{"id":306371,"date":"2026-02-28T10:56:10","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T10:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/306371\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T10:56:10","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T10:56:10","slug":"a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/306371\/","title":{"rendered":"A New Space Race Could Turn Our Atmosphere Into A \u2018Crematorium For Satellites\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"The<\/a>
\nSaturday, 28 February 2026, 8:04 pm
Article: The Conversation<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Laura
\nRevell<\/a>, University
\nof Canterbury<\/a>; Michele
\nBannister<\/a>, University
\nof Canterbury<\/a>, and Samantha
\nLawler<\/a>, University
\nof Regina<\/a><\/p>\n

When we look up at the
\nnight sky and see a satellite glide past, we might not
\nconsider climate change or the ozone layer.<\/p>\n

Space
\nmay feel separate from the environmental systems that
\nsustain life on Earth. But increasingly, the way we build,
\nlaunch and dispose of satellites is starting to change
\nthat.<\/p>\n

Over the past few years, the number of
\nsatellite launches has skyrocketed<\/a>.
\nThere are now nearly
\n15,000 active satellites<\/a> in orbit around the Earth, most
\nof them part of \u201cmega-constellations\u201d in which each
\nsatellite has a service life of only a few
\nyears.<\/p>\n

New satellites must be quickly launched as
\nreplacements. To avoid leaving old, dead satellites in
\nEarth\u2019s already-crowded low orbits, most satellite
\noperators deliberately de-orbit them into Earth\u2019s upper
\natmosphere.<\/p>\n

Advertisement – scroll to continue reading<\/p>\n

Here, they burn up or break apart into
\nsmaller pieces: a process known as \u201cdemisability\u201d. In
\neffect, satellites have become part of throwaway
\nculture.<\/p>\n

That approach is now being taken to a
\nvastly larger scale. We are concerned about the implications
\nfor Earth\u2019s climate and atmosphere.<\/p>\n

A sleeper
\nrisk for our climate and ozone layer<\/p>\n

Last month,
\nSpaceX applied<\/a>
\nto the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for
\npermission to launch one million more satellites for untested<\/a> \u201cAI data
\ncentres\u201d.<\/p>\n

That sheer number isn\u2019t the only
\nissue. SpaceX\u2019s Starlink
\nV2 \u201cmini\u201d satellites<\/a> happen to weigh about 800
\nkilograms (kg) \u2013 roughly the mass of a small car \u2013 with
\nlater versions expected to reach around 1,250 kg. The
\nplanned V3 satellites are
\nlarger still<\/a>, comparable in scale to a Boeing 737
\nairliner.<\/p>\n

Rocket launches already contribute to
\nclimate change and ozone
\ndepletion<\/a>. Scaling them up to deploy a million
\naircraft-sized satellites would push upper-atmosphere
\nheating and ozone loss far
\nbeyond previous estimates<\/a>, with the steady burn-up of
\ndead satellites compounding the impacts.<\/p>\n

This comes
\nas burnt satellite dust is already being found in the
\natmosphere. In 2023, scientists studying aerosols in the
\nupper atmosphere found
\nmetals from re-entering spacecraft<\/a>. Just recently, lithium
\nhas been detected<\/a> from the uncontrolled re-entry of a
\nFalcon 9 rocket.<\/p>\n

This is just a fraction of what is
\nto come if planned megaconstellations go ahead \u2013 and
\nSpaceX is far from the only player. Other operators
\nworldwide have already asked for a
\ncombined total of over one million
\nsatellites<\/a>.<\/p>\n

All the while, the full
\nenvironmental consequences remain poorly understood because
\nsatellite builders rarely disclose what their spacecraft are
\nmade of.<\/p>\n

Scientists assume a large fraction is aluminium<\/a>,
\nwhich burns up into alumina particles, but the exact mix of
\nmaterials \u2013 and the size of the particles produced \u2013
\nremains poorly constrained.<\/p>\n

But we know the very
\nsmallest particles, finer than a human hair, can stay
\nsuspended in the atmosphere for years, contributing<\/a>
\nto ozone depletion and climate change.<\/p>\n

Following
\nsimilar assumptions to a previous
\nstudy<\/a>, we estimate that a million satellites could mean
\nthat a teragram (one billion kgs) of alumina accumulates in
\nthe upper atmosphere \u2013 enough, alongside launch emissions,
\nto significantly alter atmospheric chemistry and heating in
\ndramatic ways we do not yet understand.<\/p>\n

There is no
\npublic mandate for a single company in one country to make
\nchanges on that scale to the planet\u2019s
\natmosphere.<\/p>\n

The consequences are not confined to
\nthe atmosphere. Not all re-entering satellites burn up;
\ndebris is already
\nhitting the ground<\/a> and the chance of a casualty from
\nmegaconstellation re-entries is now about 40% per five-year
\ncycle<\/a> \u2013 rising for both people and aircraft<\/a>
\nas more satellites are added to orbit.<\/p>\n

\"Five person-sized
These
\npieces of shredded debris, which came from an expendable
\ntrunk module attached to one of SpaceX\u2019s Dragon
\nspacecraft, fell on farmland in Saskatchewan, Canada, in
\nApril 2024.
Samantha
\nLawler, CC
\nBY-NC<\/a><\/p>\n

In space, the picture is no less stark: the
\nOuter Space Institute\u2019s CRASH
\nClock<\/a> suggests a collision would occur within 3.8 days
\nif satellites stopped avoiding each other.<\/p>\n

Many
\nexperts agree<\/a>
\nwe are in the early stages of the Kessler
\nSyndrome<\/a>: a cascading chain reaction of collisions that
\nmultiplies space debris.<\/p>\n

Our skies are not a
\ndumping ground<\/p>\n

Our night sky, especially cherished
\nin
\nNew Zealand<\/a>, is one of the few things everyone on Earth
\nstill shares.<\/p>\n

According to simulations<\/a>
\nbuilt by astronomers, constellations on the scale proposed
\nby SpaceX would fill the sky with many thousands of
\nsatellites visible to the naked eye anywhere on Earth.
\nEventually, there could be more visible satellites than visible
\nstars<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For scientists, observing the deaths
\nof stars<\/a> and searching for new
\nplanets<\/a> would become much harder. Stargazing,
\nastrotourism and cultural
\nastronomy<\/a> would similarly be disrupted
\nworldwide.<\/p>\n

All of this means the FCC\u2019s ruling on
\nthe SpaceX proposal<\/a>,
\nnow open
\nto public submissions<\/a>, could affect everyone \u2013 whether
\nthrough changes to the atmosphere, growing collision risks
\nin orbit or the loss of an unspoilt night sky.<\/p>\n

One
\nsolution being discussed is to dispose of dead satellites in
\norbits away from Earth. But this would require much more
\nfuel per satellite to escape Earth\u2019s gravity, increasing
\nboth payload and the environmental impact of rocket
\nlaunches. Some debris would still
\nreturn to Earth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With SpaceX and others
\nplanning rapid expansion, global regulation is needed: in an
\nuncapped system, regulating one firm just shifts the problem
\nelsewhere. As the largest operator, SpaceX is best placed to
\nlead on an environmentally sustainable solution, just as Du
\nPont did with phasing
\nout CFCs<\/a> in the 1980s.<\/p>\n

A first step is to
\ndefine a safe atmospheric carrying capacity for satellite
\nlaunches and re-entries. Environmental assessments should
\ncover the full lifecycle, including atmospheric effects, and
\naddress both orbital safety and impacts on cultural
\nand research astronomy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Whatever the regulatory
\noutcome, using the atmosphere as a crematorium for
\nsatellites at this scale cannot be a solution.\"The<\/p>\n

Laura
\nRevell<\/a>, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, University
\nof Canterbury<\/a>; Michele
\nBannister<\/a>, Associate Professor in Planetary Astronomy,
\nUniversity
\nof Canterbury<\/a>, and Samantha
\nLawler<\/a>, Associate Professor, Astronomy, University
\nof Regina<\/a><\/p>\n

This article is
\nrepublished from The
\nConversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the
\noriginal
\narticle<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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