![\"Students](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/4KCGQM3_taylor_flowe_4nKOEAQaTgA_unsplash_jpg\")
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\nThe numbers were based on a “medium” estimate of teacher supply and demand.
\nPhoto: Unsplash\/ Taylor Flowe\n<\/p>\n
Education Ministry figures show the shortage of secondary school teachers is much worse than previously forecast.<\/p>\n
The ministry today forecast a shortfall of 1220 secondary teachers this year and next, up from last year’s projection of 880.<\/p>\n
The forecast showed the shortage was likely to persist into at least 2028 when a shortfall of 190 teachers was likely.<\/p>\n
The numbers were based on a “medium” estimate of teacher supply and demand.<\/p>\n
They showed this year would be the worst for secondary teacher supply, with a potential shortage of 710 teachers.<\/p>\n
“With 491 secondary schools across New Zealand, the medium scenario equates to a shortfall of more than one teacher per school on average,” the ministry’s report said.<\/p>\n
The forecast showed primary schools had reached a surplus of teachers sooner than expected.<\/p>\n
Their previously-forecast shortage for this year was now expected to be a surplus of 530 teachers with ongoing surpluses in successive years.<\/p>\n
However, primary schools in Taranaki, Northland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty were expected to face persistent shortages over the next three years, though they should ease as enrolments declined.<\/p>\n
Among secondary schools, parts of Auckland, Hawke’s Bay and Otago faced “persistent and significant shortage as demand outpaces supply”, the ministry’s report said.<\/p>\n
It said roll growth and policy changes grew demand for secondary teachers by 1876 teachers between 2024 and 2025, but that would ease to a 37-teacher increase in demand this year.<\/p>\n
The report said between 674-1005 secondary teachers were expected to join the workforce in 2026 as a result of Education Ministry recruitment initiatives.<\/p>\n
It said some subjects and locations would face continued shortages but growing the number of teachers overall was the top priority.<\/p>\n
“Growing the secondary teacher workforce will continue to be a priority – particularly in shortage subjects, before investing in distribution-based initiatives,” the report said.<\/p>\n
“Without greater supply at the national level, shortages will occur that distributional initiatives will not effectively be able to address.”<\/p>\n
The report said there were more primary school teachers working in schools than any time since 2004.<\/p>\n