According to documents released to the Herald under the Official Information Act, Nicola Willis planned to hold a meeting with members of Tesco\u2019s executive team following the RFI process.<\/p>\n
A planned meeting with UK supermarket Tesco did not take place.<\/p>\n
The first mention of a planned meeting between Willis, ministry officials and Tesco representatives was on May 8, 2025. Another meeting date with Foodstuffs South Island was also mentioned in this document for May 9, 2025.<\/p>\n
The meeting that was set down for June 19 was referred to three times in separate briefing documents to Willis, but was not detailed in later documents.<\/p>\n
No record of the meeting is found in Willis\u2019 official ministerial diary either.<\/p>\n
In response to questions posed to the minister, a spokesperson said a planned meeting with Tesco did not go ahead \u201cdue to personnel changes at Tesco\u201d, and the company had \u201dopted not to participate in the process”.<\/p>\n
Founded in 1919, Tesco is one of the world\u2019s largest retailers, with nearly 5000 stores across the UK, Czechia, Ireland, Slovakia, the Isle of Man and Hungary.<\/p>\n
In its latest financial result, Tesco reported total revenue of \u00a363.6 billion ($144b) and a market share in the UK of 28.3%.<\/p>\n
Tesco has been approached for comment.<\/p>\n
Wishful thinking<\/p>\n
Semi-retired consultant and grocery advocate Ernie Newman said he had never believed the premise that new entrants could be coaxed into the New Zealand market.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo matter how big they may be, they\u2019re going to have to make a massive investment and sustain years and years of losses in order to somehow, sometime, get into a profitable situation,\u201d Newman said.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy argument all along is that we don\u2019t need more competitors, we don\u2019t need new entry, we just need to break up the consolidation of ownership that we\u2019ve somehow got.\u201d<\/p>\n
Newman referenced other experts who had said a new entrant would need somewhere between 120 and 150 new stores across New Zealand, something Newman believes a business case couldn\u2019t be built for.<\/p>\n
He agreed it could be a reason Tesco didn\u2019t go ahead with further meetings.<\/p>\n
As for whether Willis and the Government had been successful in taking on the supermarket duopoly, Newman was succinct. <\/p>\n
\u201cNo. I don\u2019t doubt that Nicola Willis has been going around through her officials and talking to a lot of potential entrants. But if they\u2019re all saying no, then she needs to come out and say that, instead of acting as if she\u2019s hoping this whole thing will go away.<\/p>\n
\u201cI suspect that there is the expertise within the Commerce Commission to move on some kind of break-up, but they need the Government support to do that, and at this stage the Government has run out of time to do so before the election.\u201d<\/p>\n
Attempts quashed<\/p>\n
While Tesco was the first major prospective supermarket player planning to meet with the Government, it is not the only one officials tried to contact.<\/p>\n
Two other supermarket giants, Aldi and Lidl, were invited to participate in the RFI process but neither opted to do so. <\/p>\n
Aldi is a German-founded, global discount supermarket chain with over 12,000 stores across its two main entities, Aldi Nord and Aldi S\u00fcd, and global revenue of roughly \u20ac110b ($216b).<\/p>\n
The chain has a combined global presence that spans Europe, China, the US and Australia, where it holds approximately 11% of the market with roughly 600 stores.<\/p>\n
Lidl is the largest of the three grocers that Willis planned to meet, operating around 12,600 stores across Europe, the US and Asia, and reporting roughly \u20ac130b in revenue.<\/p>\n
Willis acknowledged in August 2025 that Lidl and Aldi had chosen not to participate in the RFI, calling it \u201cdisappointing\u201d, but she hoped changes under the fast-track legislation would encourage them to take a more serious look.<\/p>\n
According to the documents released, officials attempted to facilitate meetings with both companies, to no avail.<\/p>\n
Aldi has confirmed to the Herald that it \u201ccurrently has no plans to expand into New Zealand\u201d.<\/p>\n
Lidl has been approached for comment.<\/p>\n
Other findings<\/p>\n
Ministry officials noted that 24 groups responded in writing to the RFI, albeit all responses came just before the initial deadline.<\/p>\n
Just four days before submissions for the RFI closed on May 12, the Government had received just three responses.<\/p>\n
The final responses included five prospective new competitors, 10 existing grocery competitors, three major retailers and their advisers, two advocacy groups (including public advocacy group Northelia) and three technology platform companies.<\/p>\n
All names of the companies that submitted were redacted for commercial reasons, but Foodstuffs North and South Island, Woolworths and online grocer Paddock to Pantry are known submitters.<\/p>\n
Costco Westgate is the chain’s first New Zealand location, with a second store set to be built in Drury.<\/p>\n
Costco and The Warehouse also took part, and are mentioned several times in the official documents, being described as companies with \u201cthe best potential to be nationwide competitors quickly\u201d.<\/p>\n
Costco is mentioned nine times in a briefing from May 9, with officials noting how the company had already gained 4% market share in Auckland since opening in 2022.<\/p>\n