.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The investment fund was set up by former Climate Change Minister James Shaw.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">It came under fire earlier this year for backing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/solar-power-company-solarzero-limited-placed-into-liquidation\/QN3RWMACORGK5DPJL5E3LUSIPE\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/solar-power-company-solarzero-limited-placed-into-liquidation\/QN3RWMACORGK5DPJL5E3LUSIPE\/\" target=\"_blank\">SolarZero shortly before the solar energy company was liquidated.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">The Government announced in April the fund would stop making new investments and wind down the portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>Oceania focus<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Retirement village and aged care firm Oceania Healthcare\u2019s (OCA) recent investor day focused on transparency, sales execution and cash discipline, Forsyth Barr said in a note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThat said, the handful of numbers provided were only average: enough to underpin the recent modest recovery in the share price, but not enough to create a real buzz on the day,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cAll in all, we view the day as acceptable rather than exceptional. <\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe positive is that sales applications have improved dramatically \u2013 what OCA has changed appears to be working \u2013 but we will likely have to wait until its 2026 result to see this reflected in reported sales growth,\u201d the broker said.<\/p>\n<p>Goodbye US quarterly reports?<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">US President Donald Trump has called for US companies to stop reporting quarterly results, adding that a shift to publishing figures twice a year will save them cash and allow executives to focus on their businesses, the Financial Times reports.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Trump issued his call in a post on his Truth Social network on Monday, contrasting standard practice in the US with what he depicted as China\u2019s more long-term approach. <\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Most publicly listed US companies are required to file quarterly and annual financial filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n<p class=\"kqzEwDUUT\" style=\"display:none\">Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell described the bank\u2019s move as a \u201crisk management cut\u201d. \u201cPowell is saying employment&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29513,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[95,8834,29306,138,3588,528,14051,1644,23500,12469,178,220,2683,111,139,69,19257,7676,25344,781,29307,1120,223,3040],"class_list":["post-30342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-and","tag-big","tag-bounce","tag-business","tag-cut","tag-far","tag-federal","tag-financial","tag-impact","tag-interest","tag-longawaited","tag-markets","tag-move","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-rate","tag-rates","tag-reserves","tag-stock","tag-subdued","tag-takes","tag-the","tag-us"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30342\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}